Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2006 Girls 6A Projections Score League State Adj 1 Sheldon Casey Masterson 18:41 18:21 18:00 2 Clackamas Claire Michel 18:18 18:43 18:05 3 Jesuit Adrienne McGuirk 18:04 18:37 18:20 4 Jesuit Noelle VanRysselberghe 18:06 18:39 18:22 -- Centennial Michelle Dettmann 19:08 18:48 18:30 -- Aloha Shelby Brennan 18:31 19:04 18:45 5 Jesuit Katie Sullivan 18:17 18:50 -- Milwaukie Erin McLaughlin 19:19 19:44 18:55 6 Sunset Audrey Botti 18:25 18:58 7 West Linn Taylor Nowlin 19:37 20:02 19:05 8 Sunset Crissy Foster 18:35 19:08 -- W. Salem Maren Westby 19:19 19:08 9 Gresham ? Khalia Tidwell 19:10 10 Lincoln Marsha Lampi 19:03 19:36 19:15 -- N. Medford Brittany Dunn 19:36 19:16 -- McKay Janelle Everetts 20:32 19:18 11 Redmond Kris Thomasberg 19:59 19:19 -- Newberg Sarah Boyd 19:12 19:46 19:20 12 S. Salem Katie Thede 19:49 19:20 -- S. Medford Piper Delany 19:43 19:23 13 S. Eugene Brookie Wilson 19:46 19:26 14 St. Mary's Alexa Kearns 19:48 19:28 -- S. Medford Kelsey Bradshaw 19:49 19:29 15 Jesuit Claire Hagler 19:04 19:37 16 Jesuit Liz Miller 19:07 19:40 -- Hood River Erin Jones 20:00 19:40 17 S. Eugene Alayna Oleksa 20:00 19:40 18 Sunset Julia Quiring 19:10 19:43 19 S. Eugene Whitney Pitman 20:03 19:43 -- McKay Megan Everetts 20:58 19:46 20 Tigard Ali Davis 19:13 19:47 -- Westview Bianca Martin 19:16 19:49 21 Jesuit Lauren Tehan 19:18 19:51 -- Southridge Taylor Smiley 19:19 19:52 -- Roseburg Bryanna Oelrich 20:14 19:54 22 Jesuit Elizabeth Murphy 19:22 19:55 23 Sheldon Madison Randall 20:16 19:56 24 Tualatin Emily Wheeler 19:22 19:56 25 Tigard Ellie Bradley 19:22 19:56 26 S. Salem Rachel Rasberry 20:00 19:59 27 Sunset Maddie Rousseau 19:27 20:00 28 Sheldon Katherine Barnhart 20:24 20:04 29 St. Mary's Taylor Ffitch 20:25 20:05 30 S. Eugene Taylor Drouet 20:25 20:05 -- N. Salem Erin Howe 20:07 20:05 31 St. Mary's Lucy Whipps 20:25 20:05 32 Sunset Rosalyn Huard 19:34 20:07 33 Redmond Rita Aulie 20:41 20:08 34 Tigard Sarah Walsh 19:35 20:09 -- Oregon City Hannah Groshong 19:44 20:09 -- Wilson Amelia Holcombe 19:52 20:25 20:10 35 S. Salem Erika Snawder 21:07 20:10 -- Beaverton Sarah Curry 19:39 20:12 -- Lake Oswego Shelley Chestler 19:47 20:12 -- Putnam Sammy Parr 19:50 20:15 36 S. Salem Chelsea Sinks 20:51 20:15 -- Hood River Melissa Kauffman 20:36 20:16 37 Tualatin Devon Frazier 19:42 20:16 -- Forest Grove Laura Matzke 19:43 20:17 38 Franklin Elise Manley 19:44 20:17 39 Tualatin Kelsey Stilson 19:45 20:19 40 Sheldon Nori Rice 20:39 20:19 -- Newberg Dani Hawblitzel 19:48 20:22 41 S. Eugene Lauren Graebner 20:47 20:27 42 Tigard Cassie Carroll 19:53 20:27 43 Franklin Joy Shufeldt 19:54 20:27 44 Sunset Paige Padberg 19:57 20:30 45 Sheldon Amy Nelson 20:50 20:30 46 Gresham Jaime Demars 20:53 20:33 -- Grant Kristen Delwiche 20:01 20:34 -- Canby Adrienne Baglien 20:02 20:36 47 Clackamas Meryl Butcher 20:14 20:39 48 West Linn Rachel Seigneur 20:16 20:41 49 Sunset Ellen Lekas 20:09 20:42 50 Clackamas Kate Jette 20:18 