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Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2013 Boys 6A Projections

1 	1 	Kyle Thompson 	15:25.7 	12 	Central Catholic
2 	2 	Geremia Lizier-Zmudzinski 	15:30 	12 	Forest Grove
3 	3 	Ahmed Ibrahim 	15:38.7 	12 	Reynolds
4 	-- 	Ahmed Muhumed 	15:56.8 	9 	David Douglas
5 	4 	Reilly Bloomer 	15:58.8 	11 	South Eugene
6 	5 	TJ Wright 	16:05.8 	12 	Sheldon
7 	6 	Jackson Mestler 	16:06.8 	10 	Sheldon
8 	-- 	Ray Schireman 	16:08.8 	12 	North Medford
9 	7 	Roman Ollar 	16:09.5 	10 	West Linn
10 	-- 	Kenny Freeman 	16:14.8 	12 	Roseburg
11 	8 	Daniel Thompson 	16:16.3 	10 	Central Catholic
12 	9 	Devin Sellers 	16:17.5 	12 	Aloha
13 	10 	Sam Lomax 	16:20.1 	11 	Central Catholic
14 	-- 	Nic McDaniel 	16:20.4 	12 	McMinnville
15 	-- 	Sam Remington 	16:20.6 	12 	Jesuit
16 	-- 	Sahil Doshi 	16:22.2 	12 	Jesuit
17 	-- 	Nathaniel Roberts 	16:22.7 	12 	Sprague
18 	11 	Grayson Ollar 	16:23.5 	10 	West Linn
19 	-- 	Matthew Lovos 	16:25.6 	11 	Tualatin
20 	12 	Mason Rouches 	16:27.2 	12 	Glencoe
21 	13 	Glapougbae Garmondeh 	16:27.7 	12 	Aloha
22 	-- 	Austin Sanders 	16:27.8 	12 	Crater
23 	14 	Abe Teklu 	16:29.1 	12 	Glencoe
24 	15 	Gunnar Vik 	16:29.5 	11 	Central Catholic
25 	16 	Henry Houghton 	16:29.7 	11 	Grant
26 	-- 	Al Lacey 	16:32.0 	12 	Oregon City
27 	-- 	Leo Lukens 	16:32.6 	10 	Lakeridge
28 	17 	Sam Truax 	16:32.8 	11 	Central Catholic
29 	18 	Ben Harter 	16:32.8 	12 	Sheldon
30 	-- 	Ben Rodriguez 	16:34.8 	12 	Roseburg
31 	19 	Liam Burke 	16:36.2 	12 	Lincoln
32 	20 	Eli Boudouris 	16:36.4 	11 	Grant
33 	(21) 	Dante Dalla Gasperina 	16:36.7 	12 	Central Catholic
34 	-- 	Thomas Morrell III 	16:37.0 	11 	Centennial
35 	(22) 	Zack Lavier 	16:38.1 	10 	Central Catholic
36 	23 	Conor Egan 	16:38.8 	10 	West Linn
37 	24 	Ronald Graham 	16:39.3 	11 	Lincoln
38 	-- 	Steven Cranston 	16:39.3 	10 	Canby
39 	-- 	Maneet Khaira 	16:39.7 	11 	Sunset
40 	25 	Tristan Carpenter 	16:42.8 	11 	Sheldon
41 	-- 	Max Hite 	16:43.5 	10 	Jesuit
42 	-- 	Noah Belcik 	16:44.5 	10 	Lakeridge
43 	26 	Jackson Cole 	16:45.0 	12 	Grant
44 	27 	Andrew McCullough 	16:48.8 	12 	South Eugene
45 	28 	Henry Fowler 	16:49.8 	12 	Sheldon
46 	29 	Sam Ruck 	16:51.7 	12 	South Salem
47 	30 	Gabe Collins 	16:51.9 	12 	Lincoln
48 	31 	Michael Martin 	16:52.8 	10 	South Eugene
49 	32 	Seth Berdahl 	16:53.8 	11 	Forest Grove
50 	33 	Ransom Gravatt 	16:58.5 	10 	Lincoln
51 	34 	Mason Wegener 	16:58.8 	10 	South Eugene
52 	35 	Coby Eastwood 	16:58.9 	12 	Lincoln
53 	(36) 	Jenner Higgins 	16:59.8 	9 	Sheldon
54 	37 	Miles Rouches 	17:00.2 	12 	Glencoe
55 	(38) 	Jacob Shelton 	17:00.8 	10 	Sheldon
56 	-- 	John Caufield 	17:01.6 	11 	Tigard
57 	39 	Jacob Silberger-Franek 	17:02.5 	12 	Grant
58 	40 	George Grenham 	17:03.1 	12 	Grant
59 	(41) 	Gabe Kearns 	17:03.6 	12 	Grant
60 	-- 	Lalo Uribe 	17:03.9 	12 	Centennial
61 	-- 	Trey Hargrove 	17:05.7 	12 	McKay
62 	42 	Jacob Evans 	17:05.8 	11 	West Linn
63 	43 	Brent Marsonette 	17:05.9 	12 	Aloha
64 	44 	Luis Torres 	17:07.4 	10 	Aloha
65 	45 	Daniel Rodriguez 	17:07.7 	12 	Aloha
66 	-- 	Mark French 	17:08.1 	10 	Tualatin
67 	46 	Murimi Nyamu 	17:09.1 	10 	Forest Grove
68 	47 	Miles Berglund 	17:09.7 	12 	South Salem
69 	48 	Darby Estes 	17:09.7 	11 	West Salem
70 	49 	Henry West 	17:10.8 	12 	South Eugene
71 	50 	Archer Morgan 	17:11.4 	11 	Forest Grove
72 	-- 	Abdul Ahmed 	17:11.7 	11 	David Douglas
73 	(51) 	Joel Kramer 	17:12.1 	12 	Aloha
74 	52 	Muhumed Noor 	17:13.3 	12 	Reynolds
75 	(53) 	Jack Walker 	17:20.7 	12 	Grant
76 	-- 	John Mendrin 	17:20.7 	10 	North Salem
77 	54 	Santos Damian 	17:24.7 	12 	Reynolds
78 	(55) 	CJ Cling 	17:28.8 	12 	South Eugene
79 	56 	John Patterson 	17:30.7 	11 	South Salem
80 	57 	Hunter Mosman 	17:31.7 	10 	West Salem
81 	58 	Michael Sullivan 	17:32.4 	12 	West Linn
82 	-- 	Riley Hankins 	17:32.7 	12 	Sprague
83 	59 	Landon Apeland 	17:33.4 	11 	Glencoe
84 	(60) 	Glapoujay Garmondeh 	17:34.0 	12 	Aloha
85 	(61) 	Jacob Cytrynbaum 	17:36.8 	12 	South Eugene
86 	62 	Johnathan Coleman 	17:41.6 	11 	Reynolds
87 	63 	Aaron Orr 	17:44.8 	12 	Forest Grove
88 	64 	Nate Van Ginkle 	17:46.7 	12 	South Salem
89 	(65) 	Duncan Stewart 	17:47.0 	11 	Forest Grove
90 	(66) 	Teddy Kortenhof 	17:49.4 	12 	Lincoln
91 	67 	Grant Turner 	17:49.7 	12 	Reynolds
92 	68 	Brian Gerig 	17:53.7 	11 	Glencoe
93 	(69) 	Carson Cohn 	17:55.0 	9 	Lincoln
94 	70 	Noah Vaughn 	17:57.7 	11 	West Salem
95 	71 	Hunter Schiess 	17:58.7 	9 	West Salem
96 	(72) 	Michael Katancik 	18:00.0 	12 	West Linn
97 	(73) 	Jeremy Hodges 	18:04.2 	12 	Reynolds
98 	(74) 	John Goetze 	18:05.8 	12 	West Linn
99 	(75) 	Everett Fellger 	18:07.5 	12 	Forest Grove
100 	76 	Cooper Frantz-Geddes 	18:14.7 	10 	West Salem
101 	(77) 	Taylor England 	18:16.6 	11 	Glencoe
102 	78 	Andrew Colburn 	18:18.7 	11 	South Salem
103 	(79) 	Reed Smith 	18:37.7 	10 	West Salem
104 	(80) 	Jake Howell 	18:40.2 	9 	Glencoe
105 	(81) 	Cole Andresen 	18:45.7 	11 	Reynolds
106 	(82) 	Jaken Garcia 	18:49.7 	11 	West Salem
107 	(83) 	Keaton Nash 	19:21.7 	9 	South Salem
108 	(84) 	Ian Nile 	19:24.7 	11 	South Salem

