Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2011 Boys 6A Projections

#				League	State		
1	Kyle Thompson		15:26	15:40	CCat	10
2	Jon Obeso		16:03	15:58	Crtr	12
--	Andre Walker		15:45.8	16:02.8	Gran	12
3	Brian Eimstad		16:08	16:03	SEug	12
4	David Leavy		15:33.3	16:05.3	JHS	12
5	Nathan Normo		15:48.4	16:05.4	LkOs	12
6	Neil Seibert		16:13	16:08	Crtr	12
7	Jacob Campbell		15:55	16:09	SBHS	12
8	Jack Wilson		16:15	16:10	SEug	12
--	Justin Rocereto		15:41.8	16:13.8	SRig	12
9	Jackson Haselnus	16:00	16:14	SBHS	11
--	Hussein Mohamed		15:43.7	16:15.7	Beav	12
--	Ryan Jones		15:46.8	16:18.8	SRig	12
10	Sam Truax		16:05	16:19	CCat	9
11	Joe Holvey		16:24	16:19	SEug	12
12	Tyler Shipley		15:58.0	16:19	FG	12
--	Ray Schireman		16:25	16:20	NMed	10
--	Dylan Hanson		16:07	16:21	Gres	12
--	Kenny Freeman		16:26	16:21	Rose	10
--	Blake Spencer		16:26	16:21	NMed	11
13	Julian Heninger		16:05.2	16:22.2	Lkrg	11
--	Dan Oekerman		15:50.3	16:22.3	Beav	11
14	Hunter McGuirk		15:50.7	16:22.7	JHS	11
--	Taylor Hybl		16:09	16:23	Cntl	11
--	Camden Stemple		16:28	16:23	SMed	11
15	G Lizier-Zmudzinski	16:02.0	16:23	FG	10
16	Todd Macdonald		16:06.4	16:23.4	LkOs	11
17	Tanner Smith		15:51.6	16:23.6	Linc	11
18	Mubark Mebrat		16:07.8	16:24.8	Lkrg	12
19	Jordan Landstrom	16:11	16:25	CCat	11
20	Daniel Stoiber		16:31	16:26	Crtr	11
21	Jared Bell		16:09.1	16:26.1	LkOs	10
22	Zach Selko		16:32	16:27	SEug	12
--	Nathan Meeker		16:13.0	16:30.0	OC	12
23	Sam Remington		16:00.9	16:32.9	JHS	10
24	Reilly Bloomer		16:38	16:33	SEug	9
25	Nathan Love		16:12.0	16:33	Tual	12
--	Connor Cushman		16:16.5	16:33.5	WLin	11
26	Brian McDavitt		16:03.6	16:35.6	JHS	11
27	Joshua Sealand		16:07.9	16:39.9	JHS	11
28	Sam Lomax		16:26	16:40	CCat	9
29	Andrew Green		16:27	16:41	CCat	11
--	Ciaran Smythe		16:24.9	16:41.9	Clac	12
30	Auston Burns		16:30	16:44	SBHS	11
31	Evan Martin		16:12.4	16:44.4	Linc	12
32	Liam Chapin-Jones	16:50	16:45	SEug	11
--	Ian Stevens		16:35	16:49	REY	10
--	Nic McDaniel		16:28.0	16:49	McMi	10
33	Alex Joseph		16:17.0	16:49.0	JHS	11
34	John Martinez		16:55	16:50	Crtr	11
35	Jason Braxton		16:55	16:50	Crtr	10
36	Chris Musser		16:30	16:50	NSHS	12
--	Keenan Follett		16:38	16:52	REY	11
37	Ben Campbell		16:20.5	16:52.5	Linc	11
38	Jean Baptiste Tooley	16:39	16:53	CCat	9
39	Dante Dalla Gasperina	16:41	16:55	CCat	10
40	Piers Rasmussen		17:00	16:55	Crtr	12
--	Alex Stevens		16:35	16:55	Red	9
--	Bo McCullough		16:34.0	16:55	Hils	12
41	Cameron Martin		17:03	16:58	SEug	11
42	Brently Strum		17:06	17:01	Crtr	11
43	David Clark		16:41	17:01	WSlm	12
44	Alex Seymour		16:49	17:03	SBHS	12
45	Michael Godbout		16:31.5	17:03.5	JHS	10
46	Austin Kettleson	16:50	17:04	SBHS	11
--	Jacob Atkinson		16:46	17:06	Sprg	11
47	Colton Ansberry		16:49.7	17:06.7	Lkrg	11
--	Tim Rice		16:46.0	17:07	Cntr	12
--	Bailey Peterson		16:46.0	17:07	Newb	11
48	Jorge Rico		16:48	17:08	NSHS	12
49	Alec Koh		16:51.2	17:08.2	Lkrg	12
--	Nick Ellis		16:49	17:09	SSlm	12
50	James McCahon		16:49.0	17:10	FG	12
51	Ramon Villa		16:53	17:13	NSHS	12
52	Nico Banks		16:41.1	17:13.1	Linc	11
53	Scott Allred		16:53.0	17:14	Tual	11
54	Braden Lambert		16:42.5	17:14.5	Linc	12
--	Oliver Gunther		16:57	17:17	Red	11
55	Michael Garcia		17:00.0	17:21	FG	10
56	Phillip Kearns		17:05.4	17:22.4	LkOs	11
57	Emanuel Kraynick	17:05	17:25	WSlm	11
58	Kevin Mertz		17:08.4	17:25.4	Lkrg	11
59	Nick Reeve		16:55.0	17:27.0	Linc	12
60	Tyler Snyder		17:07.0	17:28	Tual	10
61	C.J. Johnson		17:08.0	17:29	FG	12
62	Teddy Kortenhof		16:58.3	17:30.3	Linc	10
63	Matthew Thomas		17:12	17:32	WSlm	12
64	Ben Whitenack		17:18	17:38	WSlm	12
65	Matthew Lovos		17:19.0	17:40	Tual	9
66	Matt Agritelley		17:25.7	17:42.7	LkOs	10
67	Seth Berdahl		17:22.0	17:43	FG	9
68	Sean Barr		17:24	17:44	WSlm	11
69	Brendan Abel		17:24	17:44	WSlm	11
70	Jake Beach		17:24	17:44	WSlm	9
71	Christian Veillet	17:27.3	17:44.3	Lkrg	12
72	Connor Wilson		17:27.8	17:44.8	LkOs	10
73	Dylan Moore		17:24.0	17:45	Tual	12
74	Connor Pitt		17:25.0	17:46	FG	11
75	Nathan Belcik		17:31.2	17:48.2	Lkrg	11
76	Zach Standish		17:41	17:55	SBHS	10
77	Brendan Holser		17:46.4	18:03.4	LkOs	10
78	Manny Garcia		18:03	18:17	SBHS	10
79	Julio Olmos		17:59	18:19	NSHS	9
80	Carlos Flores		18:06	18:26	NSHS	11
81	Bryce Haskin		18:08.0	18:29	Tual	9
82	Adam Mitchell		18:22.0	18:43	Tual	10
83	Esau Lopez		18:33	18:53	NSHS	11
84	Lee Lindley		18:39	18:59	NSHS	12

