Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2007 Girls 6A Projections

Score						League		State	Adj
1	Jesuit		Adrienne McGuirk	17:36.1		18:00	17:55
2	Jesuit		Noelle VanRysselberghe	18:00.3		18:24	18:05
--	Centennial	Michelle Dettmann	18:28.7		18:30
--	Redmond		Kris Thomasberg		18:47.6		18:54
--	Sunset		Audrey Botti		18:38.7		18:55
3	Lincoln		Betsy Kolberg		19:06.8		19:02	18:55
--	West Salem	Maren Westby		18:49.5		18:56
--	Hood River	Erin Jones		18:55.2		18:56
4	Tualatin	Emily Wheeler		19:26.3		19:21	18:57
5	Gresham		Khalia Tidwell		18:57.9		18:59
6	Jesuit		Maria Salazar		18:34.9		18:59
7	St. Mary's	Alexandra Jones				19:01
--	Aloha		Shelby Brennan		18:44.9		19:02
8	Jesuit		Payton Schutte		18:40.2		19:04
9	Jesuit		Shannon Mahoney		18:45.5		19:10
10	St. Mary's	Alexa Kearns		19:11.5		19:12
11	Jesuit		Claire Hagler		18:51.1		19:15
--	McKay		Janelle Everetts	19:09.9		19:16
12	Lake Oswego	Tate Murray		19:13		19:19
--	Forest Grove	Laura Matzke		19:26.5		19:21
13	Tigard		Cassie Carroll		19:29.6		19:24
14	South Eugene	Sasha Teninty		19:14.9		19:25
15	St. Mary's	Lucy Whipps		19:27.6		19:28
--	Roseburg	Bryanna Oelrich		19:20.4		19:31
16	South Medford	Piper Delaney		19:22.7		19:33
--	McKay		Megan Everetts		19:26.9		19:33
17	South Eugene	Whitney Pitman		19:24.6		19:35
18	Jesuit		Elizabeth Murphy	19:12.2		19:36
19	Lake Oswego	Latane Cox		19:31		19:37
20	Westview	Bianca Martin		19:04.8		19:38
21	South Medford	Tayler Harrington	19:28.3		19:39
--	Franklin	Joy Shufeldt		20:12.4		20:07	19:40
22	St. Mary's	Taylor Ffitch		19:40.8		19:42
23	West Linn	Elliot Prince		19:36		19:42
24	Tigard		Sarah Walch		19:50.2		19:45
--	Milwaukie	Erin McLaughlin		19:41		19:47
25	Lincoln		Iris Lerch		19:52.1		19:47
26	South Salem	Rachel Rasberry		20:28.5		20:35	19:50
27	West Linn	Natalie Pittenger	19:46		19:52
--	Beaverton	Jamie Waymire		19:19.5		19:52
--	Grants Pass	Lorine Cruz		19:42.5		19:53
--	Beaverton	Haley Gregoire		19:20.4		19:53
28	Tualatin	Keeley Tillotson	20:13.0		20:08	19:53
--	Oregon City	Hannah Groshong		19:47		19:53
29	South Eugene	Nora Wilson		19:46.1		19:57
30	South Salem	Courtney Hochstetler	19:50.5		19:57
31	Tigard		Ali Davis		20:03.6		19:58
32	Tualatin	Melissa Arndorfer	21:43.9		21:39	20:00
33	Tualatin	Kelsey Stilson		--		--	20:00
34	Lake Oswego	Lauren Ohlson		19:57		20:03
35	South Medford	Kelsey Bradshaw		19:52.8		20:03
--	Putnam		Michaela Freeby		19:59		20:05
36	Sprague		Erica Nelson		20:00.1		20:06
--	Canby		McKayla Fricker		20:11.3		20:06
--	Sheldon		Becca Eddy		19:55.8		20:07
--	Clackamas	Kate Jette		20:02		20:08
--	Grants Pass	Laurel Parks		19:59.2		20:10
--	Forest Grove	Sharon Rooker		20:14.5		20:10
37	Tualatin	Devon Frazier		20:31.9		20:27	20:12
38	St. Mary's	Jen Olson		20:13.3		20:14
39	Lincoln		Bara Kloubova		20:21.2		20:16
--	Canby		Maggie Ruwitch		20:24.0		20:19
40	Gresham		Melissa Allen		20:20.1		20:21
41	Grant		Kristen Delwiche	20:25.9		20:21
--	Centennial	Andrea Dettmann		20:20.7		20:22
42	Gresham		Kay Anna Cecchi		20:24.5		20:25
--	C. Catholic	Bethany Loumena		20:25.5		20:26
43	St. Mary's	Erin Bergmann		20:26.8		20:28
44	Sprague		Emily Zegar		20:23.2		20:29
45	Westview	Kirsten Myers		19:57.4		20:30
46	South Eugene	Brookie Wilson		20:20.3		20:31
47	St. Mary's	Tara Higgins		20:36.7		20:38
48	Westview	Mackenzie Magee		20:06.4		20:39
49	South Salem	Chelsea Sinks		20:35.0		20:41
--	Wilson		Haley Lau		20:47.3		20:42
--	Franklin	Katie Skinner		20:48.3		20:43
50	South Eugene	Lauren Graebner		20:34.4		20:45
51	West Linn	Chelsea Ollar		20:39		20:45
52	Gresham		Natasha Raines		20:47.6		20:49
53	West Linn	Rachel Seigneur		20:45		20:51
54	Westview	Kristen Francis		20:19.5		20:52
55	Tigard		Katie Humphrey		20:58.1		20:53
--	Franklin	Madison Trowbridge	20:58.1		20:53
56	Sprague		Hannah Cohen		20:50.4		20:56
57	Westview	Sarah Overson		20:23.6		20:56
58	Grant		Ragan Allen		21:02.5		20:57
59	Lincoln		Jasmin Volk		21:03.4		20:58
60	Gresham		Jaime Demars		20:58.0		20:59
61	South Salem	Shealyn Freidrich	20:54.8		21:01
62	South Salem	Evelyn Moz		20:56.8		21:03
63	West Linn	Kathryn Flyte		21:01		21:07
64	South Salem	Kylie Moore		21:01.9		21:09
65	South Eugene	Rachel Parker		21:03.4		21:14
66	Gresham		Brandy Quinn		21:12.5		21:14
67	South Eugene	Brittany McAllister	21:05.6		21:16
68	Grant		Annika Sullivan		21:21.8		21:16
69	West Linn	Erin Morrow		21:11		21:17
70	South Medford	Riley Morgan		21:06.7		21:17
71	Grant		Jenna Delwiche		21:23.6		21:18
72	Tualatin	Julie Arndorfer		21:39.3		21:34	21:19
73	Westview	Lauren Larsen		20:48.8		21:22
74	Tualatin	Lauren Morris		21:41.9		21:37	21:22
75	Grant		Charlotte Bartruff	21:26.6		21:22
76	Lake Oswego	Emily Fuller		21:18		21:24
77	Sprague		Rachael Nelson		21:19.0		21:25
78	Sprague		Becca Zanon		21:30.1		21:36
79	Grant		Julianne Pike		21:42.7		21:38
80	Tigard		Amanda Craig		21:45.9		21:41
81	West Linn	Diana Crane		21:36		21:42
82	Sprague		Katelynn Willits	21:37.1		21:43
83	Grant		Hannah Rapp		21:48.3		21:43
84	Lake Oswego	Erin Yaylali		21:39		21:45
85	Gresham		Sarah Hurwitz		21:43.9		21:45
86	Sprague		Delane Petersen		21:40.2		21:46
87	Westview	Nicole Chombeau		21:13.3		21:47
88	Lincoln		Kindra Aschenbrenner	21:53.5		21:49
89	Lincoln		Gretchen Kolberg	21:55.7		21:51
90	Tigard		Andrea Kirch		22:00.0		21:55
91	South Medford	Paige Granger		21:45.6		21:56
92	South Salem	Katie Taylor		21:55.4		22:01
93	Lincoln		Martha Boylston		22:06.0		22:01
94	Lake Oswego	Ali Steinbacher		21:57		22:03
95	Tigard		Taylor Browning		22:22.7		22:18
96	Lake Oswego	Kathleen Preston	22:12		22:18
97	South Medford	Erica Chelgren		22:25.3		22:36
98	South Medford	Julia Chelgren		22:53.8		23:04

