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Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2015 Girls 6A Projections

#	Pts	Name	Time	GR	School
1	1	Ella Donaghu	17:42.6	12	Grant
2	2	Ember Stratton	17:50.2	9	Sunset
3	3	Elizabeth Rinck	17:59.5	9	Jesuit
4	4	Anna Chau	18:05.6	9	South Salem
5	5	Nicole Griffiths	18:08.8	12	Sunset
6	6	Melissa Berry	18:09.2	10	Sheldon
7	7	Ginger Murnieks	18:16.3	9	Sprague
8	8	Audrey Huelskamp	18:22.3	12	Sunset
9	9	Kelly Makin	18:24.6	10	Sunset
10	10	Hallie DeVore	18:30.8	9	Jesuit
11	11	Isabel Huelskamp	18:35.3	12	Sunset
12	12	Kate Intile	18:39.2	11	Tualatin
13	13	Alyssa Foote	18:41.0	12	Aloha
14	14	Annie Richards	18:44.3	12	South Eugene
15	15	Caramia Mestler	18:52.5	10	Sheldon
16	16	Lacey Conner	18:52.9	12	St Mary's Academy
17	17	Makenna Schumacher	18:55.8	9	Jesuit
18	18	Kyla Becker	18:59.4	9	Lincoln
19	--	Brooke Chuhlantseff	19:00.3	12	West Salem
20	19	Jennifer Shelton	19:02.1	9	Sheldon
21	20	Kennedy Allen	19:02.5	12	David Douglas
22	21	Sarah Lyell	19:03.7	9	Lakeridge
23	--	Madison Willhoft	19:03.9	10	North Salem
24	22	Keely McCormick	19:04.8	10	Jesuit
25	23	Lauren Hamilton	19:05.2	12	Sheldon
26	--	Grace Heizer	19:05.3	10	Wilson
27	24	Annika Steele	19:07.0	11	Lincoln
28	25	Greta Anderson	19:09.9	9	Jesuit
29	--	Olivia Johnson	19:10.4	11	Barlow
30	26	Sarah Hanson	19:10.4	9	Tualatin
31	27	Casey Sauter	19:11.5	12	South Eugene
32	(28)	Kim Sanders	19:12.6	11	Jesuit
33	29	Jantzen Mazziotti	19:16.3	11	Sheldon
34	(30)	Grace Beal	19:16.8	9	Sunset
35	31	Clare Ebert	19:17.3	10	North Medford
36	32	Lara Rix	19:21.1	11	St Mary's Academy
37	--	Rebecca Sidlo	19:23.8	12	Roseburg
38	33	Rennie Kendrick	19:25.5	12	Grant
39	(34)	Aimee Piercy	19:25.6	12	Jesuit
40	--	Kailey Doutt	19:26.1	10	McNary
41	--	Dulcie Jones	19:26.2	11	Lake Oswego
42	35	Kaari Guelsdorf	19:28.3	10	Oregon City
43	--	Ahdra Klingler	19:29.8	9	Grants Pass
44	--	Grace David	19:30.2	10	Lake Oswego
45	--	Whitney Rich	19:31.2	12	McMinnville
46	--	Johanna Briscoe	19:33.9	11	West Linn
47	36	Victoria Boechler	19:34.2	11	South Eugene
48	37	Taylor Nickel	19:35.8	12	Aloha
49	38	Mary Skakel	19:35.9	9	Lincoln
50	--	Lindy Voss	19:36.9	11	Sherwood
51	39	Rowan Halsey	19:38.3	10	St Mary's Academy
52	40	Anna Martinez	19:41.1	11	Aloha
53	41	Macey Holt	19:41.5	9	Grant
54	42	Batya Beard	19:41.8	12	St Mary's Academy
55	43	Thea Foulk	19:45.9	12	Grant
56	44	Brooklyn James	19:46.7	10	Clackamas
57	45	Victoria Messer	19:48.4	10	North Medford
58	(46)	Na'ama Nevo	19:49.6	9	Sunset
59	47	Alexa Hayes	19:49.8	10	Clackamas
60	48	Madi Lowry	19:51.7	10	Tualatin
61	49	Zelia Naefen	19:53.0	12	Grant
62	50	Cecilia Wong	19:55.8	12	Franklin
63	--	Jaden Mandal	19:55.8	9	West Salem
64	51	Kylie Guelsdorf	19:57.4	10	Oregon City
65	52	Isabel Leonard	19:58.2	12	Franklin
66	53	Eleanor Schnorr	19:58.5	11	Forest Grove
67	54	Ellie Kobak	19:59.0	10	Lincoln
68	--	Anika Rasubala	20:0.5	12	McKay
69	55	Delaney Hartmann	20:02.2	11	Franklin
70	--	Erica Veltkamp	20:03.7	12	Centennial
71	--	Ally Legard	20:04.4	11	McMinnville
72	(56)	Kaylin Sheley	20:04.9	9	Sheldon
