Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2011 Girls 6A Projections # League State manual 1 Sara Tsai 18:30 18:04 SEug 9 2 Paige Rice 17:54 18:14 SMA 10 18:05 3 Sarah Hastings 18:33 18:07 Crtr 12 4 Erin Clark 18:36 18:10 SEug 11 -- Claire DeVoe 17:51.2 18:18.2 Linc 12 5 Adrienne Demaree 17:57.3 18:24.3 JHS 12 -- Gracie Todd 18:51 18:25 SHS 9 6 Paige Kouba 18:55 18:29 SEug 12 7 Gracie Tostenson 18:57 18:31 Crtr 10 8 Kelly O'Neill 18:21.7 18:32.7 Lkrg 11 -- Lauren Morgan 19:04 18:38 SMed 12 9 Olivia Artaiz 18:15.4 18:42.4 JHS 12 -- Erin Gregoire 18:16.7 18:43.7 Beav 9 10 Karen Qu 18:21.3 18:48.3 Snst 11 -- Maggie Schmaedick 19:15 18:49 SHS 11 11 Dylan Hite 18:31.8 18:58.8 JHS 9 -- Kelsi Klotter 19:29 19:03 SHS 12 12 Charlotte Corless 18:37.2 19:04.2 Snst 10 -- Amanda Stowe 18:38.9 19:05.9 Aloh 11 13 Sarah Fahmy 18:40.7 19:07.7 Snst 11 14 Phacelia Cramer 19:36 19:10 SEug 9 15 Britney Wimberly 19:37 19:11 Crtr 10 16 Emily Weber 18:54 19:13 SSlm 12 -- Sarah Medved 18:47.2 19:14.2 Wstv 10 17 Kennedy Martin 18:49 19:19 Gres 11 18 Megan Mullaney 18:52.7 19:19.7 JHS 11 19 Emma Gosser 18:53.3 19:20.3 Snst 12 20 Lindsay Sheaffer 18:57.3 19:24.3 JHS 11 21 Greer Davis 18:59.3 19:26.3 Snst 12 22 Taylor Moscoe 19:03.8 19:30.8 JHS 10 -- Mandie Maddux 19:12 19:32 SBHS 12 23 Megan Hastings 20:02 19:36 Crtr 10 24 Jasmyn Andrews 20:05 19:39 Crtr 12 -- Kristin Coffman 19:10.0 19:40 Tual 12 -- Emily Trosino 19:22 19:42 REY 11 25 Zani Moore 19:17.6 19:44.6 JHS 9 -- Alexandria Cross 19:24.0 19:54 Tual 11 26 Lia Newman 19:44.9 19:55.9 Lkrg 10 27 Bella Gazzola 19:44 20:04 SMA 12 28 Tefna Mitchell-Hoegh 19:46 20:05 Red 11 29 Ana Harvey 19:38.8 20:05.8 Snst 10 30 Elena Torry-Schrag 19:37.0 20:07 FG 11 -- Rachel Crawford 19:56.9 20:07.9 OC 11 -- Maggie Riley 19:48 20:08 CCat 11 31 Celeste Raymond 19:51 20:11 SMA 11 32 Carly Januzzi 19:51 20:11 SMA 12 33 Genevieve Brandt 20:37 20:11 SEug 11 34 Talli Koskela 19:42.0 20:12 Newb 12 35 Kellen Friedrich 19:58 20:17 SSlm 12 36 Dorothy Zhang 19:53.3 20:20.3 Snst 12 37 Olivia Masek-McIntosh 19:52.0 20:22 FG 12 38 Vivian Hawkinson 20:03 20:22 SSlm 10 39 Lily Martin Chamberlain 20:16.0 20:27.0 Gran 12 40 Christina Mulch 20:16.7 20:27.7 Gran 12 41 Libby Kokes 20:18.9 20:29.9 Gran 9 42 Erica Keathley 20:01 20:31 Gres 10 43 Haley McDonald 20:02 20:32 Gres 11 44 Brooke Hettick 20:58 20:32 SEug 10 -- Kaelia Neal 20:16 20:35 NSHS 10 -- Julia Stevenson 20:18 20:38 CCat 9 -- Courtney Repp 20:21 20:40 McN 11 -- Kayla McNeeley 20:29.4 20:40.4 Clac 