Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
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Analysis: (# of teams)
Exact Score: Score within 10 pts: Score within 20 pts: Score within 30 pts: Worst Score: Exact Place: Place within 1: Place within 2: Worst Place: Trophy (top-4) Teams: Victory Margin: (?) % avg's: |
2012
1 (4%) 13 (54%) 17 (71%) 21 (88%) -41 11 (46%) 18 (75%) 23 (96%) -3 4 + 3 (88%) 18 / 2 pts 65.3% |
2011
0 (0%) 11 (46%) 19 (79%) 23 (96%) -50 11 (46%) 21 (88%) 24 (100%) +2 / -2 4 + 4 (100%) 0 / 5 pts 69.4% |
2010
0 (0%) 8 (33%) 15 (63%) 17 (71%) -52 9 (38%) 20 (83%) 23 (96%) +3 3 + 4 (88%) 30 / 34 pts 48.6% |
2008
2 (7%) 11 (39%) 16 (57%) 20 (71%) +118 * 12 (43%) 20 (71%) 22 (79%) +6 * 3 + 4 (88%) 34 / 36 pts 56.9% |
2007
1 (4%) 10 (36%) 16 (57%) 22 (79%) +99 6 (21%) 14 (50%) 21 (75%) +9 3 + 3 (75%) 7 / 38 pts 49.6% |
2006
1 (4%) 8 (29%) 13 (46%) 17 (61%) -82 10 (36%) 17 (61%) 24 (86%) +5 3 + 3 (75%) 6 / 3 pts 49.8% |
2005
1 (3%) 10 (28%) 14 (39%) 24 (67%) +151 8 (22%) 16 (44%) 23 (64%) -7 4 + 3 (88%) 4 / 11 pts 44.4% |
* for corresponding note, see right column notes within that year's table below.
* percents are based on 18 (x2) teams in 2005, 14 teams for 2006-08, and 12 teams for 2010-13.
* red highlights indicate the best year for that particular summary stat.
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2012 Boys Team Projections
1. (54) Jesuit 2. (60) Central Catholic 3. (114) North Medford 4. (129) Sheldon 5. (130) Lakeridge 6. (149) Lincoln 7. (159) West Linn 8. (196) Barlow 9. (225) Forest Grove 10. (240) Tualatin 11. (264) West Salem 12. (386) McNary |
2012 Boys Results
1. (52) Central Catholic 2. (76) Jesuit 3. (85) North Medford 4. (127) Sheldon 5. (148) Lakeridge 6. (164) Barlow 7. (172) Lincoln 8. (176) West Linn 9. (221) Forest Grove 10. (250) West Salem 11. (252) Tualatin 12. (377) McNary |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-8, -1) (+22, +1) (-29, same) (-2, same) (+18, same) (-32, -2) (+23, +1) (+17, +1) (-4, same) (-14, -1) (+12, +1) (-9, same) |
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2012 Girls Team Projections
1. (70) Jesuit 2. (74) Grant 3. (87) South Eugene 4. (89) Sunset 5. (90) St Mary's 6. (180) South Medford 7. (204) Lakeridge 8. (242) Newberg 9. (243) Gresham 10. (248) Forest Grove 11. (287) West Salem 12. (306) South Salem |
2012 Girls Results
1. (66) Grant 2. (68) St. Mary's 3. (76) Jesuit 4. (82) Sunset 5. (95) South Eugene 6. (180) South Medford 7. (236) Lakeridge 8. (238) Forest Grove 9. (244) Gresham 10. (246) Newberg 11. (246) West Salem 12. (302) South Salem |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-8, -1) (-22, -3) (+6, +2 ... #2 runner DNF, ~11th with 1/2 mi to go) (-7, same) (+8, +2) (same, same) (+32, same) (-10, -2) (+1, same) (+4, +2) (-41, same) (-4, same) |
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2012 Boys Full Projections
2012 Girls Full Projections |
2012 Boys Results
2012 Girls Results |
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2011 Boys Team Projections
1. (68) South Eugene 2. (89) Central Catholic 3. (94) Jesuit 4. (97) Crater 5. (136) Barlow 6. (164) Lake Oswego 7. (185) Lakeridge 8. (191) Lincoln 9. (191) Forest Grove 10. (276) Tualatin 11. (294) West Salem 12. (294) North Salem |
