Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2015 Girls 6A Projections # Pts Name Time GR School 1 1 Ella Donaghu 17:42.6 12 Grant 2 2 Ember Stratton 17:50.2 9 Sunset 3 3 Elizabeth Rinck 17:59.5 9 Jesuit 4 4 Anna Chau 18:05.6 9 South Salem 5 5 Nicole Griffiths 18:08.8 12 Sunset 6 6 Melissa Berry 18:09.2 10 Sheldon 7 7 Ginger Murnieks 18:16.3 9 Sprague 8 8 Audrey Huelskamp 18:22.3 12 Sunset 9 9 Kelly Makin 18:24.6 10 Sunset 10 10 Hallie DeVore 18:30.8 9 Jesuit 11 11 Isabel Huelskamp 18:35.3 12 Sunset 12 12 Kate Intile 18:39.2 11 Tualatin 13 13 Alyssa Foote 18:41.0 12 Aloha 14 14 Annie Richards 18:44.3 12 South Eugene 15 15 Caramia Mestler 18:52.5 10 Sheldon 16 16 Lacey Conner 18:52.9 12 St Mary's Academy 17 17 Makenna Schumacher 18:55.8 9 Jesuit 18 18 Kyla Becker 18:59.4 9 Lincoln 19 -- Brooke Chuhlantseff 19:00.3 12 West Salem 20 19 Jennifer Shelton 19:02.1 9 Sheldon 21 20 Kennedy Allen 19:02.5 12 David Douglas 22 21 Sarah Lyell 19:03.7 9 Lakeridge 23 -- Madison Willhoft 19:03.9 10 North Salem 24 22 Keely McCormick 19:04.8 10 Jesuit 25 23 Lauren Hamilton 19:05.2 12 Sheldon 26 -- Grace Heizer 19:05.3 10 Wilson 27 24 Annika Steele 19:07.0 11 Lincoln 28 25 Greta Anderson 19:09.9 9 Jesuit 29 -- Olivia Johnson 19:10.4 11 Barlow 30 26 Sarah Hanson 19:10.4 9 Tualatin 31 27 Casey Sauter 19:11.5 12 South Eugene 32 (28) Kim Sanders 19:12.6 11 Jesuit 33 29 Jantzen Mazziotti 19:16.3 11 Sheldon 34 (30) Grace Beal 19:16.8 9 Sunset 35 31 Clare Ebert 19:17.3 10 North Medford 36 32 Lara Rix 19:21.1 11 St Mary's Academy 37 -- Rebecca Sidlo 19:23.8 12 Roseburg 38 33 Rennie Kendrick 19:25.5 12 Grant 39 (34) Aimee Piercy 19:25.6 12 Jesuit 40 -- Kailey Doutt 19:26.1 10 McNary 41 -- Dulcie Jones 19:26.2 11 Lake Oswego 42 35 Kaari Guelsdorf 19:28.3 10 Oregon City 43 -- Ahdra Klingler 19:29.8 9 Grants Pass 44 -- Grace David 19:30.2 10 Lake Oswego 45 -- Whitney Rich 19:31.2 12 McMinnville 46 -- Johanna Briscoe 19:33.9 11 West Linn 47 36 Victoria Boechler 19:34.2 11 South Eugene 48 37 Taylor Nickel 19:35.8 12 Aloha 49 38 Mary Skakel 19:35.9 9 Lincoln 50 -- Lindy Voss 19:36.9 11 Sherwood 51 39 Rowan Halsey 19:38.3 10 St Mary's Academy 52 40 Anna Martinez 19:41.1 11 Aloha 53 41 Macey Holt 19:41.5 9 Grant 54 42 Batya Beard 19:41.8 12 St Mary's Academy 55 43 Thea Foulk 19:45.9 12 Grant 56 44 Brooklyn James 19:46.7 10 Clackamas 57 45 Victoria Messer 19:48.4 10 North Medford 58 (46) Na'ama Nevo 19:49.6 9 Sunset 59 47 Alexa Hayes 19:49.8 10 Clackamas 60 48 Madi Lowry 19:51.7 10 Tualatin 61 49 Zelia Naefen 19:53.0 12 Grant 62 50 Cecilia Wong 19:55.8 12 Franklin 63 -- Jaden Mandal 19:55.8 