Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2011 Boys 6A Projections # League State 1 Kyle Thompson 15:26 15:40 CCat 10 2 Jon Obeso 16:03 15:58 Crtr 12 -- Andre Walker 15:45.8 16:02.8 Gran 12 3 Brian Eimstad 16:08 16:03 SEug 12 4 David Leavy 15:33.3 16:05.3 JHS 12 5 Nathan Normo 15:48.4 16:05.4 LkOs 12 6 Neil Seibert 16:13 16:08 Crtr 12 7 Jacob Campbell 15:55 16:09 SBHS 12 8 Jack Wilson 16:15 16:10 SEug 12 -- Justin Rocereto 15:41.8 16:13.8 SRig 12 9 Jackson Haselnus 16:00 16:14 SBHS 11 -- Hussein Mohamed 15:43.7 16:15.7 Beav 12 -- Ryan Jones 15:46.8 16:18.8 SRig 12 10 Sam Truax 16:05 16:19 CCat 9 11 Joe Holvey 16:24 16:19 SEug 12 12 Tyler Shipley 15:58.0 16:19 FG 12 -- Ray Schireman 16:25 16:20 NMed 10 -- Dylan Hanson 16:07 16:21 Gres 12 -- Kenny Freeman 16:26 16:21 Rose 10 -- Blake Spencer 16:26 16:21 NMed 11 13 Julian Heninger 16:05.2 16:22.2 Lkrg 11 -- Dan Oekerman 15:50.3 16:22.3 Beav 11 14 Hunter McGuirk 15:50.7 16:22.7 JHS 11 -- Taylor Hybl 16:09 16:23 Cntl 11 -- Camden Stemple 16:28 16:23 SMed 11 15 G Lizier-Zmudzinski 16:02.0 16:23 FG 10 16 Todd Macdonald 16:06.4 16:23.4 LkOs 11 17 Tanner Smith 15:51.6 16:23.6 Linc 11 18 Mubark Mebrat 16:07.8 16:24.8 Lkrg 12 19 Jordan Landstrom 16:11 16:25 CCat 11 20 Daniel Stoiber 16:31 16:26 Crtr 11 21 Jared Bell 16:09.1 16:26.1 LkOs 10 22 Zach Selko 16:32 16:27 SEug 12 -- Nathan Meeker 16:13.0 16:30.0 OC 12 23 Sam Remington 16:00.9 16:32.9 JHS 10 24 Reilly Bloomer 16:38 16:33 SEug 9 25 Nathan Love 16:12.0 16:33 Tual 12 -- Connor Cushman 16:16.5 16:33.5 WLin 11 26 Brian McDavitt 16:03.6 16:35.6 JHS 11 27 Joshua Sealand 16:07.9 16:39.9 JHS 11 28 Sam Lomax 16:26 16:40 CCat 9 29 Andrew Green 16:27 16:41 CCat 11 -- Ciaran Smythe 16:24.9 16:41.9 Clac 12 30 Auston Burns 16:30 16:44 SBHS 11 31 Evan Martin 16:12.4 16:44.4 Linc 12 32 Liam Chapin-Jones 16:50 16:45 SEug 11 -- Ian Stevens 16:35 16:49 REY 10 -- Nic McDaniel 16:28.0 16:49 McMi 10 33 Alex Joseph 16:17.0 16:49.0 JHS 11 34 John Martinez 16:55 16:50 Crtr 11 35 Jason Braxton 16:55 16:50 Crtr 10 36 Chris Musser 16:30 16:50 NSHS 12 -- Keenan Follett 16:38 16:52 REY 11 37 Ben Campbell 16:20.5 16:52.5 Linc 11 38 Jean Baptiste Tooley 16:39 16:53 CCat 9 39 Dante Dalla Gasperina 16:41 16:55 CCat 10 40 Piers Rasmussen 17:00 16:55 Crtr 12 -- Alex Stevens 16:35 16:55 Red 9 -- Bo McCullough 16:34.0 16:55 Hils 12 41 Cameron Martin 17:03 16:58 SEug 11 42 Brently Strum 17:06 17:01 Crtr 11 43 David Clark 16:41 17:01 WSlm 