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Conway · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 9:37 am Post subject: US Outdoor Nationals

OK ... We are only a couple of days away from the US National OUtdoor Champiosnships ... Possibly the second biggest meet in the world this year and NO ONE seems to ohave anything to say !!!! This will determine the US team for Paris and evyone is stone quiet ... Predictions ??? Thoughts ??? I'll stick my neck out ...

Allyson Felix will make the 200 team and become the first high schooler in a very long time to make an international team ...

Kelli White will be the new Marion Jones after this meet ....

One of the University of Minnesota kids will make the team at either 400 or 4x4 or both ...

Mo Greene will make the 200 squad giving him a shot at doing the double in Paris ...

Allen Johnson will go sub 13 - and lose by .01 ...

Anyone have a clue who will win any of the distance races ???

Will Tim Montgomery make the 100 squad ???

Conversation anyone ???
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Conway
Speed Thrills

Dan · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 9:41 am Post subject:

Conway · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 10:10 am Post subject:

Going the last couple of days ... Spent last week at NCAA's and have to work sometime ...

I expect that times will be relatively average ... But for some reason teh hurdlers always seem to be able to turn things up a notch ... And I think there will be enough competition to make this race truly fast ... The only thing that I didn't think of until just this minute, is that the track is not the fastest so it might hamper times ... I am thinking that the mens sprints will go around 10.05/20.10/44.45 ... The women's in 10.95/22.25/51.00 ... I am clueless regarding the distances ... I've seen nothing from anyone that would help me out there ....
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Conway
Speed Thrills

Dan · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 10:46 am Post subject:

The distances feel like a Stanford all-comers meet right now... Neutral

Those men's sprint times look about like what I expect. Ditto for the women's 100, but I would be surprised if the 200 and 400 go that fast. I'm thinking more like 22.7 and 51.4.

Dan
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Micah Ward · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 2:30 pm Post subject:

Conway, nice to see you outside Sprint Central for a change. Wink

The usual cast of characters are signed up. Here is the plot line:

Kennedy in the 5K, does he still have it or is it time for Meb to take over? Bet on the latter. K'nnacher wins the 1500. Does Webb emerge in the 1500? Probably not yet. Do the Torres brothers emerge? Maybe too early there too. Bottom line on the men is that Meb and K'nnacher are probably the only ones to distinguish themselves. Tim Broe as a possible dark horse.

Regina will win the 1500 with Suzy close...as usual. Runyan wins the 5K and Drossin the 10K. Of personal interest, the daughter's former college team mate Mollie Defrancesco could make the team in the steeplechase. Don't really think a dark horse will emerge with the women.

And if you really feel adventurous Conway, check the Distance Den for the plot line preview for Western States. Very Happy

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Dan · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 3:06 pm Post subject:

I'd have to agree with all of Micah's picks. Kennedy is finished, although it's nice to see him continue to attempt the comeback with dignity. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jorge Torres make it in the 5k or 10k (what's he running?), but only because there isn't much depth outside Meb/Abdi/Culpepper/Goucher, and I don't think all of them are healthy...

What to say about Webb? If he ran the HS Champs meet in Raleigh instead of the HS/all-comers meet in Connecticut last week, he'd have been in the thick of the pack... Talk about crumbling under the pressure and expectations. Sad

Dan
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Conway · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 8:40 pm Post subject:

I agree with Micah's picks as well ... But the only one's I really have faith in are K'naker and Regina ... I think the others are all iffy ... Including Ms Hamilton ..

And if the women's races over the long sprints get too slow they won't have a chance come Paris ... Although I am not sure why we are going to send anyone in the 400 ...

I've been keeping my distance with the distances since I want to alot more speed to them than most of the distance folks will allow ... Wink

... I'll get ore vocal there once Europeheats up though ... They appreciate the added speed there ....
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Conway
Speed Thrills

Dan · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2003 9:04 pm Post subject:

There's a report that Cathy Freeman might be calling it quits, and I haven't heard anything from Merry and Perec since the off season, so not all the medal spots are accounted for yet. Not completely a waste of time for the US women in Paris...

Dan
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Micah Ward · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 4:45 am Post subject:

Hey Conway, I am all in favor of our distance runners having more speed. In fact I never understood the origin of the big bruhaha between the distance and sprint people anyway. But it seems that the people who got mad have left and Paul, Dan and I are the only ones regularly in the distance forum.

Come on over and sit for a spell...it gets lonely. Sad

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Conway · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 5:33 am Post subject:

I hear Freeman is 50/50 on quitting ... Apparently doesn't like to shippings she's been taking from Guevara lately ... But what does she expect after such a long lay off ??? Took time to get where she was and takes time to get back ...

Merry just went 52.2 about a week ago and says she is fit and getting ready for Paris ... The Russians always have a couple of q-milers ready for big meets ... As do the Germans ... So unless you can run under 51 its a waste to be in Paris ... Right now 50 point might medal (as in bronze) but a 51 gets you nothing ....

The brohuha in the distance arena boils down to stubborness in my opinon Micah ... Resistance to change ... Which is why the US is gettin its hat handed to it internationally in the distances ... And apparently it is going to take a few more years before the "young guns" are near ready - Webb, Ritz, et al ... K'naker may have a shot in the 1500 this year, but an 800/1500 double is NOT easy ... And we still have no one above 1500 ... Not that Goucher and the boys are decent ... Decent just doesn't cut it internationally ... We just refuse to learn .... Gettin our butts kicked on theory ...
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Conway
Speed Thrills

Dan · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 8:16 am Post subject:

Hey Micah, one more post for a cool 1k. Thumbs Up

Last I heard from Paul, he was possibly taking a new job within the company and switching from graveyard to regular hours, so I'm figuring that's why we haven't heard from him lately...

Merry's back on the track, huh? That could be interesting... She seems to round into form very quickly, but she can never stay healthy for long. Neutral

Dan
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Micah Ward · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 12:01 pm Post subject:

OK...here is post 1,000 Exclamation

Resistance to change is something that is hard to overcome. But common sense tells us that everything from running to computers to construction techniques to cooking theories evolve and improve over time. If you are not willing to evolve and take advantage of good changes then you get left behind.....literally.

Bob Kennedy was as good as he was because he trained with the Kenyans. To my knowledge he was the first American runner to do so. Now that was certainly a willingness to change. Surprised

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Dan · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 12:46 pm Post subject:

Interestingly, Kennedy also fell apart rather quickly after getting to that level. Coincidence, or something about the Kenyan training approach that he adopted?

Dan
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Micah Ward · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 1:07 pm Post subject:

He had some injuries and I am not sure if the training method contributed to that or not. It does seem that the Kenyans reach a peak and run strong for 3-4 years then fade away. But in any case...the point was that Kennedy had the courage to try something different.
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Dan · Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2003 1:42 pm Post subject:

...and reached a higher level (on the clock) than any American before or since.

Dan
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