20:43 -- Sandy Lynsey Bender 21:06 20:46 51 Tualatin Erica Brabeck 20:14 20:48 52 Tualatin Jeanette Jones 20:16 20:50 53 Lincoln Iris Lerch 20:17 20:50 54 Lincoln Becky Anderson 20:19 20:52 55 Gresham Melissa Allen 21:13 20:53 56 Redmond Heather Clear 21:17 20:53 57 St. Mary's Tara Higgins 21:14 20:54 58 S. Eugene Ally Weinhold 21:17 20:57 59 St. Mary's Allison Harney 21:17 20:57 60 Tualatin Amanda Welter 20:23 20:57 61 West Linn Natalie Pittenger 20:33 20:58 -- Wilson Shannon Jensen 20:28 21:01 62 West Linn Whitney Harmon 20:37 21:02 63 St. Mary's Stephanie McCuaig 21:26 21:06 64 S. Eugene Lauren Harvey 21:27 21:07 65 Lincoln Betsy Kolberg 20:35 21:08 66 Lincoln Jasmine Volk 20:36 21:09 67 West Linn Diana Crane 20:47 21:12 68 Gresham Natasha Raines 21:32 21:12 69 S. Salem Kylie Moore 21:56 21:15 70 S. Salem Shealyn Friedrich 22:30 21:18 71 Clackamas Lydia Guenther 20:54 21:19 72 Clackamas Megan Forsyth 20:54 21:19 73 Franklin Jenna Passalacqua 20:47 21:20 74 S. Salem Katie Taylor 22:04 21:22 75 St. Mary's Megan Minor 21:43 21:23 76 West Linn Kelsey Gerber 21:01 21:26 77 Tualatin Melissa Arndorfer 20:52 21:26 78 Lincoln Maddie Byers 20:58 21:31 79 Redmond Betty Garcia 22:04 21:32 80 Gresham Alix Franco 21:53 21:33 81 Gresham Sarah Hurwitz 21:56 21:36 82 Clackamas Abby Hoover 21:14 21:39 83 Tigard Stephanie Fekete 21:10 21:44 -- Grant Julie Liedel 21:14 21:47 84 Sheldon Ginny Butt 22:08 21:48 85 West Linn Kristi Pace 21:24 21:49 86 Sheldon Stephanie Stickels 22:14 21:54 87 Gresham KayAnna Cecchi 22:16 21:56 88 Lincoln Tiffany Harvey 21:26 21:59 89 Clackamas Jordan Gannon 21:36 22:01 90 Franklin Amanda Cordes 21:44 22:17 91 Tigard Andrea Kirch 21:55 22:29 92 Franklin Katie Skinner 22:05 22:38 93 Franklin Jamie Waltz 23:19 23:52 94 Redmond Taylor Garr 24:38 24:01 95 Redmond Samantha Hausen 25:39 24:02 96 Franklin Vivian Reyes 23:37 24:10 97 Tigard Bethany Lassetter 24:25 24:59 98 Redmond Marce Little 25:05 25:18 1) Jesuit (43) 3-4-5-15-16-21-22 2) Sunset (91) 6-8-18-27-32-44-49 3) S. Eugene (120) 13-17-19-30-41-58-64 4) Sheldon (137) 1-23-28-40-45-84-86 5) S. Salem (178) 12-26-35-36-69-70-74 6) St. Mary's (190) 14-29-31-57-59-63-75 7) Tualatin (203) 24-37-39-51-52-60-77 8) Tigard (204) 20-25-34-42-83-91-97 9) Clackamas (242) 2-47-50-71-72-82-89 10) West Linn (245) 7-48-61-62-67-76-85 11) Lincoln (248) 10-53-54-65-66-78-88 12) Gresham (258) 9-46-55-68-80-81-87 13) Redmond (273) 11-33-56-79-94-95-98 14) Franklin (336) 38-43-73-90-92-93-96 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack, but for the most part, results tracked pretty well from one meet to the next for teams and individuals. The key was coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Danner, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. The Central Valley meet was by far the most difficult to make sense of, due to the weather conditions which affected people to widely varying degrees. In the end, I chose to go with standardized Danner/adidas times for consistency.