Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2015 Boys 6A Projections # Pts Name Time GR School 1 1 Ahmed Muhumed 15:12.0 11 West Salem 2 2 Jackson Mestler 15:13.5 12 Sheldon 3 3 Roman Ollar 15:22.3 12 West Linn 4 4 Grayson Ollar 15:24.5 12 West Linn 5 5 Joshua Schumacher 15:35.0 10 Jesuit 6 6 Alex Slenning 15:42.5 10 Wilson 7 7 Michael Martin 15:44.4 12 South Eugene 8 8 Michael McCausland 15:44.8 11 Central Catholic 9 9 Murimi Nyamu 15:46.1 12 Forest Grove 10 -- Mark French 15:46.4 12 Tualatin 11 10 Mason Wegener 15:47.3 12 South Eugene 12 11 Luis Torres 15:48.0 12 Aloha 13 12 Zane Fodge 15:49.8 9 McMinnville 14 13 Andy Muha 15:50.1 11 Sunset 15 14 Jacob Shelton 15:53.3 12 Sheldon 16 15 Caleb Seely 15:54.3 11 Wilson 17 16 Avi Meyer 15:57.3 12 Lincoln 18 17 Max Hite 15:57.5 12 Jesuit 19 -- Ollie Tuffa 15:58.2 12 David Douglas 20 -- Henry Mong 15:59.1 11 Franklin 21 18 Chase Howard 15:59.5 12 Wilson 22 -- Angel Salazar 15:59.8 12 Century 23 19 Maxel Belnap 15:59.9 11 Grants Pass 24 -- Jalato Sultessa 16:00.5 12 Cleveland 25 20 Jackson Frank 16:01.0 12 Central Catholic 26 21 Dominic Arce 16:01.1 11 Lincoln 27 22 Jenner Higgins 16:01.1 11 Sheldon 28 -- Steven Cranston 16:02.4 12 Canby 29 23 Ransom Gravatt 16:03.4 12 Lincoln 30 24 Pierce Miller 16:04.1 12 Lincoln 31 25 Adin Becker 16:04.8 12 Lincoln 32 26 Tony Watts 16:05.5 12 Aloha 33 -- Alex Villa 16:08.2 9 South Medford 34 27 Shad Galloway 16:08.3 11 Sunset 35 28 Will Sheaffer 16:08.7 9 Jesuit 36 -- Adam Klein 16:09.3 10 Tualatin 37 29 Jakob Tew 16:09.8 11 Sunset 38 30 Sam Behrens 16:10.1 12 Wilson 39 31 MacKenzie Norman 16:11.1 10 Forest Grove 40 32 Zack Lavier 16:12.3 12 Central Catholic 41 33 Conor Egan 16:13.1 12 West Linn 42 34 Stephen Fey 16:13.4 12 Sunset 43 35 Luke Sparks 16:13.9 12 Jesuit 44 36 Deklan Humble 16:15.4 10 Jesuit 45 (37) Cole Arenz 16:15.9 12 Jesuit 46 (38) Carson Cohn 16:16.2 11 Lincoln 47 39 Chris Nussbaum 16:17.1 12 Wilson 48 40 Ayush Choudhury 16:17.5 12 Sunset 49 41 Hunter Mosman 16:18.4 12 West Salem 50 42 Keaton Holt 16:18.9 11 Grant 51 (43) Kian Mitchell 16:19.4 10 Wilson 52 44 Daniel Thompson 16:20.0 12 Central Catholic 53 45 Cameron Thompson 16:21.7 10 Central Catholic 54 -- Dylan Ryals 16:22.5 12 West Albany 55 (46) Jose Aguilar 16:23.7 12 Lincoln 56 47 Noah Belcik 16:25.8 12 Lakeridge 57 (48) Logan Phillips 16:27.1 11 Jesuit 58 49 Spencer Tsai 16:30.9 11 South Eugene 59 -- Jacob Allamaras 16:31.3 9 North Medford 60 50 Eli Cytrynbaum 16:31.3 12 South Eugene 61 51 Daniel Ragsdale 16:32.6 12 Lakeridge 