1) Jesuit		1-2-6-8-9      (11-18) = 26
2) St. Mary's		7-10-15-22-38  (43-47) = 92
3) Tualatin		4-28-32-33-37  (72-74) = 134
4) South Eugene		14-17-29-46-50 (65-67) = 156
5) Gresham		5-40-42-52-60  (66-85) = 199
6) Tigard		13-24-31-55-80 (90-95) = 203
7) Lincoln		3-25-39-59-88  (89-93) = 214
8) West Linn		23-27-51-53-63 (69-81) = 217
9) Westview		20-45-48-54-57 (73-87) = 224
10) Lake Oswego		12-19-34-76-84 (94-96) = 225
11) South Salem		26-30-49-61-62 (64-92) = 228
12) South Medford	16-21-35-70-91 (97-98) = 233
13) Sprague		36-44-56-77-78 (82-86) = 291
14) Grant		41-58-68-71-75 (79-83) = 313


The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should
be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each
league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit
expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts.
I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time
and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower,
so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to take into account every
variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack.
The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals.  A few notable
athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the
above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key
to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the
various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, adidas, New Balance, etc.)
were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective
courses.  Unfortunately, for 2007, this was made quite difficult by the over-
crowding at many of the invites which resulted in teams running fast one meet
and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for
little in the way of consistent comparisons.

For 2007, an additional adjustment was applied for Tualatin.  The past two
years, they have raced at a much higher level at State than what their District
results hinted at.

Grant and South Medford's adjustment is based largely on those of other teams,
as they were absent from too many of the key invites for consistent comparisons.