Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2006 Boys 6A Projections Score League State Adj 1 C. Catholic Taylor Morgan (11) 16:24 15:51 15:35 2 Franklin Bryce Burgess (11) 15:42 16:09 15:40 3 Jesuit Brian Manning (11) 15:53 16:05 15:53 4 C. Catholic Samot Turina (10) 16:40 16:07 15:55 5 Canby Sean Coleman (12) 15:56 16:10 16:00 6 Lincoln Matt Parker (12) 15:47 16:14 16:02 -- Hood River Leo Castillo (11) 16:36 16:03 7 Jesuit Sam Larson (12) 15:56 16:08 8 Lincoln Joseph Carpenter (12) 15:53 16:20 16:10 9 Forest Grove Josh Seitz (12) 16:10 16:24 16:12 10 C. Catholic Luke Wiltshire (12) 16:47 16:14 11 Jesuit Tim Kessler (11) 16:03 16:15 12 Canby Josh Raines (12) 16:20 16:34 16:15 13 N. Medford Josh Paul (11) 16:28 16:18 14 Jesuit Peter Maag (11) 16:07 16:19 -- Lake Oswego Riley Werner (12) 16:06 16:26 16:20 15 Lakeridge Dave Marks (11) 16:06 16:26 16:20 -- Oregon City Jacob Goertz (11) 16:15 16:35 16:25 16 S. Eugene Gino Gaddini (12) 16:35 16:25 17 C. Catholic Zach Marx (11) 16:59 16:26 18 Beaverton Paul Fowler (12) 15:58 16:28 19 Lincoln Nathan Mathabane (10) 16:13 16:40 16:30 -- Aloha Jason Waldram (10) 16:14 16:44 16:30 -- Grant Nathan Knutson (11) 16:06 16:33 20 C. Catholic Sam Wotipka (12) 17:06 16:33 -- Sprague Forrest Jarvi (11) 16:47 16:35 -- Redmond Ian Henderson (12) 17:04 16:36 21 Clackamas Grant Eldridge (11) 16:18 16:38 22 Reynolds Daniel Vo (11) 17:11 16:38 23 Reynolds Karim Shakalia (12) 17:12 16:39 24 S. Eugene Ryan Graebner (11) 16:49 16:39 -- Centennial Michael DeTienne (11) 17:13 16:40 -- Wilson Greg Lindstrom (12) 16:35 17:02 16:40 25 C. Catholic Nick Turner (12) 17:14 16:41 26 Clackamas John Paden (9) 16:21 16:41 -- N. Salem Michael Herrmann (11) 17:25 16:41 27 Lincoln Aaron Anderson (12) 16:15 16:42 28 Clackamas Will Gordon (12) 16:23 16:43 29 Jesuit Lucas Rothenberger (11) 16:32 16:44 -- David Douglas Tim Roady (12) 17:18 16:45 -- Westview Alex Emberlin (10) 16:16 16:46 30 N. Medford Garrett Frierson (12) 16:56 16:46 31 C. Catholic Kevin O'Malley (12) 17:20 16:47 32 S. Eugene Walker Augustyniak (11) 16:57 16:47 -- Lake Oswego Elijah Greer (10) 16:27 16:47 33 Jesuit Jake Gardner (11) 16:37 16:49 34 Canby Austin Fricker (11) 16:36 16:50 -- David Douglas Luke Correll (12) 17:25 16:52 -- Benson Roba Abuna (12) 16:46 17:13 16:52 -- Sheldon Jared Herr (12) 17:02 16:52 -- Newberg Santana Alvarez (10) 16:39 16:53 35 Canby Nick Petshow (11) 16:39 16:53 36 S. Eugene Zach Schneider-Lynch (11) 16:53 37 N. Medford Darrell Terry (12) 17:04 16:54 38 Lincoln Adrian Unkeles (10) 16:28 16:55 39 Beaverton Vincent Kirse (11) 16:25 16:55 40 N. Medford Richard Zhu (11) 17:05 16:55 -- Grants Pass Alex Stowell (12) 17:05 16:55 -- Tigard Nick Lennartz (12) 16:41 16:55 -- S. Medford Joey Nelson (11) 17:06 16:56 41 W. Salem Matt Dakopolas (12) 17:43 16:57 42 N. Medford Drew Jordan (9) 17:08 16:58 -- Sunset Ryan Kavanaugh (10) 16:28 16:58 43 W. Salem JJ Campbell (9) 17:23 16:59 -- Putnam Ricky Garcia (10) 16:39 16:59 44 Clackamas Jeff Hopkins (10) 16:40 17:00 45 McKay Thomas Goodwin (9) 18:51 17:00 -- Grants Pass Dusty Parrish (12) 17:10 17:00 46 Forest Grove Justin Marble (12) 16:47 17:01 -- Aloha Brad Ackerson (12) 16:31 17:01 47 W. Salem Jon Snyder (11) 17:22 17:02 48 Lakeridge Alex Anderson (10) 16:42 17:02 49 Canby Michael Theis (12) 16:51 17:05 50 W. Salem Myles Wittman (11) 17:38 17:05 51 W. Salem Tyler Dudley (11) 