2011 Boys Results
1. (56) South Eugene 2. (77) Central Catholic 3. (93) Crater 4. (97) Jesuit 5. (149) Barlow 6. (164) Lakeridge 7. (176) Lincoln 8. (192) Lake Oswego 9. (218) Forest Grove 10. (268) Tualatin 11. (286) West Salem 12. (290) North Salem |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-12, same) (-12, same) (-4, -1) (+3, +1) (+13, same) (-21, -1) (-15, -1) (+28, +2) (+27, same) (-8, same) (-8, same) (-4, same) |
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2011 Girls Team Projections
1. (58) South Eugene 2. (63) Jesuit 3. (72) Crater 4. (75) Sunset 5. (138) St. Mary's 6. (201) South Salem 7. (210) Lakeridge 8. (221) Grant 9. (240) Forest Grove 10. (241) Gresham 11. (273) Redmond 12. (284) Newberg |
2011 Girls Results
1. (53) South Eugene 2. (63) Crater 3. (70) Jesuit 4. (94) Sunset 5. (146) St. Mary's 6. (176) South Salem 7. (203) Grant 8. (223) Forest Grove 9. (223) Lakeridge 10. (234) Newberg 11. (251) Gresham 12. (263) Redmond |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-5, same) (-9, -1) (+7, +1) (+19, same) (+8, same) (-25, same) (-18, -1) (-17, -1) (+13, +2) (-50, -2) (+10, +1) (-10, +1) |
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2011 Boys Full Projections
2011 Girls Full Projections |
2011 Boys Results
2011 Girls Results All classes combined results |
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2010 Boys Team Projections
1. (49) Crater 2. (95) Jesuit 3. (98) Central Catholic 4. (122) West Linn 5. (128) South Eugene 6. (146) Reynolds 7. (160) Beaverton 8. (183) Tigard 9. (254) Lakeridge 10. (255) West Salem 11. (266) Forest Grove 12. (306) North Salem |
2010 Boys Results
1. (59) Crater 2. (75) Central Catholic 3. (101) Jesuit 4. (104) Reynolds 5. (108) Beaverton 6. (142) South Eugene 7. (157) West Linn 8. (169) Tigard 9. (231) Lakeridge 10. (233) Forest Grove 11. (262) West Salem 12. (338) North Salem |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(+10, same) (-23, -1) (+6, +1) (-42, -2) (-52, -2) (+14, +1) (+35, +3) (-14, same) (-23, same) (-33, -1) (+7, +1) (+32, same) |
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2010 Girls Team Projections
1. (34) Jesuit 2. (96) South Eugene 3. (106) Crater 4. (116) St. Mary's 5. (126) South Salem 6. (174) Tualatin 7. (188) Lakeridge 8. (190) Lincoln 9. (222) Tigard 10. (232) Grant 11. (275) Redmond 12. (297) Barlow |
2010 Girls Results
1. (48) Jesuit 2. (76) South Eugene 3. (99) Crater 4. (101) St. Mary's 5. (158) South Salem 6. (180) Lincoln 7. (193) Tualatin 8. (193) Lakeridge 9. (212) Grant 10. (230) Tigard 11. (259) Barlow 12. (280) Redmond |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(+14, same) (-20, same) (-7, same) (-15, same) (+32, same) (-10, -2) (+19, +1) (+5, +1) (-20, -1) (+8, +1) (-38, -1) (+5, +1) |
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2010 Boys Full Projections
2010 Girls Full Projections |
2010 Boys Results
2010 Girls Results |
The projections took a 1-year hiatus in 2009 due to insufficient consistency from week to week and course to course, resulting from crazy weather, wide-spread illness (year of the swine flu), and lots of apparently mismeasured courses. These factors combined to make the course comparison methodology of the projections a complete waste of time.
