Run-Down Forums

[Conway]

1. Greene
2. Montgomery
3. Chambers

4. Mark Lewis Francis
5. Bernard Williams
6. Kim Collins
7. Jon Drummond
8. Brian Lewis

Before I explain / defend my choices, let me say that I've watched a lot of tape over the past week and a half ... This year's major meets ... PRevious Worlds and Olys going back to '95 ... And looking back on 2002 I want to make the following notes:

Chambers made a quantum improvement this year ... He is a completely different sprinter than in the past ... And not just his times ... His demeanor, attitude, technique, everything ... He should be a medallist next year ....

Tim maintained his gains from 2001, which primarily seem to be a gain in strength ... Technically he is the same ... And while he got the WR at the start of the race, the start remains his greatest weakness - and reason for his up/down results ...

Mo was not Mo in 2002 ... And not just the times ... Comparing Mo physically to himself of previous years, the tone is no where near what it has been ... Truly indicating a greatly reduced level of fitness in 2002 ..

Bernard seemed to have lost all of the gains he enjoyed while a member of HSI ... Lots of technical flaws this year ...

So I say all that to say ---

Mo should be back and angry next season which is why I rate him #1 next year ...

Tim has just too much talent NOT to consider him a true threat for gold ... Consistency in his start and his mental stability will tell a lot ...

Chambers is just a step off of those two and any flaws by either means an increased medal for Dwain ...

MLF will be one of two wild cards next year ... When healthy last year he showed flashes of brilliance ... Should have a sub 10.00 as we speak if not for injury in my opinion ... Is growing, and getting better by the day ... And relaxes the best of the top crew ... Necessary in big time competition ...

Williams, Collins and Drummond I put in the same class ... Williams has the most talent but may not realize it under Dennis Mitchell ... Drummond is techincally solid (almost too much so) ... Collins is not a favorite of mine but seems to get it done ...

Lewis is my second wild card ... Went 9.99 early setting a PR but then had the injury ... Competes well when healthy and a good starter, which puts him in the thick of things in almost every ocmpetition he participates in ...

I didn't include Frankie cause I don't think Frankie will include himself ... I think he will focus on the 200 as it is the weakest of the 2 events right now and there he has the ability and experience to pull it off as long as he is healthy and rested (meaning few 100s) ...

Coby is just too inconsistent for me and his technique is attrocious ... He places high due to the mistakes of others and next year that will be greatly reduced ...

I agree about Gatlin and Capel also being more 200 oriented IF they compete ... And I don't know about Ato ... Could either be a top 4 OR head home early ... Question is whether or not he heads back to LA ... A full off season in LA and the top 3 becomes a top 4 ... So I leave him with a question mark at this point ...

Conway

[Conway]

Wanted to add a few things to the conversation ...

1) Was looking at legal sub 10's this year ... The leaders were:
7 - Montgomery
5 - Greene
4 - Chambers
My only point being that Aside from the losses Greene's season was as good as any one elses ... And folks should be wary of writing him off ...

2) Missing this year was Obadele Thompson ... Oba has as much "potential" as any one else ... If his reason for not being around was that he was getting healthy, then he could be the ultimate spoiler next year !!!

3) Every year SOMEONE breaks through ... And there are many talented youngsters out there with the potential to suddenly come out of no where !!! Primarily from the Carribean nations !!!!

Conway

[Dan]

I had kinda forgotten about Oby's absence, what with all the other absences on the circuit...

I'm by no means writing off Greene. I still consider him a co-favorite along with Tim and possibly Dwain. If he can regain fitness, then he's still the man to beat. However, I disagree that he rates at the top of the heap in any respect this year. He may be up there in terms of # of sub-10's, but the quality of them is pretty weak other than the 9.89. He was probably #1 through the first half of the season, but down around #3 or 4 for the second half. The only measure that he comes out ahead of Tim is head to head record, which I believe he took 4-3.

Dan

[Conway]

Oh, Tim gets #1 by virtue of his WR ... No doubt about it ... My point is that truly when you look at the season you ohave a top 3 of Greene and Montgomery and Chambers that is almost like rock/papers/scissors !!! That and Greene's season was better than most of the rest of the worlds AND while down by HIS standards, stil pretty decent ...

Conway

[Dan]

I would agree with that. The picture is clouded by the inconsistency -- either up and down performances or disappearing acts -- of just about everyone. So, each of them had stretches where they were #1, but overall, no one had a spectacular season...

Dan

[Conway]

And in reality that is how the 100 has been since about 1994 or so ... The only thing is that for about 5 years Mo was solid as a rock, and this year he joined the ranks of the inconsistent ...

Conway

[Justin]

A few comments on all the above debates.

Tim Montgomery did not false start in his WR race - he had a reaction time of 0.104, near perfect. Chambers' reaction was 0.140 and that 0.036 more than accounts for the distinct advantage Tim got at the start. It amounts to around a foot - more than enough for a noticeable visual difference.

