Run-Down Forums

[Shaun Fox]

in training the other night i ran 3x1mile reps with 5mins recovery between each mile rep. my times were as follows:
1st mile rep - 5:32
2nd mile rep - 5:29
3rd mile rep - 5:35

from these times what would you predict i could run a 5k race in?

[Dan]

Certain workouts are generally very good predictors of race performance, but I don't believe in picking any ol' workout and trying to base a prediction off it. It's a waste of time, plain and simple. Might hold true for one person and be way off target for someone else, just like trying to predict someone's marathon time from the 400m they ran 5 years ago.

There are too many unknowns to work with, such as if you ran your hardest on the repeats, if you could hold a similar pace with more reps and/or less rest, etc. The only thing we do know is that 5:30 is the fastest pace you are likely to hold for a 5k, putting you at about 17:10.

Beyond that, I will repeat what I have said previously -- the best predictor is to go out and do it! Anything else is about as productive as procrastinating.

Dan

[Micah Ward]

I agree with Dan's comments about the difficulty of predictions. The 5 minute rest is the wild card in trying to predict what you can do. How much did that rest actually help? I suggest you enter a relatively flat 5K and shoot for a 6:00 first mile and then adjust from there. If it is too slow then you can speed up the last 2 and learn from the experience. On the other hand, if you start at a 5:30 and die during the second mile then you will have a horrible experience and most likely end up with a slower time than if you use the first strategy. Good luck and keep us posted.
Micah