Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2013 Boys 6A Projections 1 1 Kyle Thompson 15:25.7 12 Central Catholic 2 2 Geremia Lizier-Zmudzinski 15:30 12 Forest Grove 3 3 Ahmed Ibrahim 15:38.7 12 Reynolds 4 -- Ahmed Muhumed 15:56.8 9 David Douglas 5 4 Reilly Bloomer 15:58.8 11 South Eugene 6 5 TJ Wright 16:05.8 12 Sheldon 7 6 Jackson Mestler 16:06.8 10 Sheldon 8 -- Ray Schireman 16:08.8 12 North Medford 9 7 Roman Ollar 16:09.5 10 West Linn 10 -- Kenny Freeman 16:14.8 12 Roseburg 11 8 Daniel Thompson 16:16.3 10 Central Catholic 12 9 Devin Sellers 16:17.5 12 Aloha 13 10 Sam Lomax 16:20.1 11 Central Catholic 14 -- Nic McDaniel 16:20.4 12 McMinnville 15 -- Sam Remington 16:20.6 12 Jesuit 16 -- Sahil Doshi 16:22.2 12 Jesuit 17 -- Nathaniel Roberts 16:22.7 12 Sprague 18 11 Grayson Ollar 16:23.5 10 West Linn 19 -- Matthew Lovos 16:25.6 11 Tualatin 20 12 Mason Rouches 16:27.2 12 Glencoe 21 13 Glapougbae Garmondeh 16:27.7 12 Aloha 22 -- Austin Sanders 16:27.8 12 Crater 23 14 Abe Teklu 16:29.1 12 Glencoe 24 15 Gunnar Vik 16:29.5 11 Central Catholic 25 16 Henry Houghton 16:29.7 11 Grant 26 -- Al Lacey 16:32.0 12 Oregon City 27 -- Leo Lukens 16:32.6 10 Lakeridge 28 17 Sam Truax 16:32.8 11 Central Catholic 29 18 Ben Harter 16:32.8 12 Sheldon 30 -- Ben Rodriguez 16:34.8 12 Roseburg 31 19 Liam Burke 16:36.2 12 Lincoln 32 20 Eli Boudouris 16:36.4 11 Grant 33 (21) Dante Dalla Gasperina 16:36.7 12 Central Catholic 34 -- Thomas Morrell III 16:37.0 11 Centennial 35 (22) Zack Lavier 16:38.1 10 Central Catholic 36 23 Conor Egan 16:38.8 10 West Linn 37 24 Ronald Graham 16:39.3 11 Lincoln 38 -- Steven Cranston 16:39.3 10 Canby 39 -- Maneet Khaira 16:39.7 11 Sunset 40 25 Tristan Carpenter 16:42.8 11 Sheldon 41 -- Max Hite 16:43.5 10 Jesuit 42 -- Noah Belcik 16:44.5 10 Lakeridge 43 26 Jackson Cole 16:45.0 12 Grant 44 27 Andrew McCullough 16:48.8 12 South Eugene 45 28 Henry Fowler 16:49.8 12 Sheldon 46 29 Sam Ruck 16:51.7 12 South Salem 47 30 Gabe Collins 16:51.9 12 Lincoln 48 31 Michael Martin 16:52.8 10 South Eugene 49 32 Seth Berdahl 16:53.8 11 Forest Grove 50 33 Ransom Gravatt 16:58.5 10 Lincoln 51 34 Mason Wegener 16:58.8 10 South Eugene 52 35 Coby Eastwood 16:58.9 12 Lincoln 53 (36) Jenner Higgins 16:59.8 9 Sheldon 54 37 Miles Rouches 17:00.2 12 Glencoe 55 (38) Jacob Shelton 17:00.8 10 Sheldon 56 -- John Caufield 17:01.6 11 Tigard 57 39 Jacob Silberger-Franek 17:02.5 12 Grant 58 40 George Grenham 17:03.1 12 Grant 59 (41) Gabe Kearns 17:03.6 12 Grant 60 -- Lalo Uribe 17:03.9 12 Centennial 61 -- Trey Hargrove 17:05.7 12 McKay 62 42 Jacob Evans 17:05.8 11 West Linn 63 43 Brent Marsonette 17:05.9 12 Aloha 64 44 Luis Torres 17:07.4 10 Aloha 65 45 Daniel Rodriguez 17:07.7 12 Aloha 66 -- Mark French 17:08.1 10 Tualatin 67 46 Murimi Nyamu 17:09.1 10 Forest Grove 68 47 Miles Berglund 