Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2010 Boys 6A Projections - updated 11/05 note: North Salem's #2 and #5 runners had soccer commitments # League State manual -- Matthew Melancon 16:30 15:10.4 Sheldon 12 -- Badane Sultessa 15:32.0 15:21.7 Centennial 12 1 Max Runia 17:11 15:51.4 15:22 Crater 12 2 Andy Bennison 15:34.0 15:23.7 C. Catholic 12 3 Jon Obeso 16:58 15:38.4 Crater 11 4 Taylor West 15:57.3 15:55.9 15:40 West Linn 12 5 Cullen Wannarka 16:01.3 15:59.9 15:41 West Linn 12 6 Wasil Ahmed 15:52.0 15:41.7 C. Catholic 12 -- Alex Foote 15:33.0 15:42.8 Aloha 12 7 Neil Seibert 17:27 16:07.4 15:45 Crater 11 8 Kyle Thompson 15:56.0 15:45.7 C. Catholic 9 9 Jack Hagler 15:48.6 15:46.3 Jesuit 12 -- Kyle Ruhlin 17:08 15:48.4 Thurston 12 10 David Leavy 15:50.4 15:48.1 Jesuit 11 11 Hunter Sanders 17:10 15:50.4 Crater 12 -- Ryan Perry 17:10 15:50.4 S. Medford 12 -- Zach Newsom 15:41.8 15:51.6 Sunset 12 12 Kevin Kavanaugh 15:42.2 15:52.0 Beaverton 10 -- Jackson Darland 17:12 15:52.4 Sheldon 10 13 Nick Roche 15:57.0 15:56.2 Tigard 12 14 Alex Mauro 17:16 15:56.4 S. Eugene 12 -- Trenton Kershner 16:11.2 16:08.3 15:58 Redmond 12 -- Sky Lofgran 15:50.9 16:00.7 Lincoln 11 15 Jake Taylor 16:11.0 16:00.7 Reynolds 12 16 Joe Holvey 17:21 16:01.4 S. Eugene 11 17 Bekama Jaldi 16:12.0 16:01.7 Reynolds 12 18 Mubark Mebrat 16:12.0 16:01.7 Reynolds 11 19 Mark Medgin 16:03.0 16:02.2 Tigard 12 -- Sam Pitcavage 15:53.6 16:03.4 Westview 12 -- Nathan Love 16:08.0 16:07.2 Tualatin 11 20 Dan Oekerman 15:59.8 16:09.6 Beaverton 10 21 Julian Heninger 16:12.6 16:11.2 Lakeridge 10 22 Daivik Orth 16:01.4 16:11.2 Beaverton 12 -- Brandon Schmuckley 16:22.0 16:11.7 Centennial 12 -- Todd Macdonald 16:13.7 16:12.3 Lake Oswego 10 23 Steven Raimondi 16:17.3 16:15.0 Jesuit 12 24 Hunter McGuirk 16:17.7 16:15.4 Jesuit 10 25 Josh Johnson 16:20.0 16:19.2 Forest Grove 12 26 Jack Wilson 17:40 16:20.4 S. Eugene 11 27 Daniel Stober 17:40 16:20.4 Crater 10 28 Cody Franklin 16:27.2 16:24.3 N. Salem 12 29 Joshua Sealand 16:27.3 16:25.0 Jesuit 9 -- Bo McCullough 16:26.0 16:25.2 Hillsboro 11 30 Tim Donnelly 16:27.3 16:25.9 West Linn 12 31 Ryan Stevens 16:29.1 16:26.8 Jesuit 11 32 Trent Dudley 16:30.3 16:27.4 W. Salem 12 33 Henry Murphy 16:29.8 16:27.5 Jesuit 12 -- Jackson Haselnus 16:38.0 16:27.7 Barlow 10 34 Piers Rasmussen 17:49 16:29.4 Crater 11 35 Cameron Martin 17:49 16:29.4 S. Eugene 10 36 Greg Cruz 17:02.0 16:51.7 16:30 C. Catholic 12 37 Kevin Chang 17:50 16:30.4 S. Eugene 12 -- Myles Horton 16:32.0 16:31.2 McMinnville 12 38 Mario Gaddini 17:53 16:33.4 S. Eugene 12 39 Zach Boyd-Helm 16:35.0 16:33.6 West Linn 12 40 Tino Melton-Holdman 16:44.0 16:33.7 Reynolds 12 41 Aaron Kirch 16:35.0 16:34.2 Tigard 12 42 David Clark 16:37.4 16:34.5 W. Salem 11 43 Alec Koh 16:35.9 16:34.5 Lakeridge 11 -- Alan Johnston 16:39.2 16:37.8 Clackamas 11 44 Jefferson Chandler 16:42.0 16:40.6 