73	57	Lilly Bar	20:05.1	9	Lakeridge
74	58	Rosemary Elliot	20:06.2	11	Franklin
75	59	Amanda Hegstrom	20:06.3	11	Tualatin
76	60	Mia Yerton	20:07.7	10	Lincoln
77	61	Isabel Caplazi	20:09.1	11	Clackamas
78	(62)	Stephanie Hamilton	20:09.4	11	Lincoln
79	63	Shiloh Najjar	20:09.9	10	Oregon City
80	64	Cara Hettick	20:11.7	12	South Eugene
81	65	Elise Abbott	20:11.8	9	Sprague
82	66	Alyson Miura	20:12.4	9	Clackamas
83	67	Hannah Aguirre	20:13.6	9	Forest Grove
84	68	Sage Czelder	20:14.1	12	Aloha
85	69	Jaci Brumble	20:15.6	12	North Medford
86	70	Allie Edwards	20:15.7	10	Oregon City
87	71	Heather Kristoff	20:16.8	11	Aloha
88	72	Claire Wittenberg	20:17.1	12	South Salem
89	73	Elizabeth Khoury	20:17.1	9	Forest Grove
90	(74)	Grace Greaves	20:18.0	10	Aloha
91	75	Eva Svoboda	20:20.6	9	Lakeridge
92	76	Eleanor Tetreault	20:22.6	11	Franklin
93	77	Elli Newman	20:23.7	12	Lakeridge
94	78	Sophie French	20:26.1	12	Lakeridge
95	79	Ashley Ulberg	20:26.9	10	Tualatin
96	80	Jessica Diaz	20:30.1	11	North Medford
97	(81)	Katie Baughman	20:33.6	10	Grant
98	(82)	Gilian Foley	20:34.0	11	Grant
99	(83)	Sydney Wardan	20:34.5	12	Sheldon
100	84	Sarah Krick	20:34.7	9	North Medford
101	85	Ellie Stuart	20:36.2	9	Sprague
102	86	Parker Kolpin	20:37.5	12	South Eugene
103	(87)	Maj Wehrmeister	20:38.9	11	Lakeridge
104	88	Rebecca Blackwood	20:40.1	11	Oregon City
105	89	Stephanie Wood	20:41.3	12	David Douglas
106	(90)	Abigail Dalke	20:43.6	11	Lincoln
107	(91)	Lillie French	20:44.3	12	Lakeridge
108	92	Hailey Clifford	20:45.0	11	South Salem
109	93	Nancy Pelayo	20:47.2	12	David Douglas
110	(94)	Emmalyn Lindsey	20:48.9	12	South Eugene
111	95	Kate Patterson	20:51.3	12	St Mary's Academy
112	(96)	Mabel Miller	20:55.3	11	Franklin
113	(97)	Emma Harbison	20:57.1	11	Franklin
114	(98)	Nyah Songster	21:02.1	9	Aloha
115	(99)	Ella Behnke	21:04.4	10	St Mary's Academy
116	100	Hanna Do	21:15.0	10	Clackamas
117	(101)	Nicole Mowery	21:16.7	12	South Eugene
118	(102)	Maddie Ott	21:17.6	10	St Mary's Academy
119	103	Esther Vega	21:19.6	11	Forest Grove
120	104	Lucia Mendoza	21:21.9	10	Forest Grove
121	105	Adriana Cordova	21:24.4	11	South Salem
122	(106)	Natalie Pihulak	21:28.0	10	Clackamas
123	107	Rikka Gustey	21:28.8	12	David Douglas
124	(108)	Katlynn Suregon	21:32.0	11	North Medford
125	109	Jazlyn Collier	21:39.5	11	Sprague
126	(110)	Nicole Oh	21:40.6	11	Tualatin
127	(111)	Ciara James	21:42.2	10	Clackamas
128	(112)	Maddie Dean	21:45.1	9	Tualatin
129	113	Morgan Henry	21:48.5	10	David Douglas
130	(114)	Hannah Berdahl	21:48.5	10	Forest Grove
131	115	Harmony Alvarez	21:54.8	11	South Salem
132	116	Emily Dixon	21:55.5	11	Sprague
133	(117)	Edna Fernandez-Her...	21:57.4	12	David Douglas
134	(118)	Rebecca Zareva	22:06.1	9	Oregon City
135	(119)	Jenna Beyer	22:13.6	12	Oregon City
136	(120)	Riely White	22:15.5	10	Sprague
137	(121)	Lydia Gronseth	22:27.8	12	Forest Grove
138	(122)	Molly Barker	22:32.6	11	David Douglas
139	(123)	Hannah Clifford	22:33.5	11	South Salem
140	(124)	Ellie Slama	22:45.6	11	South Salem
141	(125)	Gillian Griffin	22:45.8	12	Sprague
142	(126)	Kate Poet	22:51.2	11	North Medford

