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Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2006 Girls 6A Projections

Score						League	State	Adj
1	Sheldon		Casey Masterson		18:41	18:21	18:00
2	Clackamas	Claire Michel		18:18	18:43	18:05
3	Jesuit		Adrienne McGuirk	18:04	18:37	18:20
4	Jesuit		Noelle VanRysselberghe	18:06	18:39	18:22
--	Centennial	Michelle Dettmann	19:08	18:48	18:30
--	Aloha		Shelby Brennan		18:31	19:04	18:45	
5	Jesuit		Katie Sullivan		18:17	18:50		
--	Milwaukie	Erin McLaughlin		19:19	19:44	18:55
6	Sunset		Audrey Botti		18:25	18:58		
7	West Linn	Taylor Nowlin		19:37	20:02	19:05
8	Sunset		Crissy Foster		18:35	19:08		
--	W. Salem	Maren Westby		19:19		19:08
9	Gresham		? Khalia Tidwell			19:10
10	Lincoln		Marsha Lampi		19:03	19:36	19:15
--	N. Medford	Brittany Dunn		19:36	19:16		
--	McKay		Janelle Everetts	20:32		19:18
11	Redmond		Kris Thomasberg		19:59		19:19
--  	Newberg		Sarah Boyd		19:12	19:46	19:20
12	S. Salem	Katie Thede		19:49		19:20
--	S. Medford	Piper Delany		19:43	19:23		
13	S. Eugene	Brookie Wilson		19:46	19:26		
14	St. Mary's	Alexa Kearns		19:48	19:28		
--	S. Medford	Kelsey Bradshaw		19:49	19:29		
15	Jesuit		Claire Hagler		19:04	19:37		
16	Jesuit		Liz Miller		19:07	19:40		
--	Hood River	Erin Jones		20:00	19:40		
17	S. Eugene	Alayna Oleksa		20:00	19:40		
18	Sunset		Julia Quiring		19:10	19:43		
19	S. Eugene	Whitney Pitman		20:03	19:43		
--	McKay		Megan Everetts		20:58		19:46
20	Tigard		Ali Davis		19:13	19:47		
--	Westview	Bianca Martin		19:16	19:49		
21	Jesuit		Lauren Tehan		19:18	19:51		
--	Southridge	Taylor Smiley		19:19	19:52		
--	Roseburg	Bryanna Oelrich		20:14	19:54		
22	Jesuit		Elizabeth Murphy	19:22	19:55		
23	Sheldon		Madison Randall		20:16	19:56		
24	Tualatin	Emily Wheeler		19:22	19:56		
25	Tigard		Ellie Bradley		19:22	19:56		
26	S. Salem	Rachel Rasberry		20:00		19:59
27	Sunset		Maddie Rousseau		19:27	20:00		
28	Sheldon		Katherine Barnhart	20:24	20:04		
29	St. Mary's	Taylor Ffitch		20:25	20:05		
30	S. Eugene	Taylor Drouet		20:25	20:05		
--	N. Salem	Erin Howe		20:07		20:05
31	St. Mary's	Lucy Whipps		20:25	20:05		
32	Sunset		Rosalyn Huard		19:34	20:07		
33	Redmond		Rita Aulie		20:41		20:08
34	Tigard		Sarah Walsh		19:35	20:09		
--	Oregon City	Hannah Groshong		19:44	20:09		
--	Wilson		Amelia Holcombe		19:52	20:25	20:10	
35	S. Salem	Erika Snawder		21:07		20:10
--	Beaverton	Sarah Curry		19:39	20:12		
--	Lake Oswego	Shelley Chestler	19:47	20:12
--	Putnam		Sammy Parr		19:50	20:15		
36	S. Salem	Chelsea Sinks		20:51		20:15
--	Hood River	Melissa Kauffman	20:36	20:16		
37	Tualatin	Devon Frazier		19:42	20:16		
-- 	Forest Grove	Laura Matzke		19:43	20:17		
38	Franklin	Elise Manley		19:44	20:17		
39	Tualatin	Kelsey Stilson		19:45	20:19		
40	Sheldon		Nori Rice		20:39	20:19		
-- 	Newberg		Dani Hawblitzel		19:48	20:22		
41	S. Eugene	Lauren Graebner		20:47	20:27		
42	Tigard		Cassie Carroll		19:53	20:27		
43	Franklin	Joy Shufeldt		19:54	20:27		
44	Sunset		Paige Padberg		19:57	20:30		
45	Sheldon		Amy Nelson		20:50	20:30		
46	Gresham		Jaime Demars		20:53	20:33		
--	Grant		Kristen Delwiche	20:01	20:34		
-- 	Canby		Adrienne Baglien	20:02	20:36		
47	Clackamas	Meryl Butcher		20:14	20:39		
48	West Linn	Rachel Seigneur		20:16	20:41		
49	Sunset		Ellen Lekas		20:09	20:42		
50	Clackamas	Kate Jette		20:18	20:43		
--	Sandy		Lynsey Bender		21:06	20:46		
51	Tualatin	Erica Brabeck		20:14	20:48		
52	Tualatin	Jeanette Jones		20:16	20:50		
53	Lincoln		Iris Lerch		20:17	20:50		
54	Lincoln		Becky Anderson		20:19	20:52		
55	Gresham		Melissa Allen		21:13	20:53		
56	Redmond		Heather Clear		21:17		20:53
57	St. Mary's	Tara Higgins		21:14	20:54		
58	S. Eugene	Ally Weinhold		21:17	20:57		
59	St. Mary's	Allison Harney		21:17	20:57		
60	Tualatin	Amanda Welter		20:23	20:57		
61	West Linn	Natalie Pittenger	20:33	20:58
--	Wilson		Shannon Jensen		20:28	21:01		
62	West Linn	Whitney Harmon		20:37	21:02		
63	St. Mary's	Stephanie McCuaig	21:26	21:06		
64	S. Eugene	Lauren Harvey		21:27	21:07		
65	Lincoln		Betsy Kolberg		20:35	21:08		
66	Lincoln		Jasmine Volk		20:36	21:09		
67	West Linn	Diana Crane		20:47	21:12		
68	Gresham		Natasha Raines		21:32	21:12		
69	S. Salem	Kylie Moore		21:56		21:15
70	S. Salem	Shealyn Friedrich	22:30		21:18
71	Clackamas	Lydia Guenther		20:54	21:19		
72	Clackamas	Megan Forsyth		20:54	21:19		
73	Franklin	Jenna Passalacqua	20:47	21:20		
74	S. Salem	Katie Taylor		22:04		21:22
75	St. Mary's	Megan Minor		21:43	21:23		
76	West Linn	Kelsey Gerber		21:01	21:26		
77	Tualatin	Melissa Arndorfer	20:52	21:26		
78	Lincoln		Maddie Byers		20:58	21:31		
79	Redmond		Betty Garcia		22:04		21:32
80	Gresham		Alix Franco		21:53	21:33		
81	Gresham		Sarah Hurwitz		21:56	21:36		
82	Clackamas	Abby Hoover		21:14	21:39
83	Tigard		Stephanie Fekete	21:10	21:44		
--	Grant		Julie Liedel		21:14	21:47		
84	Sheldon		Ginny Butt		22:08	21:48		
85	West Linn	Kristi Pace		21:24	21:49		
86	Sheldon		Stephanie Stickels	22:14	21:54		
87	Gresham		KayAnna Cecchi		22:16	21:56		
88	Lincoln		Tiffany Harvey		21:26	21:59		
89	Clackamas	Jordan Gannon		21:36	22:01
90	Franklin	Amanda Cordes		21:44	22:17		
91	Tigard		Andrea Kirch		21:55	22:29		
92	Franklin	Katie Skinner		22:05	22:38		
93	Franklin	Jamie Waltz		23:19	23:52		
94	Redmond		Taylor Garr		24:38		24:01
95	Redmond		Samantha Hausen		25:39		24:02
96	Franklin	Vivian Reyes		23:37	24:10		
97	Tigard		Bethany Lassetter	24:25	24:59		
98	Redmond		Marce Little		25:05		25:18

