Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2005 Boys 4A Projections League State Adj Score 1 Kenny Klotz (12) C. Catholic 15:46 15:56 15:24 1 2 Isaac Stoutenburgh (12) Crater 16:25 16:35 15:25 - 3 Jerhoemee Murray (12) Century 15:45 16:10 15:40 - 4 Mat Cravens (12) Franklin 15:49 15:44 2 5 Dylan Coleman Summit 15:51 16:16 15:50 3 6 Jakob Keyser (11) Crater 16:24 16:34 15:50 - 7 Eric Lynch (12) South Eugene 16:16 16:16 16:00 4 8 Eddie James (12) Marshall 16:06 16:01 - 9 Ricky Mendez (12) McKay 16:01 16:22 16:05 - 10 Ben Frisbee Lake Oswego 16:04 16:09 - 11 Eric Zeuthen (12) Westview 16:01 16:26 16:10 - 12 Bryce Burgess (10) Franklin 16:16 16:11 5 13 Taylor Morgan (10) C. Catholic 16:03 16:13 6 14 Luke Wiltshire (11) C. Catholic 16:04 16:14 7 15 Walter Juarez Hermiston 16:09 16:34 16:15 8 16 Rob Maletis (12) Jesuit 16:04 16:29 16:16 9 17 Nick Turner (11) C. Catholic 16:06 16:16 10 18 Jim Bethune (12) Grant 16:21 16:16 11 19 Ryan Waite St. Helens 16:44 16:49 16:19 12 20 Nathan Endicott (12) Thurston 16:19 16:19 13 21 Sean Coleman (11) Canby 16:22 16:27 16:20 14 22 Kevin Elder St. Helens 16:15 16:20 15 23 Nathan Knutson (10) Grant 16:27 16:22 16 24 Joseph Carpenter (11) Lincoln 16:28 16:23 - 25 Ryan Erickson (12) Churchill 16:24 16:24 - 26 Cam Eberhart (12) West Albany 16:04 16:25 - 27 Brandon Snook Oregon City 16:25 16:30 - 28 Mack Leckband Summit 16:06 16:31 17 29 Ryan Beaver (12) Gresham 16:21 16:31 - 30 Leo Castillo Hood River 16:07 16:32 - 31 Chase Kaufman (11) Centennial 16:22 16:32 18 32 Tim Roady (11) David Douglas 16:23 16:33 - 33 Karl Dickman Summit 16:10 16:35 19 34 Corey Heppner (12) Grant 16:40 16:35 20 35 Lukas Fenley (11) Thurston 16:35 16:35 21 36 Scott Ward Clackamas 16:30 16:35 22 37 Chris Reed (11) Klamath Union 16:36 16:36 - 38 Samot Turina (9) C. Catholic 16:26 16:36 23 39 Andre Halabi(12) West Salem 16:15 16:36 - 40 Krieg Mueller Hermiston 16:12 16:37 24 41 Sean Kovensky (12) South Eugene 16:37 16:37 25 42 Cody Fairbanks (12) Hillsboro 16:12 16:37 - 43 Justin Dean Hermiston 16:13 16:38 26 44 Lane Johnson (12) Tualatin 16:33 16:38 - 45 Jared Bassett (10) Marshfield 16:39 16:39 - 46 Josiah Johnstone (12) McMinnville 16:36 16:41 - 47 Austin Knutson (12) Grant 16:49 16:44 27 48 Brian Saxe St. Helens 16:40 16:45 28 49 George Tkebuchava (12) Centennial 16:36 16:46 29 50 Brookman Holmes (12) Crescent Valley 16:25 16:46 30 51 Dan Alvarez (12) Newberg 16:41 16:46 - 52 Forrest Jarvi (10) Sprague 16:26 16:47 - 53 Josh Raines (11) Canby 16:42 16:47 31 54 Brian Manning (10) Jesuit 16:23 16:48 32 55 Justin Karr (11) Tigard 16:43 16:48 - 56 Sam Wotipka (11) C. Catholic 16:39 16:49 33 57 Spencer Bonney (12) Ashland 16:39 16:49 34 58 Sam Larson (11) Jesuit 16:26 16:51 35 59 Matt Smith (12) Jesuit 16:26 16:51 36 60 Travis Isaacs Clackamas 16:48 16:53 37 61 Dan Landrum (12) Klamath Union 16:44 16:54 - 62 Peter Maag (10) Jesuit 16:29 16:54 38 63 Jeremy Liebman Clackamas 16:49 16:54 39 64 Michael Weller (12) Corvallis 16:33 16:54 - 65 Brad Bauer (11) Thurston 