Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2010 Girls 6A Projections - updated 11/05 note: Grant's #2 assumed not running due to soccer commitment # League State manual 1 Annamarie Maag 17:29.6 17:34.6 17:30 Jesuit 12 2 Paige Rice 18:08.0 17:59.0 17:35 St. Mary's 9 3 Payton Schutte 18:09.8 18:14.8 Jesuit 12 4 Amira Joseph 18:15.7 18:20.7 18:16 Jesuit 12 5 Paige Kouba 19:50 18:19.6 S. Eugene 11 6 Emily Weber 18:53.2 18:40.1 18:20 S. Salem 11 7 Erin Clark 19:51 18:20.6 S. Eugene 10 8 Adrienne Demaree 18:16.1 18:21.1 Jesuit 11 9 Damaris Remigio 19:53 18:22.6 Crater 12 10 Alexandria Cross 18:31.0 18:24.0 Tualatin 10 11 Kristin Coffman 18:48.0 18:41.0 Tualatin 11 -- Andrea Dettmann 18:52.0 18:43.0 Centennial 12 -- Hayley Gregoire 18:20.0 18:45.9 Beaverton 12 12 Piper Donaghu 18:41.1 18:46.6 Grant 9 13 Jessica Vig 20:38 19:07.6 18:47 Crater 12 -- Lauren Morgan 20:20 18:49.6 S. Medford 11 14 Latane Cox 18:44.4 18:49.9 Lakeridge 12 15 Kelsi Schaer 18:57.0 18:50.0 Tigard 12 16 Kelly O'Neill 18:49.7 18:50.2 Lakeridge 10 17 Claire DeVoe 18:24.4 18:50.3 Lincoln 11 -- Maggie Schmaedick 20:21 18:50.6 Sheldon 10 18 Shannon Mahoney 18:48.8 18:53.8 Jesuit 12 19 Ellen Patterson 19:04.0 18:55.0 St. Mary's 10 -- Kelsi Klotter 20:26 18:55.6 Sheldon 11 -- Brenna Phelps 20:26 18:55.6 N. Medford 11 20 Genevieve Reaume 18:52.8 18:57.8 Jesuit 12 21 Christy Richards 19:08.0 18:59.0 St. Mary's 12 22 Vivian Hawkinson 19:16.4 19:03.3 S. Salem 9 23 Courtney Hochstetler 19:20.9 19:07.8 S. Salem 12 24 Nora Wilson 20:39 19:08.6 S. Eugene 12 25 Ragan Allen 19:03.4 19:08.9 Grant 12 26 Gracie Tostenson 20:40 19:09.6 Crater 9 27 Natalie Mosman 20:40 19:09.6 S. Eugene 9 28 Britney Wimberly 20:42 19:11.6 Crater 9 -- Emily Trosino 19:21.0 19:12.0 Reynolds 10 29 Olivia Artaiz 19:07.1 19:12.1 Jesuit 11 30 Sarah Hastings 20:43 19:12.6 Crater 11 31 Tefna Mitchell 19:27.0 19:13.9 Redmond 10 -- Talli Koskela 19:21.0 19:14.0 Newberg 11 32 Erin Bergmann 20:09.0 20:00.0 19:16 St. Mary's 12 -- Karen Qu 18:55.8 19:21.7 Sunset 10 33 Amelia Helmick 20:53 19:22.6 S. Eugene 12 34 Alia Mowery 20:53 19:22.6 S. Eugene 12 35 Anna Patton 18:56.1 19:24.7 Lincoln 10 -- Lauren Lykins 19:32.0 19:25.0 Hillsboro 9 -- Eredi Pintor 19:33.0 19:26.0 Forest Grove 12 36 Kellen Friedrich 19:39.6 19:26.5 S. Salem 11 -- Sarah Fahmy 19:01.2 19:27.2 Sunset 10 37 Lauren Roberts 19:14.4 19:40.3 Lincoln 11 -- Desyre Blackburn 19:15.5 19:41.4 Aloha 10 -- Kennedy Martin 19:51.0 19:42.0 Gresham 10 -- Emily Gaddis 19:39.2 19:44.7 Lake Oswego 12 -- Grace Lin 19:59.1 19:46.0 W. Salem 12 38 Morgan Johnstone 19:53.0 19:46.0 Tualatin 12 39 Lila Hawkinson 20:03.7 19:50.6 S. Salem 12 -- Haley McDonald 20:00.0 19:51.0 Gresham 10 40 Mandie Maddux 20:04.0 19:55.0 Barlow 11 41 Lia Newman 19:49.6 19:55.1 Lakeridge 9 -- Hillary Harris 20:06.0 19:59.0 Glencoe 12 42 Bella Gazzola 20:09.0 20:00.0 St. Mary's 11 43 