1) S. Eugene 	3 - 8 - 11 - 22 - 24 - (32) - (41) = 68
2) C. Catholic 	1 - 12 - 19 - 28 - 29 - (38) - (39) = 89
3) Jesuit 	4 - 14 - 23 - 26 - 27 - (33) - (45) = 94
4) Crater 	2 - 6 - 20 - 34 - 35 - (40) - (43) = 97
5) Barlow 	7 - 9 - 30 - 44 - 46 - (76) - (78) = 136
6) Lake Oswego 	5 - 16 - 21 - 56 - 66 - (72) - (77) = 164
7) Lakeridge 	13 - 18 - 47 - 49 - 58 - (71) - (75) = 185
8) Lincoln 	17 - 31 - 37 - 52 - 54 - (59) - (62) = 191
9) Forest Grove	10 - 15 - 50 - 55 - 61 - (67) - (74) = 191
10) Tualatin	25 - 53 - 60 - 65 - 73 - (81) - (82) = 276
11) W. Salem	42 - 57 - 63 - 64 - 68 - (69) - (70) = 294
12) N. Salem	36 - 48 - 51 - 79 - 80 - (83) - (84) = 294



The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top
runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied
as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at
sub-maximal efforts.  I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top
few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be
faster, some will be slower, so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to
take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in
the thick of the pack.  The focus is on average team placement moreso than
individuals.  A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets
or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of
bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key
to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the
various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.)
were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective
courses.  This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites
which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up
at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.