17:31 17:05 -- Tualatin Timothy Plunkett (10) 16:52 17:06 52 N. Medford Rick Nielsen (12) 17:16 17:06 53 S. Eugene Colin Tracey (12) 17:17 17:07 -- Newberg Clint Cardwell (11) 16:53 17:07 54 Lincoln Mark Hall (12) 16:41 17:08 55 Forest Grove Nick Wallace (11) 16:54 17:08 56 Beaverton Tom Semph (12) 16:38 17:08 57 S. Eugene Eamonn Kerr-Daly (10) 17:19 17:09 58 Lakeridge Cole Flora (11) 16:50 17:10 59 Jesuit John Carley (12) 16:58 17:10 60 Lakeridge Andrew Balter (12) 16:51 17:11 61 Reynolds Brad Boulton (12) 17:47 17:14 62 Forest Grove Eric Weinbender (11) 17:00 17:14 -- S. Salem Cody Hughes (10) 17:44 17:15 63 Lincoln Bjorn Kjellstrand (10) 16:51 17:18 64 Forest Grove Chris Paterson (12) 17:05 17:19 65 McKay Devin White (10) 17:39 17:19 66 Beaverton Kyle Schytz (12) 16:51 17:21 67 Reynolds Austin Martin (11) 17:56 17:23 68 Clackamas Matt Hutchinson (12) 17:04 17:24 69 McKay Zach Jabin (11) 17:34 17:25 70 Franklin Charlie Hutchens (10) 16:58 17:25 71 Beaverton Andrew Hair (10) 16:56 17:26 72 McKay Leo Reyes (11) 18:23 17:28 73 W. Salem Aron Curzon (12) 18:00 17:30 74 Forest Grove Dusty Klein (11) 17:18 17:32 75 Lakeridge Rishi Rikhi (11) 17:13 17:33 76 N. Medford Josh Blesse (12) 17:44 17:34 -- Wilson Vince Corson (11) 17:08 17:35 77 W. Salem Sam Shryock (12) 17:18 17:41 78 Beaverton Marcus Himelhoch (11) 17:13 17:43 79 Reynolds Kevin Wooley (9) 18:16 17:43 80 Franklin Kevin Smith (11) 17:16 17:43 81 Canby Chris Zebede (11) 17:29 17:43 82 S. Eugene Sammy Kirtner (10) 17:54 17:44 83 Reynolds Bobby Ellis (11) 18:18 17:45 84 Beaverton Maneesh Arora (11) 17:17 17:47 85 Franklin Jake Caplener (11) 17:20 17:47 86 Clackamas Gabe Garza (10) 17:30 17:50 87 Forest Grove Andy Jerrett (11) 17:39 17:53 88 Franklin Nathaniel Kielholtz (11)17:27 17:54 89 Reynolds Ryan Lane (11) 18:39 18:06 90 Canby Clayton Pugsley (12) 18:00 18:14 91 McKay Alex Klawhun (12) 18:51 18:24 92 Clackamas Austin Gladney (12) 17:59 18:24 93 Franklin Lucas Van Meter (11) 18:09 18:36 94 Franklin Casey Usselman (11) 18:15 18:42 95 McKay Nick Rhein (10) 20:08 19:00 96 Lakeridge Scott Marek (11) 18:40 19:00 97 McKay Austin Klawhun (12) 19:36 19:03 98 Lakeridge Robbie Magill (9) 19:06 19:26 1) C. Catholic (52) 1-4-10-17-20-25-31 2) Jesuit (64) 3-7-11-14-29-33-59 3) Lincoln (98) 6-8-19-27-38-54-63 4) Canby (135) 5-12-34-35-49-81-90 5) S. Eugene (161) 16-24-32-36-53-57-82 6) N. Medford (162) 13-30-37-40-42-52-76 7) Clackamas (187) 21-26-28-44-68-86-92 8) W. Salem (232) 41-43-47-50-51-73-77 9) Forest Grove (236) 9-46-55-62-64-74-87 10) Beaverton (250) 18-39-56-66-71-78-84 11) Reynolds (252) 22-23-61-67-79-83-89 12) Lakeridge (256) 15-48-58-60-75-96-98 13) Franklin (325) 2-70-80-85-88-93-94 14) McKay (342) 45-65-69-72-91-95-97 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack, but for the most part, results tracked pretty well from one meet to the next for teams and individuals. The key was coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Danner, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. The Central Valley meet was by far the most difficult to make sense of, due to the weather conditions which affected people to widely varying degrees. In the end, I chose to go with standardized Danner/adidas times for consistency. Lakeridge's adjustment is based purely on Clackamas', as Lakeridge was absent from too many of the key invites for consistent comparisons.
