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Blaze
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 Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 12:24 pm Post subject: I see Justin Gatlin winning the 100......... |
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| ....Athens. |
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Does anyone here know anything about speed? |
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Dan
Chief Pontificator
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Location: Salem, OR
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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Care to frame the question a bit more fully?
Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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Athens 100 - Men
Let's take a realistic look at the Athens 100
Current World List - Top 10:
9.88 Shawn Crawford
9.91 Asafa Powell
9.91 Maurice Greene
9.92 Justin Gatlin
9.95 John Capel
9.99 Coby Miller
10.00 Aziz Zakari
10.01 Leonard Scott
10.02 Francis Obikwelu
10.04 Mickey Grimes
10.04 Steve Mullings
10.04 Bernard Williams
Major Players (Potential Medalists):
Mo Greene - US Trials winner .. Defending Olympic Champion .. 3 time World Champ .. Former WR holder at 9.79 .. Back to his consistent form this year, running consistent sub 10's .. Has suffered losses in insignificant races, but showed his big meet nature in Sacramento ..
Justin Gatlin - US Trials runner up .. Twice PRd at the Trials (9.96 & 9.92) .. Upped his game at the Trials after so-so Spring .. Has been so-so again post Trials .. Will have to return to Trials form (w/ decent starts) to have a medal shot ..
Shawn Crawford - US Trials number 3 .. World leader with a PR 9.88 .. Has raced sparingly this year - had two 100 meter competitions before the Trials, and none since .. Will definitely be under races going into Athens ..
Asafa Powell - Jamaican Champion .. Seemed ready to break through at last years WC til dq in semi kept him out of the final .. Has had a blazing series of wins this season, including a 9.91 at Jamaican Trials and a 9.91 win over Greene (9.97) in London ..
Francis Obikwelu - Europes best .. Formerly of Nigeria, now representing Portugal .. Seems to be back to his 1999 form when he was one of the Worlds best young sprinters ..
Entering this season, the big question was "will defending Olympic champion Mo Greene stay healthy?"
Then after several fast races (windy and not) the question heading into Sacramento was "can Mo Greene run rounds?" .. The answer to that was an emphatic YES, as Mo won the Trials in a meet record 9.91 (albeit it narrowly over Gatlin and Crawford) .. Now the question seems to be "can Mo Greene hold off the challenge of Jamaica's Asafa Powell?" Stay tuned for the August 22nd answer to that question ..
Clearly, this race is shaping up as a show down between Greene and Powell, and is taking on Lewis v Johnson type shape .. These two have to be considered the current co-favorites in this race
Both have been fast and consistent
Greene went through the crucible of the US Trials and emerged victorious in the greatest ever Trials final
He's run fast all season, remained healthy, and proved he can get through the rounds in fine fashion .. He has suffered 3 defeats - all to power sprinters with strong finishes
Powell is undefeated and has had an easier season - not going through the US season and having being head and shoulders better than those he faced in the Jamaican Trials
None the less, his win over Greene in London was impressive coming in a relaxed fashion with "seemingly" a bit left in reserve ..
Gatlin and Crawford have been a bit of enigma's this season
Gatlin suffered losses amid poor starts prior to the Trials, then seemingly had it together
Only to lose it again post Trials
A good start puts him in the medals
A poor one has him on the outside looking in
Crawford has run well every time out - he's just had only a handful of races to evaluate .. Still a poor starter, Crawford has finished like a banshee - but will need to be close enough to make it a factor as the US Trials showed
Obikwelu showed in his Paris win over Greene that he should not be discounted .. However his unpredictable nature means he could either be right there in the medal hunt, or get blown out
Just depends on the day
Gold and silver will be decided at the start of this race
If Greene gets one of his trademark starts he wins gold and Powell gets silver
If not, Powell gets gold and Greene gets silver
Simple as that
And if either stumbles - even a fraction - Gatlin or Crawford will go right by em
Prediction:
1. 9.83 Maurice Greene
2. 9.85 Asafa Powell
3. 9.89 Shawn Crawford
4. 9.91 Justin Gatlin
5. 9.97 Francis Obikwelu
6. 9.99 Aziz Zakari
7. 10.05 Uchenna Emedolu
8. 10.11 Tamunosiki Atorudibo
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Conway
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Blaze
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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Rookies!
Times mean nothing when it comes to these big meets you don't know that? You must be new at this! |
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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Obviously you can't read ... Dare I say illiterate ....