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2008 Boys Team Projections
1. (37) Jesuit 2. (123) Central Catholic 3. (142) West Linn 4. (158) Tigard 5. (164) Lake Oswego 6. (180) South Eugene 7. (185) Tualatin 8. (185) Lincoln 9. (210) North Medford 10. (212) Southridge 11. (245) South Salem 12. (248) Franklin 13. (268) Reynolds 14. (332) West Salem |
2008 Boys Results (Final Poll)
1. (27) Jesuit (#1) 2. (79) Central Catholic (#2) 3. (142) West Linn (#3t) 4. (163) Lake Oswego (#10) 5. (164) South Eugene (#6) 6. (177) North Medford (#12) 7. (185) Tualatin (#7) 8. (202) Reynolds (--) 9. (215) Lincoln (#8) 10. (227) Tigard (#3t) 11. (238) Franklin (#9) 12. (275) South Salem (#14t) 13. (330) Southridge (#5) 14. (338) West Salem (#14t) |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-10, same) (-44, same) (same, same) (-1, -1) (-16, -1) (-33, -3) (same, same) (-66, -5) (+30, +1) (+69, +6 ... #1 runner did not run) (-10, -1) (+30, +1) (+118, +3 ... #1 runner DNF) (+6, same) |
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2008 Girls Team Projections
1. (44) Jesuit 2. (80) St. Mary's 3. (148) South Eugene 4. (150) South Medford 5. (155) Tualatin 6. (182) Franklin 7. (187) Hood River 8. (195) West Linn 9. (198) Sunset 10. (213) Lincoln 11. (265) South Salem 12. (279) Lake Oswego 13. (290) Canby 14. (303) West Salem |
2008 Girls Results (Final Poll)
1. (36) Jesuit (#1) 2. (108) St. Mary's (#2) 3. (129) South Medford (#7) 4. (139) South Eugene (#5) 5. (166) Tualatin (#3) 6. (169) Lincoln (#8) 7. (182) Sunset (#9) 8. (192) Hood River (#10) 9. (198) Franklin (#4) 10. (209) West Linn (#6) 11. (251) South Salem (#11) 12. (277) Lake Oswego (#14) 13. (280) Canby (--) 14. (348) West Salem (#12t) |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-8, same) (+28, same) (-21, -1) (-9, +1) (+11, same) (-44, -4) (-16, -2) (+5, +1) (+16, +3 ... #2 runner DNF) (+14, +2) (-14, same) (-2, same) (-10, same) (+45, same) |
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2008 Boys Full Projections
2008 Girls Full Projections |
2008 Boys Results
2008 Girls Results |
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2007 Boys Team Projections
1. (53) Central Catholic 2. (81) Jesuit 3. (151) North Medford 4. (152) South Eugene 5. (157) Grant 6. (166) West Salem 7. (174) Clackamas 8. (224) West Linn 9. (235) Newberg 10. (247) Sunset 11. (252) Franklin 12. (256) Forest Grove 13. (260) McKay 14. (325) Reynolds |
2007 Boys Results (Final Poll)
1. (32) Central Catholic (#1) 2. (67) Jesuit (#2) 3. (147) Grant (#5) 4. (150) South Eugene (#3) 5. (156) North Medford (#4) 6. (164) Clackamas (#6) 7. (172) Newberg (#9) 8. (220) West Salem (#7) 9. (227) Franklin (--) 10. (228) West Linn (#8) 11. (282) Forest Grove (#11) 12. (288) McKay (--) 13. (306) Reynolds (--) 14. (319) Sunset (#10) |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-21, same) (-14, same) (-10, -2) (-2, same) (+5, +2) (-10, -1) (-63, -2) (+54, +2) (-25, -2) (+4, +2) (+26, -1) (+28, -1) (-19, -1) (+72, +4) |
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2007 Girls Team Projections
1. (26) Jesuit 2. (92) St. Mary's 3. (134) Tualatin 4. (156) South Eugene 5. (199) Gresham 6. (203) Tigard 7. (214) Lincoln 8. (217) West Linn 9. (224) Westview 10. (225) Lake Oswego 11. (228) South Salem 12. (233) South Medford 13. (291) Sprague 14. (313) Grant |
2007 Girls Results (Final Poll)
1. (35) Jesuit (#1) 2. (63) St. Mary's (#2) 3. (139) South Eugene (#3) 4. (184) Lake Oswego (#10) 5. (186) Gresham (#6) 6. (206) Westview (#9) 7. (217) West Linn (#7) 8. (218) South Medford (#11) 9. (220) South Salem (#8) 10. (224) Lincoln (--) 11. (232) Tigard (#4t) 12. (233) Tualatin (#4t) 13. (304) Grant (--) 14. (324) Sprague (--) |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(+9, same) (-29, same) (-17, -1) (-41, -6) (-13, same) (-18, -3) (same, -1) (-15, -4) (-8, -2) (+10, +3) (+29, +5) (+99, +9) (-9, -1) (+33, +1) |
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2007 Boys Full Projections
2007 Girls Full Projections |
2007 Boys Results
2007 Girls Results |
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2006 Boys Team Projections
1. (52) Central Catholic 2. (64) Jesuit 3. (98) Lincoln 4. (135) Canby 5. (161) South Eugene 6. (162) North Medford 7. (187) Clackamas 8. (232) West Salem 9. (236) Forest Grove 10. (250) Beaverton 11. (252) Reynolds 12. (256) Lakeridge 13. (325) Franklin 14. (342) McKay |