62 (52) Eric Brecht 16:34.0 10 Central Catholic 63 (53) Gavin Macpherson 16:36.7 11 Central Catholic 64 (54) Ryan French 16:37.0 12 Sunset 65 55 Quinton Read 16:39.6 11 Newberg 66 56 Gabe Bader 16:41.6 12 Grant 67 -- Nicholas Speth 16:41.8 11 Tigard 68 57 Ian Bake 16:41.8 10 Aloha 69 (58) Ethan Reese 16:43.0 9 Sunset 70 59 Jeremy Shahan 16:43.3 11 Aloha 71 60 Nathan Burton 16:44.9 10 Grants Pass 72 61 Devon Wilson 16:46.3 12 McMinnville 73 62 Sage Fox 16:46.6 12 South Eugene 74 (63) Liam Monroe 16:47.6 10 South Eugene 75 64 Philip Quinton 16:49.0 10 Grant 76 65 Alex Harbert 16:50.2 11 Lakeridge 77 66 Fabian Elizondo Jr 16:50.4 10 West Salem 78 67 Jack Chapman 16:52.0 10 Lakeridge 79 (68) Xavier Triplett 16:53.7 12 Wilson 80 69 Ethan Shields 16:55.2 12 Grant 81 70 Matt Uzzle 16:55.7 10 Aloha 82 71 Liam Jemison 16:55.8 12 Grant 83 (72) Griffin Shaulis 16:56.9 12 Aloha 84 73 Sean Ramos 16:58.5 12 Newberg 85 74 Riley Stewart 16:58.8 11 Forest Grove 86 -- Abel Sandoval 16:59.3 12 North Salem 87 75 John Wetzsteon 16:59.8 9 West Linn 88 76 Logan Divelbiss 17:01.8 11 West Salem 89 77 Thomas Hayes 17:02.0 12 Grants Pass 90 78 Matt Lautze 17:04.3 11 Lakeridge 91 79 Jackson Skortman 17:05.4 10 Sheldon 92 80 Michael Abeyta 17:05.5 10 McMinnville 93 81 James Swyter 17:07.4 12 Oregon City 94 (82) Sam Andrus 17:07.4 11 Aloha 95 83 Avery Cook 17:09.2 9 West Linn 96 (84) Fred Kerr 17:10.7 10 Grant 97 (85) Noah Shlesinger 17:11.1 12 South Eugene 98 86 Matt Stanich 17:11.2 12 Forest Grove 99 87 Aerie Baxter 17:11.5 12 Newberg 100 88 Barrett Titus 17:13.8 11 Grants Pass 101 89 Jacob Fry 17:14.5 12 Reynolds 102 -- Josh Ramirez 17:15.6 11 Centennial 103 90 Brennen Le Bel 17:16.2 10 West Salem 104 -- Kade Prentice 17:16.7 11 Clackamas 105 91 Arel Espinoza 17:17.3 10 McMinnville 106 (92) Benjamin Johnson 17:18.3 11 West Salem 107 93 Timy Ivanishchuk 17:19.3 11 Reynolds 108 (94) Justin Miller 17:19.4 12 Lakeridge 109 95 Erik Solano 17:19.5 11 Reynolds 110 96 Jesse Shaneyfelt 17:20.3 11 Sheldon 111 97 Daniel Beckstead 17:21.1 9 Grants Pass 112 (98) Jack Casey 17:24.9 11 Grant 113 99 Jason Kiff 17:28.1 12 McMinnville 114 100 Harley West 17:28.8 12 Reynolds 115 101 Hyrum Hansen 17:29.4 11 Forest Grove 116 (102) Solomon Faulkner 17:32.3 11 Sheldon 117 103 Christian Carsh 17:33.4 12 Newberg 118 104 Anthony Glaze 17:34.1 11 Newberg 119 (105) Peter Goetze 17:34.8 12 West Linn 120 (106) Brandon Austin 17:34.9 12 McMinnville 121 (107) Garrett Riggs 17:35.0 12 Lakeridge 122 (108) Will Smothers 17:35.5 12 McMinnville 