Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2007 Girls 6A Projections Score League State Adj 1 Jesuit Adrienne McGuirk 17:36.1 18:00 17:55 2 Jesuit Noelle VanRysselberghe 18:00.3 18:24 18:05 -- Centennial Michelle Dettmann 18:28.7 18:30 -- Redmond Kris Thomasberg 18:47.6 18:54 -- Sunset Audrey Botti 18:38.7 18:55 3 Lincoln Betsy Kolberg 19:06.8 19:02 18:55 -- West Salem Maren Westby 18:49.5 18:56 -- Hood River Erin Jones 18:55.2 18:56 4 Tualatin Emily Wheeler 19:26.3 19:21 18:57 5 Gresham Khalia Tidwell 18:57.9 18:59 6 Jesuit Maria Salazar 18:34.9 18:59 7 St. Mary's Alexandra Jones 19:01 -- Aloha Shelby Brennan 18:44.9 19:02 8 Jesuit Payton Schutte 18:40.2 19:04 9 Jesuit Shannon Mahoney 18:45.5 19:10 10 St. Mary's Alexa Kearns 19:11.5 19:12 11 Jesuit Claire Hagler 18:51.1 19:15 -- McKay Janelle Everetts 19:09.9 19:16 12 Lake Oswego Tate Murray 19:13 19:19 -- Forest Grove Laura Matzke 19:26.5 19:21 13 Tigard Cassie Carroll 19:29.6 19:24 14 South Eugene Sasha Teninty 19:14.9 19:25 15 St. Mary's Lucy Whipps 19:27.6 19:28 -- Roseburg Bryanna Oelrich 19:20.4 19:31 16 South Medford Piper Delaney 19:22.7 19:33 -- McKay Megan Everetts 19:26.9 19:33 17 South Eugene Whitney Pitman 19:24.6 19:35 18 Jesuit Elizabeth Murphy 19:12.2 19:36 19 Lake Oswego Latane Cox 19:31 19:37 20 Westview Bianca Martin 19:04.8 19:38 21 South Medford Tayler Harrington 19:28.3 19:39 -- Franklin Joy Shufeldt 20:12.4 20:07 19:40 22 St. Mary's Taylor Ffitch 19:40.8 19:42 23 West Linn Elliot Prince 19:36 19:42 24 Tigard Sarah Walch 19:50.2 19:45 -- Milwaukie Erin McLaughlin 19:41 19:47 25 Lincoln Iris Lerch 19:52.1 19:47 26 South Salem Rachel Rasberry 20:28.5 20:35 19:50 27 West Linn Natalie Pittenger 19:46 19:52 -- Beaverton Jamie Waymire 19:19.5 19:52 -- Grants Pass Lorine Cruz 19:42.5 19:53 -- Beaverton Haley Gregoire 19:20.4 19:53 28 Tualatin Keeley Tillotson 20:13.0 20:08 19:53 -- Oregon City Hannah Groshong 19:47 19:53 29 South Eugene Nora Wilson 19:46.1 19:57 30 South Salem Courtney Hochstetler 19:50.5 19:57 31 Tigard Ali Davis 20:03.6 19:58 32 Tualatin Melissa Arndorfer 21:43.9 21:39 20:00 33 Tualatin Kelsey Stilson -- -- 20:00 34 Lake Oswego Lauren Ohlson 19:57 20:03 35 South Medford Kelsey Bradshaw 19:52.8 20:03 -- Putnam Michaela Freeby 19:59 20:05 36 Sprague Erica Nelson 20:00.1 20:06 -- Canby McKayla Fricker 20:11.3 20:06 -- Sheldon Becca Eddy 19:55.8 20:07 -- Clackamas Kate Jette 20:02 20:08 -- Grants Pass Laurel Parks 19:59.2 20:10 -- Forest Grove Sharon Rooker 20:14.5 20:10 37 Tualatin Devon Frazier 20:31.9 20:27 20:12 38 St. Mary's Jen Olson 20:13.3 20:14 39 Lincoln Bara Kloubova 20:21.2 20:16 -- Canby Maggie Ruwitch 20:24.0 20:19 40 Gresham Melissa Allen 20:20.1 20:21 41 Grant Kristen Delwiche 20:25.9 20:21 -- Centennial Andrea Dettmann 20:20.7 20:22 42 Gresham Kay Anna Cecchi 20:24.5 20:25 -- C. Catholic Bethany Loumena 20:25.5 20:26 43 St. Mary's Erin Bergmann 20:26.8 20:28 44 Sprague Emily Zegar 20:23.2 20:29 45 Westview Kirsten Myers 19:57.4 20:30 46 South Eugene Brookie Wilson 20:20.3 20:31 47 St. Mary's Tara Higgins 20:36.7 20:38 48 Westview Mackenzie Magee 20:06.4 20:39 49 South Salem Chelsea Sinks 20:35.0 20:41 -- Wilson Haley Lau 20:47.3 20:42 -- Franklin Katie Skinner 20:48.3 