1) Sunset	 	2 - 5 - 8 - 9 - 11 - (30) - (46) = 35	  	(#1-5 spread = 45.1 sec)
2) Jesuit	 	3 - 10 - 17 - 22 - 25 - (28) - (34) = 77	  	(#1-5 spread = 70.4 sec)
3) Sheldon	 	6 - 15 - 19 - 23 - 29 - (56) - (83) = 92	  	(#1-5 spread = 67.1 sec)
4) Grant	 	1 - 33 - 41 - 43 - 49 - (81) - (82) = 167	  	(#1-5 spread = 130.4 sec)
5) Lincoln	 	18 - 24 - 38 - 54 - 60 - (62) - (90) = 194	  	(#1-5 spread = 68.3 sec)
6) Tualatin	 	12 - 26 - 48 - 59 - 79 - (110) - (112) = 224	  	(#1-5 spread = 107.7 sec)
7) St Mary's Academy	 	16 - 32 - 39 - 42 - 95 - (99) - (102) = 224	  	(#1-5 spread = 118.4 sec)
8) South Eugene	 	14 - 27 - 36 - 64 - 86 - (94) - (101) = 227	  	(#1-5 spread = 113.2 sec)
9) Aloha	 	13 - 37 - 40 - 68 - 71 - (74) - (98) = 229	  	(#1-5 spread = 95.8 sec)
10) Franklin	 	50 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 76 - (96) - (97) = 291	  	(#1-5 spread = 26.8 sec)
11) Oregon City	 	35 - 51 - 63 - 70 - 88 - (118) - (119) = 307	  	(#1-5 spread = 71.8 sec)
12) Lakeridge	 	21 - 57 - 75 - 77 - 78 - (87) - (91) = 308	  	(#1-5 spread = 82.4 sec)
13) North Medford	 	31 - 45 - 69 - 80 - 84 - (108) - (126) = 309	  	(#1-5 spread = 77.4 sec)
14) Clackamas	 	44 - 47 - 61 - 66 - 100 - (106) - (111) = 318	  	(#1-5 spread = 88.3 sec)
15) Sprague	 	7 - 65 - 85 - 109 - 116 - (120) - (125) = 382	  	(#1-5 spread = 219.2 sec)
16) South Salem	 	4 - 72 - 92 - 105 - 115 - (123) - (124) = 388	  	(#1-5 spread = 229.2 sec)
17) Forest Grove	 	53 - 67 - 73 - 103 - 104 - (114) - (121) = 400	  	(#1-5 spread = 83.4 sec)
18) David Douglas	 	20 - 89 - 93 - 107 - 113 - (117) - (122) = 422	  	(#1-5 spread = 166 sec)

Course adjustments applied this year:
GVC +12.3
Metro +14.6
MHC +13.6
PIL +0.0
SWC -13.7
TRL -6.9

The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top
runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied
as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at
sub-maximal efforts.  I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top
few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be
faster, some will be slower, so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to
take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in
the thick of the pack.  The focus is on average team placement moreso than
individuals.  A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets
or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of
bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key
to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the
various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying
individuals to compare respective courses.  This is often complicated by the
over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one
meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for
less consistent comparisons.

Special thanks to David Bowdoin / athletic.net for help in compiling the data.