Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2012 Girls 6A Projections # League State manual 1 10 Sara Tsai 17:31.1 17:18.3 South Eugene 2 11 Paige Rice 17:46.8 18:25.6 17:19 St Mary's Academy 3 12 Erin Clark 17:32.1 17:19.3 South Eugene 4 9 Ella Donaghu 18:38.3 18:05.3 17:20 Grant -- 12 Maggie Schmaedick 17:34.1 17:21.3 Sheldon 5 12 Parkes Kendrick 18:39.0 18:06.0 Grant 6 11 Charlotte Corless 17:53.0 18:21.2 Sunset 7 10 Ellie Kallgren 17:55.4 18:23.6 Jesuit 8 12 Kelly O'Neill 18:56.6 18:23.6 Lakeridge -- 10 Gracie Todd 18:40.8 18:28.0 Sheldon -- 10 Erin Gregoire 18:00.7 18:28.9 Beaverton 9 10 Dylan Hite 18:04.7 18:32.9 Jesuit 10 11 Piper Donaghu 19:06.6 18:33.6 Grant 11 9 Brooke Chuhlantseff 18:22 18:38.0 West Salem 12 12 Ellen Patterson 18:03.1 18:41.9 St Mary's Academy 13 9 Nicole Griffiths 18:18.2 18:46.4 Sunset -- 9 Kennedy Allen 18:13.8 18:52.6 David Douglas -- 9 Whitney Rich 19:32.0 18:57.4 McMinnville 14 9 Lacey Conner 18:20.1 18:58.9 St Mary's Academy 15 12 Sarah Fahmy 18:33.0 19:01.2 Sunset -- 12 Amanda Stowe 18:35.3 19:03.5 Aloha 16 12 Megan Mullaney 18:37.1 19:05.3 Jesuit 17 11 Taylor Moscoe 18:38.3 19:06.5 Jesuit 18 10 Phacelia Cramer 19:21.1 19:08.3 South Eugene -- 11 Sarah Medved 18:40.5 19:08.7 Westview -- 11 Rachel Niesen 18:41.7 19:09.9 Southridge 19 12 Kennedy Martin 18:33.5 19:12.3 Gresham 20 9 Nicole McCollough 18:44.8 19:13.0 Jesuit -- 11 Gracie Tostenson 19:28.2 19:15.4 Crater 21 9 Rennie Kendrick NT 19:16.0 Grant 22 12 Erin Sanders 19:55.0 19:20.1 Newberg 23 12 Carmen Mejia 19:37.0 19:24.2 South Medford -- 9 Paige Nelson 19:44.3 19:31.5 Thurston 24 12 Lindsay Sheaffer 19:07.6 19:35.8 Jesuit 25 10 Lela Stemple 19:49.2 19:36.4 South Medford 26 9 Kate Patterson 19:02.0 19:40.8 St Mary's Academy 27 10 Tori Hensley 19:15.7 19:43.9 Sunset 28 9 Amanda Calderwood 19:17.9 19:46.1 Sunset -- 11 Lauren Lykins 20:21.0 19:46.4 Hillsboro 29 9 Katie Leavy 19:19.1 19:47.3 Jesuit 30 9 Sharon Zhang 19:19.2 19:47.4 Sunset 31 12 Haley McDonald 19:09.1 19:47.9 Gresham 32 11 Natalie Mosman 20:08.8 19:56.0 South Eugene 33 12 Genevieve Brandt 20:10.3 19:57.5 South Eugene -- 12 Shea Vallaire 20:32.6 19:59.6 Lake Oswego -- 10 Elizabeth Dean 20:36.0 20:01.4 Tigard 34 12 Maddy Kaczmarowski 20:35.3 20:02.3 Grant -- 10 Zoe Clegg 20:36.3 20:03.3 Clackamas 35 12 Karen Qu 19:35.4 20:03.6 Sunset 36 10 Lucy O'Sullivan 19:26.9 20:05.7 St Mary's Academy 37 10 Molly McCullough 19:27.3 20:06.1 St Mary's Academy 38 12 Elena Torry-Schrag 20:42.0 20:07.4 Forest Grove 39 10 Libby Kokes 20:41.7 20:08.7 Grant 40 9 Victoria Haynes 20:22.3 20:09.5 South Medford 41 12 Celeste Raymond 19:32.0 20:10.8 St Mary's Academy -- 12 Anna Peaslee 20:45.0 20:12.0 Lake Oswego 42 10 Rubi Vergara-Grindell 20:49.0 20:14.4 Forest Grove -- 12 Rachel Gibbs 20:51.0 20:16.4 Glencoe -- 12 Rachel Crawford 20:49.6 20:16.6 Oregon City 43 11 Debora DeLeon 20:53.0 20:18.4 Newberg 44 10 Tristan Husted 20:37.0 20:24.2 