Sarah MacKenzie 20:13.3 20:00.2 Redmond 12 44 Molly Potter 19:34.6 20:00.5 Lincoln 9 45 Stephanie Arnold 20:08.0 20:01.0 Tigard 12 46 Nora Helfand 20:11.0 20:02.0 St. Mary's 11 47 Genevieve Brandt 21:36 20:05.6 S. Eugene 10 48 Netanya Beard 20:15.0 20:06.0 St. Mary's 12 -- Krissy Peterson 20:03.2 20:08.7 Canby 10 49 Lily Martin Chamberlain 20:06.8 20:12.3 Grant 11 -- Ellie Clow 20:08.9 20:14.4 West Linn 11 -- Steffani White 20:31.4 20:18.3 W. Salem 12 50 Madeline Hearn 20:17.3 20:22.8 Lakeridge 9 -- Alyssia Kuenzi 20:39.1 20:26.0 Sprague 11 -- Chelsea Ollar 20:20.7 20:26.2 West Linn 12 51 Katie Humphrey 20:34.0 20:27.0 Tigard 12 52 Jasmyn Andrews 21:59 20:28.6 Crater 11 53 Alexis Snyder 20:36.0 20:29.0 Tualatin 12 54 Elise Otteson 20:40.0 20:31.0 Barlow 12 -- Sarah Lopez 20:45.7 20:32.6 N. Salem 12 55 Kelsey Walker 20:41.0 20:34.0 Tigard 12 56 Emily Walch 20:46.0 20:39.0 Tigard 11 57 Ashley Marcy 20:16.3 20:42.2 Lincoln 12 58 Tracie Tran 20:51.0 20:44.0 Tigard 12 59 Dakota Steen 20:57.6 20:44.5 Redmond 9 60 Mairin Peck 20:27.7 20:53.6 Lincoln 11 61 Rachael Collmer 21:03.0 20:54.0 Barlow 10 62 Julia Kennedy 21:01.0 20:54.0 Tualatin 12 63 Aleksa Wood 21:09.1 20:56.0 S. Salem 9 64 Christine Ho 21:05.0 20:58.0 Tualatin 10 65 Elissa Brouillard 21:15.5 21:02.4 Redmond 11 66 Becca Pearson 19:46.0 20:11.9 Lincoln 9 67 Laura Suzuki 21:11.0 21:16.5 Lakeridge 10 68 Julia Sherman 21:11.8 21:17.3 Grant 9 69 Aubrey Larson 21:16.0 21:21.5 Lakeridge 10 70 Ann Jensen 21:31.0 21:22.0 Barlow 10 71 Miranda Williams 21:37.4 21:24.3 S. Salem 10 72 Michaela Stevens 21:34.0 21:25.0 Barlow 11 73 Heidi Patton 21:32.0 21:25.0 Tualatin 12 74 Megan Franz 21:32.0 21:25.0 Tigard 9 75 Megan Hastings 22:00 21:29.6 Crater 9 76 Leah Norquist 21:39.0 21:30.0 Barlow 9 77 Ine Raa 21:43.5 21:30.4 Redmond 12 78 Tara Johnson 21:36.3 21:41.8 Grant 10 79 Julia Reihs 21:58.0 21:49.0 Barlow 12 80 Manasa Adajian 21:48.8 21:54.3 Grant 12 81 Alexandra Van Alebeek 21:54.7 22:00.2 Lakeridge 10 82 Rachael Robinson 22:49.2 22:36.1 Redmond 12 83 Sophie Obayashi 22:40.9 22:46.4 Grant 11 84 Kiahna Brown 22:59.8 22:46.7 Redmond 9 1) Jesuit 1 - 3 - 4 - 8 - 18 - (20) - (29) = 34 2) S. Eugene 5 - 7 - 24 - 27 - 33 - (34) - (47) = 96 3) Crater 9 - 13 - 26 - 28 - 30 - (52) - (75) = 106 4) St. Mary's 2 - 19 - 21 - 32 - 42 - (46) - (48) = 116 5) S. Salem 6 - 22 - 23 - 36 - 39 - (63) - (71) = 126 6) Tualatin 10 - 11 - 38 - 53 - 62 - (64) - (73) = 174 7) Lakeridge 14 - 16 - 41 - 50 - 67 - (69) - (81) = 188 8) Lincoln 17 - 35 - 37 - 44 - 57 - (60) - (66) = 190 9) Tigard 15 - 45 - 51 - 55 - 56 - (58) - (74) = 222 10) Grant 12 - 25 - 49 - 68 - 78 - (80) - (83) = 232 11) Redmond 31 - 43 - 59 - 65 - 77 - (82) - (84) = 275 12) Barlow 40 - 54 - 61 - 70 - 72 - (76) - (79) = 297 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, Concordia, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