1) Central Catholic 1 - 8 - 10 - 15 - 17 - (21) - (22) = 51  (#1-5 spread = 67.1 sec)
2) Sheldon 5 - 6 - 18 - 25 - 28 - (36) - (38) = 82  (#1-5 spread = 44 sec)
3) Grant 16 - 20 - 26 - 39 - 40 - (41) - (53) = 141   (#1-5 spread = 33.4 sec)
4) Lincoln 19 - 24 - 30 - 33 - 35 - (66) - (69) = 141   (#1-5 spread = 22.7 sec)
5) West Linn 7 - 11 - 23 - 42 - 58 - (72) - (74) = 141   (#1-5 spread = 82.9 sec)
6) South Eugene	 4 - 27 - 31 - 34 - 49 - (55) - (61) = 145   (#1-5 spread = 72 sec)
7) Aloha 9 - 13 - 43 - 44 - 45 - (51) - (60) = 154  (#1-5 spread = 50.2 sec)
8) Glencoe 12 - 14 - 37 - 59 - 68 - (77) - (80) = 190   (#1-5 spread = 86.5 sec)
9) Forest Grove 2 - 32 - 46 - 50 - 63 - (65) - (75) = 193   (#1-5 spread = 134.8 sec)
10) Reynolds 3 - 52 - 54 - 62 - 67 - (73) - (81) = 238   (#1-5 spread = 131 sec)
11) South Salem 29 - 47 - 56 - 64 - 78 - (83) - (84) = 274   (#1-5 spread = 87 sec)
12) West Salem 48 - 57 - 70 - 71 - 76 - (79) - (82) = 322   (#1-5 spread = 65 sec)

Course adjustments applied this year:
CVC +21.7
Metro +29.5
MHC +8.2
Pac +12.0
SWC +38.8
TRL -5.8

The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top
runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied
as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at
sub-maximal efforts.  I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top
few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be
faster, some will be slower, so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to
take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in
the thick of the pack.  The focus is on average team placement moreso than
individuals.  A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets
or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of
bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key
to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the
various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying
individuals to compare respective courses.  This is often complicated by the
over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one
meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for
less consistent comparisons.