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Olympic Champions Amongst "Normals"
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Indeurr
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PostPosted: Wed May 05, 2004 6:22 pm    Post subject: Olympic Champions Amongst "Normals" Reply with quote

According to the normal distribution of skills theory (yes, theory) 0.135% of people should be super talented in one way or another, 2.145% should be gifted, and 13.59% should be above average. In addition, 68.26% of people should be average, and almost 16% challenged with respect to a specific skill.
This approach is most controversial when applied to intellectual abilities such as IQ However, this approach has been widely accepted and used when it comes to other abilities such as athletic ability.
My contention is that an insignificant number of people who are in the above--mentioned super--talented, gifted, and above--average groups participate in the track and field activities or participate in the track and field activities at the professional level.
Therefore, I should be able to estimate the number of the runners in the state of New Jersey who participate in the 5 K road races, and who belong to the above--mentioned five groups.
It would be interesting to create a hypothesis how "a failed-Olympian" or the member of the super--gifted group is performing in the amateur 5k road races.
I do not want to analyze all the 5 K road races in New Jersey. I want to 'guess' a rather reliable sample: the 5 K Open Championships race, a rather fast race, and a rather slow race. Just three races to get this project off the ground.
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Dan
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PostPosted: Wed May 05, 2004 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
My contention is that an insignificant number of people who are in the above--mentioned super--talented, gifted, and above--average groups participate in the track and field activities or participate in the track and field activities at the professional level.

What do you base that contention on? Why would it be an insignificant portion of that grouop? I see no connection there.

Dan
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Indeurr
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 08 Aug 2001
Posts: 1558
Location: Elizabeth, NJ, 07202

PostPosted: Sat May 08, 2004 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dan wrote:
Quote:
My contention is that an insignificant number of people who are in the above--mentioned super--talented, gifted, and above--average groups participate in the track and field activities or participate in the track and field activities at the professional level.

What do you base that contention on? Why would it be an insignificant portion of that grouop? I see no connection there.

Dan


Assuming that the theory is right, there should be:
roughly 280 000 000 x 0.135% = 280 000 000 x 0.00135 Olympians in the United States ->37 800.
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Dan
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PostPosted: Sat May 08, 2004 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That strikes me as a very flawed theory. 0.135% are super talented in some respect. Great. What's that say about Olympians? Nothing at all. Being super talented is only one component of many that goes into making a great athlete. One such significant component is if sports are even their pertinent area of greatness. That's going to significantly reduce your 37,800 number, so how do you conclude an insignificant number of super talented types go into T&F? You first need some sort of distribution of what the likelihood is of each area of talent.

Doesn't make any sense to me...

Dan
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Indeurr
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PostPosted: Sun May 09, 2004 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still, even the IQ scale is based on this insanity. There is simply nothing better. I agree with your arguments to an extent. However, people may be multitalented and not know it, or not pursue it, or even lack dedication to be able to exploit their giftedness.
What I want to go after is the giftedness per se as manifested by extraordinary results even at the lowest level, and not the final product.
One may argue that individual IQ may be based on many born with separate abilities or skills. However, the IQ scale does not measure these different abilities, but at least attempts to measure the 'general IQ.'
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Dan
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PostPosted: Sun May 09, 2004 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have no idea what you're trying to establish...

Dan
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Indeurr
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Location: Elizabeth, NJ, 07202

PostPosted: Tue May 11, 2004 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Main Goal: to see where am I on the scale, and who may be beyond my reach.
Another Goal: To win NB NJ Road Running Grand Prix (there are three to choose from) in 2005.
Last Goal: To see which runners amongst the 5k or/and 10k runners posses the greatest, or just greater then average born with ability, and who struggles towards moral victory in each and every race.
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Indeurr
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Location: Elizabeth, NJ, 07202

PostPosted: Tue May 11, 2004 8:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the phrase is "show, do not tell." As you must have noticed I am not the best at clearly explaining. I believe that it is going to be much clearer once I compile the data, and try to apply in real life over entire road running season of 2005.
I should be able to compete: I got my weight stable at 187, 6' 3/4'', and lowered my blood pressure to 104 by 56, and my pulse after a 2.2 miles time trial, followed next day by 'speed' intervals 7 x 700 m at 3:00 minutes pace, was 50 per minute.
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Dan
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PostPosted: Tue May 11, 2004 8:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those are reasonable goals, but I don't see any way you can tie IQ-like percentile numbers for overall population abilities to performance scales in a specific sport. Mental gymnastics, if you ask me.

Dan
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Indeurr
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Location: Elizabeth, NJ, 07202

PostPosted: Thu May 13, 2004 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

___In reality this sort of distribution was first applied to physical characteristics, later, it was applied to different human abilities, finally, it was applied to create the IQ scale. The IQ scale is based on the same distribution as the weight distribution within a given population.
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