20:43 50 South Eugene Lauren Graebner 20:34.4 20:45 51 West Linn Chelsea Ollar 20:39 20:45 52 Gresham Natasha Raines 20:47.6 20:49 53 West Linn Rachel Seigneur 20:45 20:51 54 Westview Kristen Francis 20:19.5 20:52 55 Tigard Katie Humphrey 20:58.1 20:53 -- Franklin Madison Trowbridge 20:58.1 20:53 56 Sprague Hannah Cohen 20:50.4 20:56 57 Westview Sarah Overson 20:23.6 20:56 58 Grant Ragan Allen 21:02.5 20:57 59 Lincoln Jasmin Volk 21:03.4 20:58 60 Gresham Jaime Demars 20:58.0 20:59 61 South Salem Shealyn Freidrich 20:54.8 21:01 62 South Salem Evelyn Moz 20:56.8 21:03 63 West Linn Kathryn Flyte 21:01 21:07 64 South Salem Kylie Moore 21:01.9 21:09 65 South Eugene Rachel Parker 21:03.4 21:14 66 Gresham Brandy Quinn 21:12.5 21:14 67 South Eugene Brittany McAllister 21:05.6 21:16 68 Grant Annika Sullivan 21:21.8 21:16 69 West Linn Erin Morrow 21:11 21:17 70 South Medford Riley Morgan 21:06.7 21:17 71 Grant Jenna Delwiche 21:23.6 21:18 72 Tualatin Julie Arndorfer 21:39.3 21:34 21:19 73 Westview Lauren Larsen 20:48.8 21:22 74 Tualatin Lauren Morris 21:41.9 21:37 21:22 75 Grant Charlotte Bartruff 21:26.6 21:22 76 Lake Oswego Emily Fuller 21:18 21:24 77 Sprague Rachael Nelson 21:19.0 21:25 78 Sprague Becca Zanon 21:30.1 21:36 79 Grant Julianne Pike 21:42.7 21:38 80 Tigard Amanda Craig 21:45.9 21:41 81 West Linn Diana Crane 21:36 21:42 82 Sprague Katelynn Willits 21:37.1 21:43 83 Grant Hannah Rapp 21:48.3 21:43 84 Lake Oswego Erin Yaylali 21:39 21:45 85 Gresham Sarah Hurwitz 21:43.9 21:45 86 Sprague Delane Petersen 21:40.2 21:46 87 Westview Nicole Chombeau 21:13.3 21:47 88 Lincoln Kindra Aschenbrenner 21:53.5 21:49 89 Lincoln Gretchen Kolberg 21:55.7 21:51 90 Tigard Andrea Kirch 22:00.0 21:55 91 South Medford Paige Granger 21:45.6 21:56 92 South Salem Katie Taylor 21:55.4 22:01 93 Lincoln Martha Boylston 22:06.0 22:01 94 Lake Oswego Ali Steinbacher 21:57 22:03 95 Tigard Taylor Browning 22:22.7 22:18 96 Lake Oswego Kathleen Preston 22:12 22:18 97 South Medford Erica Chelgren 22:25.3 22:36 98 South Medford Julia Chelgren 22:53.8 23:04 1) Jesuit 1-2-6-8-9 (11-18) = 26 2) St. Mary's 7-10-15-22-38 (43-47) = 92 3) Tualatin 4-28-32-33-37 (72-74) = 134 4) South Eugene 14-17-29-46-50 (65-67) = 156 5) Gresham 5-40-42-52-60 (66-85) = 199 6) Tigard 13-24-31-55-80 (90-95) = 203 7) Lincoln 3-25-39-59-88 (89-93) = 214 8) West Linn 23-27-51-53-63 (69-81) = 217 9) Westview 20-45-48-54-57 (73-87) = 224 10) Lake Oswego 12-19-34-76-84 (94-96) = 225 11) South Salem 26-30-49-61-62 (64-92) = 228 12) South Medford 16-21-35-70-91 (97-98) = 233 13) Sprague 36-44-56-77-78 (82-86) = 291 14) Grant 41-58-68-71-75 (79-83) = 313 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. Unfortunately, for 2007, this was made quite difficult by the over- crowding at many of the invites which resulted in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for little in the way of consistent comparisons. For 2007, an additional adjustment was applied for Tualatin. The past two years, they have raced at a much higher level at State than what their District results hinted at. Grant and South Medford's adjustment is based largely on those of other teams, as they were absent from too many of the key invites for consistent comparisons.