12 44 Alex Seymour 16:49 17:03 SBHS 12 45 Michael Godbout 16:31.5 17:03.5 JHS 10 46 Austin Kettleson 16:50 17:04 SBHS 11 -- Jacob Atkinson 16:46 17:06 Sprg 11 47 Colton Ansberry 16:49.7 17:06.7 Lkrg 11 -- Tim Rice 16:46.0 17:07 Cntr 12 -- Bailey Peterson 16:46.0 17:07 Newb 11 48 Jorge Rico 16:48 17:08 NSHS 12 49 Alec Koh 16:51.2 17:08.2 Lkrg 12 -- Nick Ellis 16:49 17:09 SSlm 12 50 James McCahon 16:49.0 17:10 FG 12 51 Ramon Villa 16:53 17:13 NSHS 12 52 Nico Banks 16:41.1 17:13.1 Linc 11 53 Scott Allred 16:53.0 17:14 Tual 11 54 Braden Lambert 16:42.5 17:14.5 Linc 12 -- Oliver Gunther 16:57 17:17 Red 11 55 Michael Garcia 17:00.0 17:21 FG 10 56 Phillip Kearns 17:05.4 17:22.4 LkOs 11 57 Emanuel Kraynick 17:05 17:25 WSlm 11 58 Kevin Mertz 17:08.4 17:25.4 Lkrg 11 59 Nick Reeve 16:55.0 17:27.0 Linc 12 60 Tyler Snyder 17:07.0 17:28 Tual 10 61 C.J. Johnson 17:08.0 17:29 FG 12 62 Teddy Kortenhof 16:58.3 17:30.3 Linc 10 63 Matthew Thomas 17:12 17:32 WSlm 12 64 Ben Whitenack 17:18 17:38 WSlm 12 65 Matthew Lovos 17:19.0 17:40 Tual 9 66 Matt Agritelley 17:25.7 17:42.7 LkOs 10 67 Seth Berdahl 17:22.0 17:43 FG 9 68 Sean Barr 17:24 17:44 WSlm 11 69 Brendan Abel 17:24 17:44 WSlm 11 70 Jake Beach 17:24 17:44 WSlm 9 71 Christian Veillet 17:27.3 17:44.3 Lkrg 12 72 Connor Wilson 17:27.8 17:44.8 LkOs 10 73 Dylan Moore 17:24.0 17:45 Tual 12 74 Connor Pitt 17:25.0 17:46 FG 11 75 Nathan Belcik 17:31.2 17:48.2 Lkrg 11 76 Zach Standish 17:41 17:55 SBHS 10 77 Brendan Holser 17:46.4 18:03.4 LkOs 10 78 Manny Garcia 18:03 18:17 SBHS 10 79 Julio Olmos 17:59 18:19 NSHS 9 80 Carlos Flores 18:06 18:26 NSHS 11 81 Bryce Haskin 18:08.0 18:29 Tual 9 82 Adam Mitchell 18:22.0 18:43 Tual 10 83 Esau Lopez 18:33 18:53 NSHS 11 84 Lee Lindley 18:39 18:59 NSHS 12 1) S. Eugene 3 - 8 - 11 - 22 - 24 - (32) - (41) = 68 2) C. Catholic 1 - 12 - 19 - 28 - 29 - (38) - (39) = 89 3) Jesuit 4 - 14 - 23 - 26 - 27 - (33) - (45) = 94 4) Crater 2 - 6 - 20 - 34 - 35 - (40) - (43) = 97 5) Barlow 7 - 9 - 30 - 44 - 46 - (76) - (78) = 136 6) Lake Oswego 5 - 16 - 21 - 56 - 66 - (72) - (77) = 164 7) Lakeridge 13 - 18 - 47 - 49 - 58 - (71) - (75) = 185 8) Lincoln 17 - 31 - 37 - 52 - 54 - (59) - (62) = 191 9) Forest Grove 10 - 15 - 50 - 55 - 61 - (67) - (74) = 191 10) Tualatin 25 - 53 - 60 - 65 - 73 - (81) - (82) = 276 11) W. Salem 42 - 57 - 63 - 64 - 68 - (69) - (70) = 294 12) N. Salem 36 - 48 - 51 - 79 - 80 - (83) - (84) = 294 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.