17:09.7 12 South Salem 69 48 Darby Estes 17:09.7 11 West Salem 70 49 Henry West 17:10.8 12 South Eugene 71 50 Archer Morgan 17:11.4 11 Forest Grove 72 -- Abdul Ahmed 17:11.7 11 David Douglas 73 (51) Joel Kramer 17:12.1 12 Aloha 74 52 Muhumed Noor 17:13.3 12 Reynolds 75 (53) Jack Walker 17:20.7 12 Grant 76 -- John Mendrin 17:20.7 10 North Salem 77 54 Santos Damian 17:24.7 12 Reynolds 78 (55) CJ Cling 17:28.8 12 South Eugene 79 56 John Patterson 17:30.7 11 South Salem 80 57 Hunter Mosman 17:31.7 10 West Salem 81 58 Michael Sullivan 17:32.4 12 West Linn 82 -- Riley Hankins 17:32.7 12 Sprague 83 59 Landon Apeland 17:33.4 11 Glencoe 84 (60) Glapoujay Garmondeh 17:34.0 12 Aloha 85 (61) Jacob Cytrynbaum 17:36.8 12 South Eugene 86 62 Johnathan Coleman 17:41.6 11 Reynolds 87 63 Aaron Orr 17:44.8 12 Forest Grove 88 64 Nate Van Ginkle 17:46.7 12 South Salem 89 (65) Duncan Stewart 17:47.0 11 Forest Grove 90 (66) Teddy Kortenhof 17:49.4 12 Lincoln 91 67 Grant Turner 17:49.7 12 Reynolds 92 68 Brian Gerig 17:53.7 11 Glencoe 93 (69) Carson Cohn 17:55.0 9 Lincoln 94 70 Noah Vaughn 17:57.7 11 West Salem 95 71 Hunter Schiess 17:58.7 9 West Salem 96 (72) Michael Katancik 18:00.0 12 West Linn 97 (73) Jeremy Hodges 18:04.2 12 Reynolds 98 (74) John Goetze 18:05.8 12 West Linn 99 (75) Everett Fellger 18:07.5 12 Forest Grove 100 76 Cooper Frantz-Geddes 18:14.7 10 West Salem 101 (77) Taylor England 18:16.6 11 Glencoe 102 78 Andrew Colburn 18:18.7 11 South Salem 103 (79) Reed Smith 18:37.7 10 West Salem 104 (80) Jake Howell 18:40.2 9 Glencoe 105 (81) Cole Andresen 18:45.7 11 Reynolds 106 (82) Jaken Garcia 18:49.7 11 West Salem 107 (83) Keaton Nash 19:21.7 9 South Salem 108 (84) Ian Nile 19:24.7 11 South Salem 1) Central Catholic 1 - 8 - 10 - 15 - 17 - (21) - (22) = 51 (#1-5 spread = 67.1 sec) 2) Sheldon 5 - 6 - 18 - 25 - 28 - (36) - (38) = 82 (#1-5 spread = 44 sec) 3) Grant 16 - 20 - 26 - 39 - 40 - (41) - (53) = 141 (#1-5 spread = 33.4 sec) 4) Lincoln 19 - 24 - 30 - 33 - 35 - (66) - (69) = 141 (#1-5 spread = 22.7 sec) 5) West Linn 7 - 11 - 23 - 42 - 58 - (72) - (74) = 141 (#1-5 spread = 82.9 sec) 6) South Eugene 4 - 27 - 31 - 34 - 49 - (55) - (61) = 145 (#1-5 spread = 72 sec) 7) Aloha 9 - 13 - 43 - 44 - 45 - (51) - (60) = 154 (#1-5 spread = 50.2 sec) 8) Glencoe 12 - 14 - 37 - 59 - 68 - (77) - (80) = 190 (#1-5 spread = 86.5 sec) 9) Forest Grove 2 - 32 - 46 - 50 - 63 - (65) - (75) = 193 (#1-5 spread = 134.8 sec) 10) Reynolds 3 - 52 - 54 - 62 - 67 - (73) - (81) = 238 (#1-5 spread = 131 sec) 11) South Salem 29 - 47 - 56 - 64 - 78 - (83) - (84) = 274 (#1-5 spread = 87 sec) 12) West Salem 48 - 57 - 70 - 71 - 76 - (79) - (82) = 322 (#1-5 spread = 65 sec) Course adjustments applied this year: CVC +21.7 Metro +29.5 MHC +8.2 Pac +12.0 SWC +38.8 TRL -5.8 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.