16:55 16:55 40 66 Eric Kirch (12) Tigard 16:50 16:55 - 67 Kyle Burnham (12) Beaverton 16:30 16:55 41 68 Kevin O'Malley (11) C. Catholic 16:47 16:57 42 69 Michael Herrmann (10) North Salem 16:36 16:57 43 70 Tosch Roy Summit 16:34 16:59 44 71 Cameron Barleen (12) Ashland 16:49 16:59 45 72 Garrett Frierson (11) North Medford 16:51 17:01 46 73 Ryan Petersen (11) Thurston 17:02 17:02 47 74 Curtis Griff St. Helens 16:57 17:02 48 75 Kersee Lind Hermiston 16:38 17:03 49 76 Eddie Niedermeyer (12) Jesuit 16:38 17:03 50 77 Matt Miner (10) Ashland 16:53 17:03 51 78 Jesse Davis Clackamas 17:00 17:05 52 79 Rick Nielson (11) North Medford 16:57 17:07 53 80 Austin Fricker (10) Canby 17:02 17:07 54 81 Josh Seitz (11) Forest Grove 17:02 17:07 55 82 Colin Tracey (11) South Eugene 17:08 17:08 56 83 Eamonn Kerr-Daly (9) South Eugene 17:09 17:09 57 84 Kyle Saxe St. Helens 17:04 17:09 58 85 Justin Marble (11) Forest Grove 17:05 17:10 59 86 Will Gordon Clackamas 17:06 17:11 60 87 Daniel Rooker (10) Forest Grove 17:07 17:12 61 88 John O'Hollerin Summit 16:48 17:13 62 89 Aaron Cody (12) Beaverton 16:49 17:14 63 90 Eric Weinbender (10) Forest Grove 17:11 17:16 64 91 Louis Bodin (12) South Eugene 17:18 17:18 65 92 Ryan Graebner (10) South Eugene 17:19 17:19 66 93 John Arnold (12) Crescent Valley 16:58 17:19 67 94 Dusty Klein (10) Forest Grove 17:14 17:19 68 95 Gatlin Neuman Summit 16:55 17:20 69 96 John Ngo Hermiston 16:56 17:21 70 97 Micah Depper Summit 16:57 17:22 71 98 Mike DeTienne (10) Centennial 17:12 17:23 72 99 Michael Heppner (12) Grant 17:28 17:23 73 100 Mark Bozarth-Dreher (10)Crescent Valley 17:02 17:23 74 101 Jake Caplener (10) Franklin 17:29 17:24 75 102 Nick Petshow (10) Canby 17:19 17:24 76 103 Brayden Moore (12) Crescent Valley 17:04 17:25 77 104 John Harris (12) Ashland 17:16 17:26 78 105 Dennis McCaffrey (12) Ashland 17:17 17:27 79 106 Skylar Evans (10) Franklin 17:32 17:27 80 107 Luke Rothenberger (10) Jesuit 17:03 17:28 81 108 Nick Orvis St. Helens 17:23 17:28 82 109 Grant Eldridge Clackamas 17:25 17:30 83 110 Michael Theis (11) Canby 17:25 17:30 84 111 Richard Zhu (10) North Medford 17:21 17:31 85 112 Alex Evans (12) Franklin 17:36 17:31 86 113 Darrell Terry (11) North Medford 17:22 17:32 87 114 Javier Montes Hermiston 17:10 17:35 88 115 Josh Blesse (11) North Medford 17:25 17:35 89 116 Sam Curtis (12) North Medford 17:26 17:36 90 117 Dan Oakey (11) Centennial 17:26 17:36 91 118 Jeremiah Costalez (12) North Salem 17:16 17:37 92 119 Tanner Arndt (10) Ashland 17:28 17:38 93 120 Vincent Kirse (10) Beaverton 17:15 17:40 94 121 Ben Zarov (12) Grant 17:46 17:41 95 122 Matthew Hutchinson Clackamas 17:37 17:42 96 123 Kevin Cook (11) Ashland 17:33 17:43 97 124 Matt Blackmore (12) Centennial 17:33 17:43 98 125 Jonathan Lanning (11) Thurston 17:45 17:45 99 126 Josh Miller (11) Centennial 17:35 17:45 100 127 David Leyva (12) North Medford 17:36 17:46 101 128 Max Bruch (12) Crescent Valley 17:26 17:47 102 129 Neal Lloyd Hermiston 17:25 17:50 103 130 Nick Wallace (10) Forest Grove 17:47 