9 West Salem 64 51 Kylie Guelsdorf 19:57.4 10 Oregon City 65 52 Isabel Leonard 19:58.2 12 Franklin 66 53 Eleanor Schnorr 19:58.5 11 Forest Grove 67 54 Ellie Kobak 19:59.0 10 Lincoln 68 -- Anika Rasubala 20:0.5 12 McKay 69 55 Delaney Hartmann 20:02.2 11 Franklin 70 -- Erica Veltkamp 20:03.7 12 Centennial 71 -- Ally Legard 20:04.4 11 McMinnville 72 (56) Kaylin Sheley 20:04.9 9 Sheldon 73 57 Lilly Bar 20:05.1 9 Lakeridge 74 58 Rosemary Elliot 20:06.2 11 Franklin 75 59 Amanda Hegstrom 20:06.3 11 Tualatin 76 60 Mia Yerton 20:07.7 10 Lincoln 77 61 Isabel Caplazi 20:09.1 11 Clackamas 78 (62) Stephanie Hamilton 20:09.4 11 Lincoln 79 63 Shiloh Najjar 20:09.9 10 Oregon City 80 64 Cara Hettick 20:11.7 12 South Eugene 81 65 Elise Abbott 20:11.8 9 Sprague 82 66 Alyson Miura 20:12.4 9 Clackamas 83 67 Hannah Aguirre 20:13.6 9 Forest Grove 84 68 Sage Czelder 20:14.1 12 Aloha 85 69 Jaci Brumble 20:15.6 12 North Medford 86 70 Allie Edwards 20:15.7 10 Oregon City 87 71 Heather Kristoff 20:16.8 11 Aloha 88 72 Claire Wittenberg 20:17.1 12 South Salem 89 73 Elizabeth Khoury 20:17.1 9 Forest Grove 90 (74) Grace Greaves 20:18.0 10 Aloha 91 75 Eva Svoboda 20:20.6 9 Lakeridge 92 76 Eleanor Tetreault 20:22.6 11 Franklin 93 77 Elli Newman 20:23.7 12 Lakeridge 94 78 Sophie French 20:26.1 12 Lakeridge 95 79 Ashley Ulberg 20:26.9 10 Tualatin 96 80 Jessica Diaz 20:30.1 11 North Medford 97 (81) Katie Baughman 20:33.6 10 Grant 98 (82) Gilian Foley 20:34.0 11 Grant 99 (83) Sydney Wardan 20:34.5 12 Sheldon 100 84 Sarah Krick 20:34.7 9 North Medford 101 85 Ellie Stuart 20:36.2 9 Sprague 102 86 Parker Kolpin 20:37.5 12 South Eugene 103 (87) Maj Wehrmeister 20:38.9 11 Lakeridge 104 88 Rebecca Blackwood 20:40.1 11 Oregon City 105 89 Stephanie Wood 20:41.3 12 David Douglas 106 (90) Abigail Dalke 20:43.6 11 Lincoln 107 (91) Lillie French 20:44.3 12 Lakeridge 108 92 Hailey Clifford 20:45.0 11 South Salem 109 93 Nancy Pelayo 20:47.2 12 David Douglas 110 (94) Emmalyn Lindsey 20:48.9 12 South Eugene 111 95 Kate Patterson 20:51.3 12 St Mary's Academy 112 (96) Mabel Miller 20:55.3 11 Franklin 113 (97) Emma Harbison 20:57.1 11 Franklin 114 (98) Nyah Songster 21:02.1 9 Aloha 115 (99) Ella Behnke 21:04.4 10 St Mary's Academy 116 100 Hanna Do 21:15.0 10 Clackamas 117 (101) Nicole Mowery 21:16.7 12 South Eugene 118 (102) Maddie Ott 21:17.6 10 St Mary's Academy 119 103 Esther Vega 21:19.6 11 Forest Grove 120 104 Lucia Mendoza 21:21.9 10 Forest Grove 121 105 Adriana Cordova 21:24.4 11 South Salem 122 (106) Natalie Pihulak 21:28.0 10 Clackamas 123 107 Rikka Gustey 21:28.8 12 David Douglas 124 (108) Katlynn Suregon 