Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2012 Boys 6A Projections # League State 1 11 Kyle Thompson 15:24.2 15:39.6 Central Catholic -- 12 Dan Oekerman 15:14.7 15:40.1 Beaverton 2 12 Jackson Darland 16:05.8 16:01.5 Sheldon 3 12 Julian Heninger 16:19.2 16:01.9 Lakeridge 4 12 Jackson Haselnus 15:49.9 16:05.3 Barlow -- 11 Kenny Freeman 16:09.7 16:05.4 Roseburg 5 11 TJ Wright 16:10.1 16:05.8 Sheldon 6 12 Josh Sealand 15:42.5 16:07.9 Jesuit 7 12 Tanner Smith 15:42.8 16:08.2 Lincoln -- 12 Taylor Hybl 15:54.6 16:10.0 Centennial 8 11 Sam Remington 15:49.2 16:14.6 Jesuit -- 12 Liam Chapin-Jones 16:20.1 16:15.8 South Eugene 9 12 Brian McDavitt 15:50.8 16:16.2 Jesuit 10 10 Sam Lomax 16:01.1 16:16.5 Central Catholic -- 12 RJ Morgan 15:52.7 16:18.1 Westview -- 12 Daniel Stoiber 16:23.9 16:19.6 Crater -- 12 Todd Macdonald 16:37.4 16:20.1 Lake Oswego -- 12 Matthew Kingzett 15:55.1 16:20.5 Westview -- 10 Reilly Bloomer 16:25.0 16:20.7 South Eugene -- 11 Ian Stevens 16:06.0 16:21.4 Reynolds 11 12 Blake Spencer 16:25.7 16:21.4 North Medford 12 11 Ray Schireman 16:26.9 16:22.6 North Medford 13 12 Nico Banks 15:58.0 16:23.4 Lincoln 14 12 Hunter McGuirk 16:00.4 16:25.8 Jesuit 15 12 Jordan Landstrom 16:11.6 16:27.0 Central Catholic 16 9 Daniel Thompson 16:11.6 16:27.0 Central Catholic 17 12 Matt Piercy 16:01.7 16:27.1 Jesuit 18 11 Dante Dalla Gasperina 16:12.4 16:27.8 Central Catholic 19 10 Jean Baptiste Tooley 16:12.7 16:28.1 Central Catholic 20 12 Alex Joseph 16:05.5 16:30.9 Jesuit 21 12 Caleb Diaz 16:35.3 16:31.0 North Medford -- 11 Devin Sellers 16:07.2 16:32.6 Aloha -- 11 Nic McDaniel 16:57.0 16:33.1 McMinnville 22 12 Connor Cushman 16:50.6 16:33.3 West Linn 23 9 Roman Ollar 16:51.2 16:33.9 West Linn 24 9 Leo Lukens 16:52.4 16:35.1 Lakeridge 25 12 Colton Ansberry 16:52.9 16:35.6 Lakeridge 26 12 Tyler Griffin 16:53.4 16:36.1 West Linn 27 11 Michael Godbout 16:11.6 16:37.0 Jesuit 28 10 Matthew Lovos 17:01.0 16:37.1 Tualatin 29 11 Liam Burke 16:12.4 16:37.8 Lincoln -- 11 Al Lacey 16:55.7 16:38.4 Oregon City -- 11 Jared Bell 16:56.0 16:38.7 Clackamas -- 11 Jackson Cole 16:56.2 16:38.9 Grant 30 10 Sam Truax 16:24.2 16:39.6 Central Catholic 31 12 Devyn Baldovino 16:44.2 16:39.9 North Medford -- 11 Nathaniel Roberts 16:32 16:40.6 Sprague 32 12 Judd Parson 17:06.0 16:42.1 Forest Grove 33 12 Auston Burns 16:28.6 16:44.0 Barlow 34 12 Austin Kettleson 16:31.0 16:46.4 Barlow 35 12 Alex Johnston 16:50.9 16:46.6 Sheldon 36 10 Seth Berdahl 17:11.0 16:47.1 Forest Grove -- 12 Jacob Atkinson 16:41 16:49.6 Sprague 37 12 Kevin Mertz 17:07.0 16:49.7 Lakeridge 38 11 Henry Fowler 16:54.6 16:50.3 Sheldon -- 12 Keenan Follett 16:35.5 16:50.9 Reynolds 39 12 Joey Rincon 16:55.2 16:50.9 North Medford -- 11 Mason Rouches 17:15.0 16:51.1 Glencoe 40 9 Grayson Ollar 17:09.2 16:51.9 West Linn 41 9 Noah Belcik 17:13.1 16:55.8 Lakeridge 42 