1) Jesuit	(43) 3-4-5-15-16-21-22
2) Sunset	(91) 6-8-18-27-32-44-49
3) S. Eugene	(120) 13-17-19-30-41-58-64
4) Sheldon	(137) 1-23-28-40-45-84-86
5) S. Salem	(178) 12-26-35-36-69-70-74
6) St. Mary's	(190) 14-29-31-57-59-63-75
7) Tualatin	(203) 24-37-39-51-52-60-77
8) Tigard	(204) 20-25-34-42-83-91-97
9) Clackamas	(242) 2-47-50-71-72-82-89
10) West Linn	(245) 7-48-61-62-67-76-85
11) Lincoln	(248) 10-53-54-65-66-78-88
12) Gresham	(258) 9-46-55-68-80-81-87
13) Redmond	(273) 11-33-56-79-94-95-98
14) Franklin	(336) 38-43-73-90-92-93-96

The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should
be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each
league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit
expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts.
I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time
and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower,
so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to take into account every
variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack.
The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals.  A few notable
athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the
above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack, but
for the most part, results tracked pretty well from one meet to the next for
teams and individuals. The key was coming up with some average numbers for how
fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Danner, adidas, New Balance,
etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare
respective courses.

The Central Valley meet was by far the most difficult to make sense of, due to
the weather conditions which affected people to widely varying degrees.  In
the end, I chose to go with standardized Danner/adidas times for consistency.