Run-Down Forums

[USGOLD2004]

Just for laughs.

Who do you think has the best chance of breaking 9.78s in the 100m. Greene and Crawford (coaches too) say they can do it. But who do you think can break the record? And also put your finger on a time that no one can beat. Also do this for the 200m.

I don't like to say this, but if you prevails, I think Darrell Brown (19) could possibly do it, also Asafa Powell (21), also Gatlin has a pretty good chance at it. And I think a time of 9.6s is the break off point to a limit (10m split time of 0.75s). And for the 200m, Usain Bolt (almost 18) I think could possibly do it. And 19.2s is the break off point, limit to the 200m.

What do you all think?

Jason

[Kishan Gill]

Always an interssting topic to speculate.

The 19.2 break off point for 200m is omly because johnson ran 19.32, a time we would not have imagined for 50 yrs. Had he not run that time , a breakoff point of 19.4/19.5 would hve seemed more realistic.

As for 9.78. Is that time clean ? If it is, it is still intrinsically inferior to greenes 9.79, who at his best seemed to be able to run a 9.73/9.74 in ideal conditions.

Right now a sub 9.7 at altitude with agenerous trailing wind is possible by the likes of greene, powell or crawford.

Going back to 200m, i think johnson record could go unchallenged for decades, such was the improvement. Even at altitude it seems hard pressed for the best athlete of the day to challenge it, unless he does a flo-jo and gets way with it .

It,s a shame that drugs have to be factored in to any debate, such is the state of affairs.

[USGOLD2004]

I have my sights on Darrel Brown, to be the difference maker in the 100m, and Usain Bolt in the 200m. I think that if they stay healthy, they could be the next superstars, and perhaps lower the WR even further.

Jason

[Dan]

History would indicate they won't be the ones to do it. Rarely do the top youth go on to be the top seniors, no matter how dominant they are at an early age.

Dan
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[USGOLD2004]

Yes, I have noticed that, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

I have just found something quite interesting, and it causes a lot of debate.

Check this out:

http://condellpark.com/kd/sprintlogistic.htm

Anyone interested inthe future of the sport, read this.

Jason

[Dan]

[USGOLD2004]

There is one trend however, and that is it decrease by .01/.02 second increments and once .04/.05, but nonetheless a decrease in time, even though not that significant.

"Montgomery has become world record holder by improving the mark by barely 1 part in 1000."

It is quite interesting that they put a limit at 9.48s in 250 years.

[Dan]

There were 0.01's and 0.02's right from the start (of auto timing), so there's absolutely no statistical significance to the trend. You can't base a long term projection off baseline data that meaningless. Just doesn't work.

That's the same sort of thinking that told us 50-60 years ago that a sub-4 mile was physically impossible... Flawed Data = Flawed Theory.

Dan
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[USGOLD2004]

Then I guess you can't put a theory on human achievement.

But to twist this a little, here is a table that people should really count:

Corrected
Time
Name Venue Date Raw Time Wind

9.80 Maurice Greene Athêna 1999-06-16 9.79 0.1
9.81 Maurice Greene Sevilla 1999-08-22 9.8 0.2
9.83 Maurice Greene Edmonton 2001-08-05 9.82 -0.2
9.84 Ato Boldon Athêna 1998-06-17 9.86 -0.4
9.85 Maurice Greene Berlin 2000-09-01 9.86 -0.2
9.85 Bruny Surin Sevilla 1999-08-22 9.84 0.2
9.85 Johnson Ben Seoul 1988-09-24 9.79 1.1
9.85 Maurice Greene Sydney 2000-09-23 9.87 -0.3
9.86 Frank Fredericks Lausanne 1996-07-03 9.86 -0.4
9.86 Tim Montgomery Edmonton 2001-08-05 9.85 -0.2
9.87 Ato Boldon Athêna 1999-06-16 9.86 0.1
9.88 Maurice Greene Athêna 1997-08-03 9.86 0.2
9.88 Ato Boldon Kuala Lumpur 1998-09-17 9.88 -0.1
9.89 Tim Montgomery Paris 2002-09-14 9.78 2
9.89 Maurice Greene Osaka 2000-05-13 9.91 -0.4
9.89 Johnson Ben Seoul 1987-08-30 9.83 1
9.89 Donovan Bailey Atlanta 1996-07-27 9.84 0.7
9.89 Donovan Bailey Abbotsford 1997-07-19 10.03 -2.1
9.89 Leroy Burrell Barcelona 1992-08-01 9.97 -1.3
9.89 Calvin Smith Bruxelles 1983-08-26 10.04 -2.2

[Dan]

Makes that Seville race between Maurice and Bruny look like one of the best ever.

Dan
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[Kishan Gill]

I recall watching smiths 10.04 in brussells in 1983 into a 2.2 (i recall it as --2.96).
It was reported the next day that there was a swirling wind the in the stadium, whether that means the benefits cancelled out the disadvantages can be answered by a statistican and weather expert who was present on the day.

What your lists show is that statistics are an imprecise science due to the many variables involved, chiefly wind and altitude and also track conditions, temperature, etc etc.

The conclusion is that a world record performance is not an end in itself, the true measure of an athlete would be consistency of times over a long period combined with performances in major champs.

As for Brown and bolt, i agree with dan (this has been discussed before), teenage progidies tend to shine bright over a short span of time. If they can emulate and improve on their performances well into their twenties, they will be the exception, not the rule.

[Dan]

Even wind measurements are extremely imprecise, ignoring all the other factors that cannot be accounted for. Wind readings have been shown to differ significantly across the 8 lanes, yet the reading is only taken on the inside of the track.

Dan
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[Conway]

Personally I tend not to deal wth "adjusted" times for all the reasons mentioned ... Times are what they are .... All I want to know is if they are "legal" or not .... At the end of the day the only things that matter are legality of the time and head to head match ups ... Times don't run against each other ...
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Speed Thrills

[USGOLD2004]

The only way to get rid of those imperfections is to have them indoors, and that's not going to happen.

[Paul]

Dan is right about imperfections of wind readings across all 8 lanes. In fact, in big meets in Eugene, they will also take wind readings at the outside of lane 8, along with the standard one on the inside of the track.
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Paul

"Gaunt is Beautiful" Cassidy's T-shirt