10 -- Rebecca Donnelly 20:30.5 20:41.5 WLin 11 45 Dakota Steen 20:23 20:42 Red 10 46 Mickayla Phillis 20:24 20:44 SMA 12 47 Shelby Owen 21:11 20:45 Crtr 12 -- Krissy Peterson 20:34.8 20:45.8 Canb 11 48 Aleksa Wood 20:29 20:48 SSlm 10 -- Lauren Lykins 20:19.0 20:49 Hils 10 -- Claire Lawson 20:21.0 20:51 McMi 12 49 Maddy Kacymarowski 20:41.5 20:52.5 Gran 11 50 Nika Jin 21:22 20:56 SEug 12 51 Molly McCullough 20:36 20:56 SMA 9 52 Abbie Nilan 20:47.1 20:58.1 Gran 10 -- Ashley Burger 20:41 21:00 McN 12 53 Irena Pia 20:30.0 21:00 Newb 10 54 Rubi Vergara-Grindell 20:31.0 21:01 FG 9 55 Emelia Austin 20:44 21:04 SMA 9 56 Elissa Brouillard 20:50 21:09 Red 12 57 Laura Suzuki 21:00.0 21:11.0 Lkrg 11 58 Lea Zawada 21:01.8 21:12.8 Lkrg 10 59 Emilia Anderson 20:49.0 21:19 FG 10 60 Suly Rosales-Moreno 20:50.0 21:20 FG 12 61 Madeline Hummel 21:11.0 21:22.0 Lkrg 9 62 Aubrey Larson 21:13.7 21:24.7 Lkrg 11 63 Debora DeLeon 20:55.0 21:25 Newb 10 64 Atalie Frank 21:08 21:27 SSlm 11 -- Ana Ramirez 21:10 21:29 WSlm 10 65 Savannah Stanton 20:59.0 21:29 Newb 10 66 Clara Olson 21:18.2 21:29.2 Gran 12 67 Samantha Scholz 21:13 21:32 Red 11 68 Sierra Lindhorst 21:07 21:37 Gres 12 69 McKaelie Wolfe 21:09.0 21:39 Newb 11 70 Andi Bisbjerg 21:29.0 21:40.0 Lkrg 10 71 Alicia Nunziato 21:14 21:44 Gres 10 72 Diana Tovar 21:16 21:46 Gres 12 73 Savanna Atherton 21:45.6 21:56.6 Gran 12 74 Hanna Kristensen 21:31 22:01 Gres 12 75 Julia Khoury 21:38.0 22:08 FG 10 76 Madeleine Kern 21:41.0 22:11 Newb 12 77 Richee Stevens 21:53 22:12 Red 11 78 Gabrielle Desimone 22:44 22:18 Crtr 12 79 Rebecca DeLeon 21:54.0 22:24 Newb 10 80 Courtney Hammagren 22:08 22:27 SSlm 10 81 Tacey Smith 22:01.0 22:31 FG 12 82 Kiersten Ochsner 22:51 23:10 Red 10 83 Taylor Bernard 22:57 23:16 Red 9 84 Yun Mee Crossler-Laird 22:58 23:17 SSlm 10 1) S. Eugene 1 - 4 - 6 - 14 - 33 - (44) - (50) = 58 2) Jesuit 5 - 9 - 11 - 18 - 20 - (22) - (25) = 63 3) Crater 3 - 7 - 15 - 23 - 24 - (47) - (78) = 72 4) Sunset 10 - 12 - 13 - 19 - 21 - (29) - (36) = 75 5) St. Mary's 2 - 27 - 31 - 32 - 46 - (51) - (55) = 138 6) S. Salem 16 - 35 - 38 - 48 - 64 - (80) - (84) = 201 7) Lakeridge 8 - 26 - 57 - 58 - 61 - (62) - (70) = 210 8) Grant 39 - 40 - 41 - 49 - 52 - (66) - (73) = 221 9) Forest Grove 30 - 37 - 54 - 59 - 60 - (75) - (81) = 240 10) Gresham 17 - 42 - 43 - 68 - 71 - (72) - (74) = 241 11) Redmond 28 - 45 - 56 - 67 - 77 - (82) - (83) = 273 12) Newberg 34 - 53 - 63 - 65 - 69 - (76) - (79) = 284 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