Dwain Chambers' has always been a big man, the difference this year is his harnessing of that through better technique. Look back at the T&F list archives of a few years ago and you'll see me raving about how fast Chambers would be if only someone taught him how to sprint properly. He's is still only 24, he's only recently stopped growing and it takes several years to really bulk up to world-class-sprinter levels of musculature.

I think and hope that Mo will come back really strong next year. This year will have been a real kick for him. Whatever he says, he thought he could still win at 95% and he's been humilatingly proven wrong. Lost his WR, lost his aura, dubbed Slo Mo by the European press, that's got to hurt. I wonder if it's just the motivation he needs to push him still further, motivation which may otherwise have been lacking.

Next year I expect Chambers to get near to 9.80 but not to break it. I don't think Montgomery can go any faster at the moment - that was his perfect race. He will have to improve his power, there is no other room for improvement in his race. If his best is not behind him, Mo can take the record back - his 9.79, 9.80 and 9.82 were all run in much less than perfect conditions so he has potential to go faster (in theory).

As always there are half a dozen Americans who could either be world beaters or also-rans next year - JJ Johnson, Coby Miller, Bernard Williams, Shaun Crawford, Justin Gatlin, Brian Lewis. If only they'd time their training to be at their best in July and August rather than at the Texas Relays.

Kim Collins has gone up a level this year - was it 4 9.98s? Obikwelu still looks ready for big things and Obadele Thompson still has some potential to fulfil.

Finally, MLF remains the great young hope of world sprinting. I'm sad he didn't become the first teenager under 10.00 (Carl Lewis's 10.00 from 1981 remains the world age 19 best), but he'll do it next year if he can stay healthy. He's still only training three times a week!

Justin

[Conway]

As usual Justin you have summed things up nicely ... And I have to agree with you that the big difference in Chambers this year is he has major techincal changes ...

I am always amazed when sprinters talk about training 3 days a week !!! During the season I can understand, but during the build up to competitoin that just blows my mind ... It is a shame that MLF didn't get that sub 10 ... But perhaps that is a good thing .. Not cursed or anything

I agree that the US has a lot of potential ... But not sure that much of it will be realized ... Johnson and Crawford are both big strong sprinters, but Crawford is notorious for NOT training and the Dennis Mitchell Group seems to not be working so far (although JJ did run that 9.95) ...

Justin (or others), what do you think of the young Carribeans ??? That seems to be the most promising area of the world right now - even more so than the US ...

Conway

[Dan]

I can't help but wondering if "training 3 days a week" simply means 3 hard workouts in most cases? If so, that's still a perfectly full training load for much people, complimenting by, say, 1 race, 1 rest day, and 2 easy/moderate/technical days. I have a hard time believing anyone at that level (Montgomery said basically the same thing about himself previously) is sitting around doing nothing 3-4 days a week...

Dan

[Conway]

Well from Montgomery's statements he intimated that he was only dokng something 3 days a week ... I agree with your asessment of a "typical" week of training and having 3 of them hard, surrounded by ohter stuff ... But ONLY 3 days a week is hard for me to fathom ... Goes back to Carl Lewis' published workouts !!!!

Conway

[Dan]

After Montgomery's comment, someone (can't remember if it was here or on the t-and-f list) pointed out they were familiar with his coach at the time and didn't see any possible way Tim was permitted to train only 3 days a week. You know what I already think about Tim's perception of reality...

Dan

[Conway]

Well you're right ... I don't think Tim is wrapped too tight !!! Wwhich is wy I think he will continue to unravel despite the WR ... As a matter of fact the more I think about it, I have to move Chambers ahead of him on the potential for next year list ... Dwain's more "stable" ...

And speaking of stables, what do YOU think of the young Carribeans ??? I see a shift coming in global dominance ... If the US doesn't do something real soon about coaching and development ... We have lots of sprinters ... But as the mark of quality moves ever downward, I don't see that quantum leap taking place in the US ... HSI (which we have discussed) and TIm ... We have lots of 10.0x guys ... And some occasionally getting under 10, but it takes consistency under 10 and the ability to ago sub 9.90 to become a contender globally ...

Conway

[Dan]

I'm not sure I see the big threat you're talking about from the young Carribeans, other than maybe on the women's side. Seems like a pretty typical year to me, with a lot of good ones, several that are highly competitive, and most of the really good ones running for other countries...

Dan

[Conway]

Well Trinidad has teenagers Darrell Brown (10.09) & MARC Burns (10.18/20.79) ... Jamaica has Usain Bolt (20.58 and only 16 I believe) ... And Antigua has Brendan Christian (10.20/20.32) ..

And right now those apear to be the best of the up and comers and all are poised at about the point MLF was say a year to year and a half ago !!! And all are 18 or under if I am not mistaken ... I would consider them threats to American sprint dominance ... Not immediately ... but in a few years ... Tim and Mo are approaching 30 which means they are approaching peaks ... From there comes the slow (or rapid) road backwards ... And while we have young phenoms every year we do a lousy job of devloping them ...

Conway

[Dan]

I forgot about Brendan Christian... There's definitely a lot of potential among that group, but until that potential develops into world class times on the track, I'll take a wait and see attitude...

Dan