21:32.0 11 North Medford 125 109 Jazlyn Collier 21:39.5 11 Sprague 126 (110) Nicole Oh 21:40.6 11 Tualatin 127 (111) Ciara James 21:42.2 10 Clackamas 128 (112) Maddie Dean 21:45.1 9 Tualatin 129 113 Morgan Henry 21:48.5 10 David Douglas 130 (114) Hannah Berdahl 21:48.5 10 Forest Grove 131 115 Harmony Alvarez 21:54.8 11 South Salem 132 116 Emily Dixon 21:55.5 11 Sprague 133 (117) Edna Fernandez-Her... 21:57.4 12 David Douglas 134 (118) Rebecca Zareva 22:06.1 9 Oregon City 135 (119) Jenna Beyer 22:13.6 12 Oregon City 136 (120) Riely White 22:15.5 10 Sprague 137 (121) Lydia Gronseth 22:27.8 12 Forest Grove 138 (122) Molly Barker 22:32.6 11 David Douglas 139 (123) Hannah Clifford 22:33.5 11 South Salem 140 (124) Ellie Slama 22:45.6 11 South Salem 141 (125) Gillian Griffin 22:45.8 12 Sprague 142 (126) Kate Poet 22:51.2 11 North Medford 1) Sunset 2 - 5 - 8 - 9 - 11 - (30) - (46) = 35 (#1-5 spread = 45.1 sec) 2) Jesuit 3 - 10 - 17 - 22 - 25 - (28) - (34) = 77 (#1-5 spread = 70.4 sec) 3) Sheldon 6 - 15 - 19 - 23 - 29 - (56) - (83) = 92 (#1-5 spread = 67.1 sec) 4) Grant 1 - 33 - 41 - 43 - 49 - (81) - (82) = 167 (#1-5 spread = 130.4 sec) 5) Lincoln 18 - 24 - 38 - 54 - 60 - (62) - (90) = 194 (#1-5 spread = 68.3 sec) 6) Tualatin 12 - 26 - 48 - 59 - 79 - (110) - (112) = 224 (#1-5 spread = 107.7 sec) 7) St Mary's Academy 16 - 32 - 39 - 42 - 95 - (99) - (102) = 224 (#1-5 spread = 118.4 sec) 8) South Eugene 14 - 27 - 36 - 64 - 86 - (94) - (101) = 227 (#1-5 spread = 113.2 sec) 9) Aloha 13 - 37 - 40 - 68 - 71 - (74) - (98) = 229 (#1-5 spread = 95.8 sec) 10) Franklin 50 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 76 - (96) - (97) = 291 (#1-5 spread = 26.8 sec) 11) Oregon City 35 - 51 - 63 - 70 - 88 - (118) - (119) = 307 (#1-5 spread = 71.8 sec) 12) Lakeridge 21 - 57 - 75 - 77 - 78 - (87) - (91) = 308 (#1-5 spread = 82.4 sec) 13) North Medford 31 - 45 - 69 - 80 - 84 - (108) - (126) = 309 (#1-5 spread = 77.4 sec) 14) Clackamas 44 - 47 - 61 - 66 - 100 - (106) - (111) = 318 (#1-5 spread = 88.3 sec) 15) Sprague 7 - 65 - 85 - 109 - 116 - (120) - (125) = 382 (#1-5 spread = 219.2 sec) 16) South Salem 4 - 72 - 92 - 105 - 115 - (123) - (124) = 388 (#1-5 spread = 229.2 sec) 17) Forest Grove 53 - 67 - 73 - 103 - 104 - (114) - (121) = 400 (#1-5 spread = 83.4 sec) 18) David Douglas 20 - 89 - 93 - 107 - 113 - (117) - (122) = 422 (#1-5 spread = 166 sec) Course adjustments applied this year: GVC +12.3 Metro +14.6 MHC +13.6 PIL +0.0 SWC -13.7 TRL -6.9 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons. Special thanks to David Bowdoin / athletic.net for help in compiling the data.