West Linn 12 -- Dylan Hanson 16:51.0 16:40.7 Gresham 11 45 Daniel Bellissimo 18:03 16:43.4 S. Eugene 12 46 Trevor Schmidt 16:55.0 16:44.7 C. Catholic 10 47 Michael Garcia 16:47.0 16:46.2 Forest Grove 9 48 Hussein Mohamed 16:36.5 16:46.3 Beaverton 11 49 Graham Frank 16:50.5 16:49.1 West Linn 12 -- Nathan Meeker 16:50.9 16:49.5 Oregon City 11 -- Daniel Douvris 16:51.0 16:50.2 Glencoe 11 50 John Walker 16:51.0 16:50.2 Tigard 10 -- Jacob Atkinson 16:54.5 16:51.6 Sprague 10 51 Andrew Green 17:02.0 16:51.7 C. Catholic 10 -- Jared Bell 16:53.5 16:52.1 Lake Oswego 9 52 Jordan Landstrom 17:04.0 16:53.7 C. Catholic 10 53 Francisco Ruiz 18:15 16:55.4 Crater 9 54 Emanuel Kraynick 16:59.8 16:56.9 W. Salem 10 55 Brendan Abel 17:02.3 16:59.4 W. Salem 10 56 Brandon Raleigh 17:10.0 16:59.7 Reynolds 10 57 Ramon Villa 17:02.8 16:59.9 N. Salem 11 58 Jeff Reintjes 16:50.8 17:00.6 Beaverton 12 59 Sergio Olmos 17:03.7 17:00.8 N. Salem 12 60 Austin Dean 17:02.0 17:01.2 Tigard 12 61 Colton Ansberry 17:04.1 17:02.7 Lakeridge 10 62 Lukas Ericson 17:06.1 17:04.7 Lakeridge 12 63 Tyler Shipley 17:07.0 17:06.2 Forest Grove 11 64 Keenan Follet 17:17.0 17:06.7 Reynolds 10 65 James Myers 17:08.0 17:07.2 Forest Grove 12 66 James McCahon 17:10.0 17:09.2 Forest Grove 11 67 Austin Russell 17:12.7 17:11.3 Lakeridge 12 -- Nathaniel Roberts 17:16.3 17:13.4 Sprague 9 -- Andrew Jensen 17:17.0 17:14.1 S. Salem 11 68 Scott Rice 17:18.0 17:17.2 Tigard 11 69 Christian Veillet 17:19.5 17:18.1 Lakeridge 11 70 Jordan Carroll 17:28.0 17:27.2 Tigard 12 71 Michael Walker 17:29.9 17:28.5 Lakeridge 10 72 Matthew Thomas 17:31.4 17:28.5 W. Salem 11 73 Sean Barr 17:32.0 17:29.1 W. Salem 10 74 Connor Cushman 17:30.6 17:29.2 West Linn 10 75 Dashiel Penfield 17:33.0 17:32.2 Forest Grove 12 76 C.J. Johnson 17:33.0 17:32.2 Forest Grove 11 77 Birukidin Jaldi 17:49.0 17:38.7 Reynolds 11 78 Ben Whitenack 17:41.9 17:39.0 W. Salem 11 79 Paul Kirse 17:29.7 17:39.5 Beaverton 12 80 Carlos Flores 18:11.5 18:08.6 N. Salem 10 81 Jackson Jarman-Miller 18:00.3 18:10.2 Beaverton 12 82 Lee Lindley 18:26.1 18:23.2 N. Salem 11 83 Alex Ojeda 18:39.5 18:36.6 N. Salem 12 84 Alberto Alvarez 18:47.4 18:44.5 N. Salem 12 1) Crater 1 - 3 - 7 - 11 - 27 - (34) - (53) = 49 2) Jesuit 9 - 10 - 23 - 24 - 29 - (31) - (33) = 95 3) C. Catholic 2 - 6 - 8 - 36 - 46 - (51) - (52) = 98 4) West Linn 4 - 5 - 30 - 39 - 44 - (49) - (74) = 122 5) S. Eugene 14 - 16 - 26 - 35 - 37 - (38) - (45) = 128 6) Reynolds 15 - 17 - 18 - 40 - 56 - (64) - (77) = 146 7) Beaverton 12 - 20 - 22 - 48 - 58 - (79) - (81) = 160 8) Tigard 13 - 19 - 41 - 50 - 60 - (68) - (70) = 183 9) Lakeridge 21 - 43 - 61 - 62 - 67 - (69) - (71) = 254 10) W. Salem 32 - 42 - 54 - 55 - 72 - (73) - (78) = 255 11) Forest Grove 25 - 47 - 63 - 65 - 66 - (75) - (76) = 266 12) N. Salem 28 - 57 - 59 - 80 - 82 - (83) - (84) = 306 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