17:52 104 131 N. Keilholtz (10) Franklin 17:59 17:54 105 132 Kyle Schytz (11) Beaverton 17:29 17:54 106 133 Jared Torassa (12) North Salem 17:34 17:55 107 134 Brice Plouse (11) Thurston 17:58 17:58 108 135 Ben Gelles (11) Grant 18:04 17:59 109 136 Maneesh Arora (10) Beaverton 17:35 18:00 110 137 JC Martin (12) Crescent Valley 17:42 18:03 111 138 Eric Manley (12) Franklin 18:15 18:05 112 139 Marcus Himmelhoch (10) Beaverton 17:42 18:07 113 140 David Jones (11) Thurston 18:08 18:08 114 141 Kurt Juengling (12) North Salem 17:48 18:09 115 142 Michael Stogsdill (10) Canby 18:09 18:14 116 143 Jared Stephens (10) Centennial 18:05 18:15 117 144 Brian Youngern (9) North Salem 18:00 18:21 118 145 Nick Berry (12) Forest Grove 18:16 18:21 119 146 Travis Preciado (12) Canby 18:19 18:24 120 147 Brandon Taft (10) Beaverton 18:08 18:33 121 148 Isaac Otto (12) Crescent Valley 18:15 18:36 122 149 Walker Augustyniak (10) South Eugene 18:59 18:59 123 150 Ben Krause St. Helens 19:05 19:10 124 151 Alex Beeken (11) North Salem 18:51 19:12 125 152 Cody Henderson (11) North Salem 19:36 19:47 126 1. (47) Central Catholic - 1 - 6 - 7 - 10 - 23 - 33 - 42 (#1 ranked) 2. (145) Summit - 3 - 17 - 19 - 44 - 62 - 69 - 71 (#3 ranked) 3. (147) Grant - 11 - 16 - 20 - 27 - 73 - 95 - 109 (#6 ranked) 4. (150) Jesuit - 9 - 32 - 35 - 36 - 38 - 50 - 81 (#2 ranked) 5. (161) St. Helens - 12 - 15 - 28 - 48 - 58 - 82 - 124 (#5 ranked) 6. (177) Hermiston - 8 - 24 - 26 - 49 - 70 - 88 - 103 (#4 ranked) 7. (207) South Eugene - 4 - 25 - 56 - 57 - 65 - 66 - 123 (#7 ranked) 8. (210) Clackamas - 22 - 37 - 39 - 52 - 60 - 83 - 96 (#9 ranked) 9. (220) Thurston - 13 - 21 - 40 - 47 - 99 - 108 - 114 (#8 ranked) 10. (248) Franklin - 2 - 5 - 75 - 80 - 86 - 105 - 112 (#10 ranked) 11. (259) Canby - 14 - 31 - 54 - 76 - 84 - 116 - 120 (#11t ranked) 12. (287) Ashland - 34 - 45 - 51 - 78 - 79 - 93 - 97 (#11t ranked) 13. (307) Forest Grove - 55 - 59 - 61 - 64 - 68 - 104 - 119 (#14t ranked) 14. (308) Centennial - 18 - 29 - 72 - 91 - 98 - 100 - 117 15. (350) Crescent Valley - 30 - 67 - 74 - 77 - 102 - 111 - 122 16. (360) North Medford - 46 - 53 - 85 - 87 - 89 - 90 - 101 (#14t ranked) 17. (414) Beaverton - 41 - 63 - 94 - 106 - 110 - 113 - 121 18. (475) North Salem - 43 - 92 - 107 - 115 - 118 - 125 - 126 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack, but for the most part, results tracked pretty well from one meet to the next for teams and individuals. The key was coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Danner, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. Like with the Girls list, the IMC and SOC league results were the most difficult to project. I suspect Hermiston will finish a bit higher than the #6 they're projected at above, but there's no guarantee they'll be healthier or less fatigued from travel at State. Grant and Franklin may well finish worse than projected, as their league times were adjusted down, as opposed to the girls' PIL times which were adjusted up. Just an oddity of course comparisons.