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Conway
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Blaze
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Conway wrote: | | Obviously you can't read ... Dare I say illiterate .... |
I can read good enought to take you to school if we are talking speed. |
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Dan
Chief Pontificator
Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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Blaze, please have the courtesy to discuss things maturely or don't bother. If you truly believe you know that much more than Conway and others here (which I sincerely doubt), enlighten us and earn the respect you seem to think you deserve.
If that's too much to ask, I have no problem banning those who refuse to play nice.
Dan
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YUKON QUEST
Junior Varsity
Joined: 22 Jul 2004
Posts: 144
Location: Italy
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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I'm agree with you Conway. The podium wil be that, but about first and second place I' don't know which will be the order. there will be a very close race
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Blaze
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Dan wrote: | Blaze, please have the courtesy to discuss things maturely or don't bother. If you truly believe you know that much more than Conway and others here (which I sincerely doubt), enlighten us and earn the respect you seem to think you deserve.
If that's too much to ask, I have no problem banning those who refuse to play nice.
Dan |
Ok let's look at Athens..........
Mo has had health prioblems and hasn't been consistant as of late.Powell has never beat the top dawgs in anything that mattered.Kim Colins is a mere shadow of his world champion self.Shawn Crawford lost to Gatlin who was gaining on Mo at the trials.
Yep Justin Gatlin will be "da man" when the smoke clears.
ok? |
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Paul
Olympic Medalist
Joined: 28 Apr 2002
Posts: 1610
Location: Oregon
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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Excellent synopsis, Conway. You can't get that kind of analysis anywhere but here.
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Dan
Chief Pontificator
Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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That's better, thank you.
| Quote: | | Mo has had health prioblems and hasn't been consistant as of late. |
Conway addressed both of those points in detail. He hasn't shown health problems this year and actually has been back to his consistent self of old.
| Quote: | | Powell has never beat the top dawgs in anything that mattered. |
Agaon, Conway addressed that in terms of the DQ at the inopportune time last year.
| Quote: | | Kim Colins is a mere shadow of his world champion self. |
And Conway didn't even list him.... Doesn't consider Collins a factor, to which I don't agree with.
Dan
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Blaze
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Dan wrote: | That's better, thank you.
| Quote: | | Mo has had health prioblems and hasn't been consistant as of late. |
Conway addressed both of those points in detail. He hasn't shown health problems this year and actually has been back to his consistent self of old.
| Quote: | | Powell has never beat the top dawgs in anything that mattered. |
Agaon, Conway addressed that in terms of the DQ at the inopportune time last year.
| Quote: | | Kim Colins is a mere shadow of his world champion self. |
And Conway didn't even list him.... Doesn't consider Collins a factor, to which I don't agree with.
Dan |
Of course there is Obikwelu who I failed to mention.He could be due to finally live up to his potential. Why he didn't run 400? |
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks Dan ... Regarding Collins, he has done nothing as of this season to indicate that he can run with any of these guys ... His season best is a mere 10.27 ... And he has beaten no one of any note at all ...
I realize he is the current World Champion ... but then again Tim Montgomery is also the current WR holder ... Neither means much for either one of them ... Collins won his World title in the slowest Major 100 race in 20 years ... Mo injured ... Powell dq'd ... Montgomery a shell ... the other two medalists were a kid (great kid but still a kid) who won't be a factor ... And the number 2 or 3 Brit who also will not be a factor this year ...
Last year's World race will go down as an abberation ... And will be the first where the champion does not also become Olympic champion ...
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Conway
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Blaze
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| Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Conway wrote: | Thanks Dan ... Regarding Collins, he has done nothing as of this season to indicate that he can run with any of these guys ... His season best is a mere 10.27 ... And he has beaten no one of any note at all ...
I realize he is the current World Champion ... but then again Tim Montgomery is also the current WR holder ... Neither means much for either one of them ... Collins won his World title in the slowest Major 100 race in 20 years ... Mo injured ... Powell dq'd ... Montgomery a shell ... the other two medalists were a kid (great kid but still a kid) who won't be a factor ... And the number 2 or 3 Brit who also will not be a factor this year ...
Last year's World race will go down as an abberation ... And will be the first where the champion does not also become Olympic champion ... |
You have to get off your fetish for "times" didn't Patrick Johnson lead the world last season with hs 9.93? Where was he when it counted? Didn't two Nigerians run faster than Collins last season,where were they? Didn't Bernard Williams lead the world in 200 as far as "times" go? John Capel ran a sluggest 20.17 yet he won the World's. Where was 20.02 Shawn Crawford?
It's about "energy management" once we enter these big meets where rounds are contested. It's who can conserve that speed that counts not if someone ran a ....whatever! At this level there are no slow pokes! |
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