2006 Boys Results
1. (56) Central Catholic 2. (58) Jesuit 3. (64) Lincoln 4. (143) North Medford 5. (147) Clackamas 6. (151) South Eugene 7. (191) Forest Grove 8. (200) Beaverton 9. (204) Canby 10. (242) West Salem 11. (271) Lakeridge 12. (281) Reynolds 13. (302) Franklin 14. (409) McKay |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(+4, same) (-6, same) (-34, same) (-19, -2) (-40, -2) (-10, +1) (-45, -2) (-50, -2) (+69, +5) (+12, +2) (+15, -1) (+29, +1) (-23, same) (+67, same) |
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2006 Girls Team Projections
1. (43) Jesuit 2. (91) Sunset 3. (120) South Eugene 4. (137) Sheldon 5. (178) South Salem 6. (190) St. Mary's 7. (203) Tualatin 8. (204) Tigard 9. (242) Clackamas 10. (245) West Linn 11. (248) Lincoln 12. (258) Gresham 13. (273) Redmond 14. (336) Franklin |
2006 Girls Results
1. (56) Jesuit 2. (101) Sunset 3. (120) South Eugene 4. (121) Tualatin 5. (162) St. Mary's 6. (197) Sheldon 7. (205) Tigard 8. (210) Lincoln 9. (221) South Salem 10. (238) Clackamas 11. (239) Gresham 12. (242) West Linn 13. (312) Redmond 14. (363) Franklin |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(+13, same) (+10, same) (same, same) (-82, -3) (-28, -1) (+60, +2) (+1, -1) (-38, -3) (+43, +4) (-4, +1) (-19, -1) (-3, +2) (+39, same) (+27, same) |
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2006 Boys Full Projections
2006 Girls Full Projections |
2006 Boys Results
2006 Girls Results |
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
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2005 Boys Team Projections
1. (47) Central Catholic 2. (145) Summit 3. (147) Grant 4. (150) Jesuit 5. (161) St. Helens 6. (177) Hermiston 7. (207) South Eugene 8. (210) Clackamas 9. (220) Thurston 10. (248) Franklin 11. (259) Canby 12. (287) Ashland 13. (307) Forest Grove 14. (308) Centennial 15. (350) Crescent Valley 16. (360) North Medford 17. (414) Beaverton 18. (475) North Salem |
2005 Boys Results
1. (23) Central Catholic 2. (117) Summit 3. (140) Jesuit 4. (140) Grant 5. (177) Hermiston 6. (206) South Eugene 7. (210) Canby 8. (226) Ashland 9. (227) Clackamas 10. (257) St. Helens 11. (266) Thurston 12. (275) Franklin 13. (286) North Medford 14. (320) Crescent Valley 15. (337) Forest Grove 16. (339) Beaverton 17. (459) Centennial 18. (472) North Salem |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-24, same) (-28, same) (-10, -1) (-7, +1) (same, -1) (-1, -1) (-49, -4) (-61, -4) (+17, +1) (+96, +5) (+46, +2) (+27, +2) (-74, +3) (-30, -1) (+30, +2) (-75, -1) (+151, +3) (-3, same) |
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2005 Girls Team Projections
1. (68) Jesuit 2. (152) South Eugene 3. (186) Sunset 4. (196) Redmond 5. (202) Ashland 6. (215) Sheldon 7. (216) North Medford 8. (218) Lincoln 9. (221) Summit 10. (225) Crescent Valley 11. (234) West Linn 12. (237) Tualatin 13. (241) Clackamas 14. (333) Centennial 15. (374) South Salem 16. (374) Barlow 17. (379) Canby 18. (388) Grant |
2005 Girls Results
1. (60) Jesuit 2. (155) South Eugene 3. (158) Sunset 4. (181) North Medford 5. (192) Tualatin 6. (203) Summit 7. (211) Clackamas 8. (215) Lincoln 9. (217) Ashland 10. (232) Redmond 11. (239) Sheldon 12. (252) Crescent Valley 13. (265) West Linn 14. (344) Centennial 15. (364) Grant 16. (381) Canby 17. (383) South Salem 18. (506) Barlow |
(Pts/Place Discrepancy)
(-8, same) (+3, same) (-28, same) (-35, -3) (-45, -7) (-18, -3) (-30, -6) (-3, same) (+15, +4) (+36, +6) (+24, +5) (+27, +2) (+31, +2) (+11, same) (-24, -3) (+2, -1) (+9, +2) (+132, +2) |
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2005 Boys Full Projections
2005 Girls Full Projections |
2005 Boys Results (PDF)
2005 Girls Results (PDF) |
Who am I? Dan Kaplan, head XC coach at McKay HS from 2006 to 2008. I was the assistant coach when I first did these projections in '05. It began as an estimate of how our teams would fare in the State meet, if qualified, then grew into a full ranking of everyone qualified for State. Being unbiased in the projections when our team is involved is always difficult, but I do my best to not be a homer!
Unlike most predictions, I come back after the fact and analyze how good (or bad) they turned out to be...