11 Aaran Fagan 17:00.3 16:56.0 North Medford -- 12 Bailey Peterson 17:21.0 16:57.1 Newberg 43 11 Tyler Snyder 17:23.0 16:59.1 Tualatin 44 12 Emanuel Kraynick 16:52 17:00.6 West Salem 45 10 Jake Beach DNF 17:00.6 West Salem -- 10 Ronnie Graham 17:25.0 17:01.1 McMinnville 46 12 Connor Pitt 17:27.0 17:03.1 Forest Grove 47 12 Ben Campbell 16:39.3 17:04.7 Lincoln 48 9 Jackson Mestler 17:10.8 17:06.5 Sheldon 49 9 Colin Squires 17:23.8 17:06.5 West Linn -- 12 Brandon Raleigh 16:51.6 17:07.0 Reynolds 50 10 Benjamin Love 17:32.0 17:08.1 Tualatin 51 11 Ben Harter 17:13.4 17:09.1 Sheldon 52 11 Michael Garcia 17:36.0 17:12.1 Forest Grove 53 11 Ethan Takla 16:48.0 17:13.4 Lincoln 54 10 Spencer Bybee 17:08 17:16.6 West Salem 55 12 Scott Allred 17:45.0 17:21.1 Tualatin 56 11 David Bellamy 17:27.8 17:23.5 Sheldon 57 10 Tommy Franklin 17:10.1 17:25.5 Barlow 58 12 Sean Barr 17:17 17:25.6 West Salem -- 11 Sam Ruck 17:19 17:27.6 South Salem 59 12 Brayan Cruz 17:53.0 17:29.1 Forest Grove 60 11 Duncan MacEachern 17:05.0 17:30.4 Lincoln 61 10 Connor Covey 17:35.0 17:30.7 North Medford 62 11 Teddy Kortenhof 17:08.5 17:33.9 Lincoln 63 12 Sam Bybee 17:27 17:35.6 West Salem 64 9 Malachi Seib 18:00.0 17:36.1 Tualatin 65 11 Riley Hankins 17:28 17:36.6 West Salem 66 9 Justin Miller 17:55.6 17:38.3 Lakeridge 67 9 Hunter Mosman 17:30 17:38.6 West Salem 68 10 Brandon Williams 17:25.1 17:40.5 Barlow 69 11 Michael Sullivan 17:58.5 17:41.2 West Linn 70 12 Tony Goemaere 17:34 17:42.6 McNary 71 11 Aaron Orr 18:09.0 17:45.1 Forest Grove 72 10 Daylon Martin 17:30.1 17:45.5 Barlow 73 11 Evan Rummerfield 17:38 17:46.6 McNary 74 12 Nathan Belcik 18:04.3 17:47.0 Lakeridge 75 10 Daniel Ennis 18:24.0 18:00.1 Tualatin -- 12 Esau Lopez 17:52 18:00.6 North Salem 76 11 John Goetze 18:21.7 18:04.4 West Linn 77 10 William Calder 18:29.0 18:05.1 Tualatin 78 12 Ian Dehner 18:37.0 18:13.1 Forest Grove 79 11 Manny Garcia 18:00.2 18:15.6 Barlow 80 11 Adrian Fernandez 18:11 18:19.6 McNary 81 11 Dalton Lindsey 18:21 18:29.6 McNary 82 11 Taylor Russell 18:56 19:04.6 McNary 83 9 Angel Goemaere 19:06 19:14.6 McNary 84 12 Amadi Amaitsa 19:50 19:58.6 McNary 1) Jesuit 6 - 8 - 9 - 14 - 17 - (20) - (27) = 54 2) Central Catholic 1 - 10 - 15 - 16 - 18 - (19) - (30) = 60 3) North Medford 11 - 12 - 21 - 31 - 39 - (42) - (61) = 114 4) Sheldon 2 - 5 - 35 - 38 - 49 - (51) - (56) = 129 5) Lakeridge 3 - 24 - 25 - 37 - 41 - (66) - (74) = 130 6) Lincoln 7 - 13 - 29 - 47 - 53 - (60) - (62) = 149 7) West Linn 22 - 23 - 26 - 40 - 48 - (69) - (76) = 159 8) Barlow 4 - 33 - 34 - 57 - 68 - (72) - (79) = 196 9) Forest Grove 32 - 36 - 46 - 52 - 59 - (71) - (78) = 225 10) Tualatin 28 - 43 - 50 - 55 - 64 - (75) - (77) = 240 11) West Salem 44 - 45 - 54 - 58 - 63 - (65) - (67) = 264 12) McNary 70 - 73 - 80 - 81 - 82 - (83) - (84) = 386 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