South Medford -- 12 Emily Trosino 19:46.4 20:25.2 Reynolds 45 11 Vivian Hawkinson 20:10 20:26.0 South Salem 46 11 Lia Newman 21:02.4 20:29.4 Lakeridge -- 12 Maggie Riley 19:50.7 20:29.5 Central Catholic -- 10 Julia Stevenson 19:50.9 20:29.7 Central Catholic 47 11 Laura Manning 21:03.9 20:30.9 Lakeridge -- 12 Courtney Repp 20:16 20:32.0 McNary 48 9 Amy Watson 20:52.1 20:39.3 South Medford 49 12 Laura Suzuki 21:14.0 20:41.0 Lakeridge 50 11 Savannah Stanton 21:17.0 20:42.4 Newberg 51 10 Grace Pinckney 20:56.4 20:43.6 South Eugene 52 11 Erica Keathley 20:06.4 20:45.2 Gresham 53 11 Stefanee Tolner 20:59.7 20:46.9 South Medford 54 10 Kimberly Heesacker 21:22.0 20:47.4 Forest Grove 55 10 Dorothy Wang 21:20.9 20:47.9 Lakeridge 56 11 Emilia Anderson 21:26.0 20:51.4 Forest Grove 57 11 Stefani Ritter 21:07.1 20:54.3 South Medford 58 11 Julia Khoury 21:31.0 20:56.4 Forest Grove 59 9 Elli Newman 21:30.1 20:57.1 Lakeridge -- 12 Laura Donaldson 20:43 20:59.0 McNary 60 10 Allie Rasmussen 20:44 21:00.0 West Salem -- 9 Jenna Gross 20:48 21:04.0 Sprague 61 12 Atalie Frank 20:53 21:09.0 South Salem 62 11 Rebeca DeLeon 21:45.0 21:10.4 Newberg 63 11 Courtney Hammagren 20:55 21:11.0 South Salem 64 11 Madeline Hearn 21:44.3 21:11.3 Lakeridge 65 10 Margaret Halstead 21:46.0 21:11.4 Newberg -- 11 Kaelia Neal 20:59 21:15.0 North Salem 66 11 Morgan Pfunder 21:29.1 21:16.3 South Eugene 67 11 Aleksa Wood 21:01 21:17.0 South Salem 68 11 Jacelyn Davis 20:40.0 21:18.8 Gresham 69 11 Alicia Phan 21:03 21:19.0 West Salem 70 10 Emma Bidwell 21:03 21:19.0 South Salem 71 11 Irena Pia 21:55.0 21:20.4 Newberg 72 12 Madeline Bochereau 21:13 21:29.0 West Salem 73 11 Alicia Nunziato 20:50.9 21:29.7 Gresham 74 12 McKaelie Wolfe 22:07.0 21:32.4 Newberg 75 11 Ana Ramirez 21:19 21:35.0 West Salem 76 11 Abbie Nilan 22:18.9 21:45.9 Grant 77 9 Maddy Eyerly 21:33 21:49.0 South Salem 78 12 Bethany Reding 21:54 22:10.0 South Salem 79 10 Grace Livengoood 22:04 22:20.0 West Salem 80 11 Minerva Bron 21:41.3 22:20.1 Gresham 81 10 Emily Cantrell-Cole 22:13 22:29.0 West Salem 82 10 Madison Taylor 21:55.1 22:33.9 Gresham 83 9 Esther Harris 23:12.0 22:37.4 Forest Grove 84 12 Jessica Steigerwald 23:37.0 23:02.4 Forest Grove 1) Jesuit 8 - 9 - 16 - 17 - 20 - (24) - (29) = 70 2) Grant 4 - 5 - 10 - 21 - 34 - (39) - (76) = 74 3) South Eugene 1 - 3 - 18 - 32 - 33 - (51) - (66) = 87 4) Sunset 6 - 13 - 15 - 27 - 28 - (30) - (35) = 89 5) St Mary's Academy 2 - 12 - 14 - 26 - 36 - (37) - (41) = 90 6) South Medford 23 - 25 - 40 - 44 - 48 - (53) - (57) = 180 7) Lakeridge 7 - 46 - 47 - 49 - 55 - (59) - (64) = 204 8) Newberg 22 - 43 - 50 - 62 - 65 - (71) - (74) = 242 9) Gresham 19 - 31 - 52 - 68 - 73 - (80) - (82) = 243 10) Forest Grove 38 - 42 - 54 - 56 - 58 - (83) - (84) = 248 11) West Salem 11 - 60 - 69 - 72 - 75 - (79) - (81) = 287 12) South Salem 45 - 61 - 63 - 67 - 70 - (77) - (78) = 306 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