123 109 Darien Reed 17:37.2 11 Oregon City 124 110 Anthony Lopez 17:42.8 10 Oregon City 125 111 Andy Solano 17:43.8 11 Reynolds 126 (112) Garrett Stewart 17:45.2 11 Forest Grove 127 (113) Cooper Frantz-Geddes 17:49.2 12 West Salem 128 (114) Grayson Mazziotti 17:49.4 10 Sheldon 129 (115) Jake Lally 17:49.9 11 West Linn 130 (116) Nathan Geiger 17:50.6 10 Reynolds 131 (117) Daniel Hernandez-K... 17:55.4 11 Forest Grove 132 118 Ethan Dodson 17:59.2 12 Oregon City 133 (119) Ryan Merker 18:01.6 11 Grants Pass 134 (120) Dimitri Underwood 18:02.9 9 Grants Pass 135 (121) Sage Albright 18:16.0 12 Newberg 136 122 Wade Cisneros 18:19.6 10 Oregon City 137 (123) Kyle Brown 18:21.0 11 Oregon City 138 (124) Robert Webb 18:22.0 12 Oregon City 139 (125) Ryan Hanks 18:29.9 11 Newberg 140 (126) John Laferte 18:32.4 9 Reynolds 1) Wilson 6 - 15 - 18 - 30 - 39 - (43) - (68) = 108 (#1-5 spread = 34.6 sec) 2) Lincoln 16 - 21 - 23 - 24 - 25 - (38) - (46) = 109 (#1-5 spread = 7.5 sec) 3) Jesuit 5 - 17 - 28 - 35 - 36 - (37) - (48) = 121 (#1-5 spread = 40.4 sec) 4) Sunset 13 - 27 - 29 - 34 - 40 - (54) - (58) = 143 (#1-5 spread = 27.4 sec) 5) Central Catholic 8 - 20 - 32 - 44 - 45 - (52) - (53) = 149 (#1-5 spread = 36.9 sec) 6) South Eugene 7 - 10 - 49 - 50 - 62 - (63) - (85) = 178 (#1-5 spread = 62.2 sec) 7) West Linn 3 - 4 - 33 - 75 - 83 - (105) - (115) = 198 (#1-5 spread = 106.9 sec) 8) Sheldon 2 - 14 - 22 - 79 - 96 - (102) - (114) = 213 (#1-5 spread = 126.8 sec) 9) Aloha 11 - 26 - 57 - 59 - 70 - (72) - (82) = 223 (#1-5 spread = 67.7 sec) 10) West Salem 1 - 41 - 66 - 76 - 90 - (92) - (113) = 274 (#1-5 spread = 124.2 sec) 11) Forest Grove 9 - 31 - 74 - 86 - 101 - (112) - (117) = 301 (#1-5 spread = 103.3 sec) 12) Grant 42 - 56 - 64 - 69 - 71 - (84) - (98) = 302 (#1-5 spread = 36.9 sec) 13) Lakeridge 47 - 51 - 65 - 67 - 78 - (94) - (107) = 308 (#1-5 spread = 38.5 sec) 14) Grants Pass 19 - 60 - 77 - 88 - 97 - (119) - (120) = 341 (#1-5 spread = 81.2 sec) 15) McMinnville 12 - 61 - 80 - 91 - 99 - (106) - (108) = 343 (#1-5 spread = 98.3 sec) 16) Newberg 55 - 73 - 87 - 103 - 104 - (121) - (125) = 422 (#1-5 spread = 54.5 sec) 17) Reynolds 89 - 93 - 95 - 100 - 111 - (116) - (126) = 488 (#1-5 spread = 29.3 sec) 18) Oregon City 81 - 109 - 110 - 118 - 122 - (123) - (124) = 540 (#1-5 spread = 72.2 sec) Course adjustments applied this year: GVC +7.1 Metro +3.0 MHC +7.0 PIL +0.0 SWC -13.4 TRL -6.4 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons. Special thanks to David Bowdoin / athletic.net for help in compiling the data.