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Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2015 Boys 6A Projections

#	Pts	Name	Time	GR	School
1	1	Ahmed Muhumed	15:12.0	11	West Salem
2	2	Jackson Mestler	15:13.5	12	Sheldon
3	3	Roman Ollar	15:22.3	12	West Linn
4	4	Grayson Ollar	15:24.5	12	West Linn
5	5	Joshua Schumacher	15:35.0	10	Jesuit
6	6	Alex Slenning	15:42.5	10	Wilson
7	7	Michael Martin	15:44.4	12	South Eugene
8	8	Michael McCausland	15:44.8	11	Central Catholic
9	9	Murimi Nyamu	15:46.1	12	Forest Grove
10	--	Mark French	15:46.4	12	Tualatin
11	10	Mason Wegener	15:47.3	12	South Eugene
12	11	Luis Torres	15:48.0	12	Aloha
13	12	Zane Fodge	15:49.8	9	McMinnville
14	13	Andy Muha	15:50.1	11	Sunset
15	14	Jacob Shelton	15:53.3	12	Sheldon
16	15	Caleb Seely	15:54.3	11	Wilson
17	16	Avi Meyer	15:57.3	12	Lincoln
18	17	Max Hite	15:57.5	12	Jesuit
19	--	Ollie Tuffa	15:58.2	12	David Douglas
20	--	Henry Mong	15:59.1	11	Franklin
21	18	Chase Howard	15:59.5	12	Wilson
22	--	Angel Salazar	15:59.8	12	Century
23	19	Maxel Belnap	15:59.9	11	Grants Pass
24	--	Jalato Sultessa	16:00.5	12	Cleveland
25	20	Jackson Frank	16:01.0	12	Central Catholic
26	21	Dominic Arce	16:01.1	11	Lincoln
27	22	Jenner Higgins	16:01.1	11	Sheldon
28	--	Steven Cranston	16:02.4	12	Canby
29	23	Ransom Gravatt	16:03.4	12	Lincoln
30	24	Pierce Miller	16:04.1	12	Lincoln
31	25	Adin Becker	16:04.8	12	Lincoln
32	26	Tony Watts	16:05.5	12	Aloha
33	--	Alex Villa	16:08.2	9	South Medford
34	27	Shad Galloway	16:08.3	11	Sunset
35	28	Will Sheaffer	16:08.7	9	Jesuit
36	--	Adam Klein	16:09.3	10	Tualatin
37	29	Jakob Tew	16:09.8	11	Sunset
38	30	Sam Behrens	16:10.1	12	Wilson
39	31	MacKenzie Norman	16:11.1	10	Forest Grove
40	32	Zack Lavier	16:12.3	12	Central Catholic
41	33	Conor Egan	16:13.1	12	West Linn
42	34	Stephen Fey	16:13.4	12	Sunset
43	35	Luke Sparks	16:13.9	12	Jesuit
44	36	Deklan Humble	16:15.4	10	Jesuit
45	(37)	Cole Arenz	16:15.9	12	Jesuit
46	(38)	Carson Cohn	16:16.2	11	Lincoln
47	39	Chris Nussbaum	16:17.1	12	Wilson
48	40	Ayush Choudhury	16:17.5	12	Sunset
49	41	Hunter Mosman	16:18.4	12	West Salem
50	42	Keaton Holt	16:18.9	11	Grant
51	(43)	Kian Mitchell	16:19.4	10	Wilson
52	44	Daniel Thompson	16:20.0	12	Central Catholic
53	45	Cameron Thompson	16:21.7	10	Central Catholic
54	--	Dylan Ryals	16:22.5	12	West Albany
55	(46)	Jose Aguilar	16:23.7	12	Lincoln
56	47	Noah Belcik	16:25.8	12	Lakeridge
57	(48)	Logan Phillips	16:27.1	11	Jesuit
58	49	Spencer Tsai	16:30.9	11	South Eugene
59	--	Jacob Allamaras	16:31.3	9	North Medford
60	50	Eli Cytrynbaum	16:31.3	12	South Eugene
61	51	Daniel Ragsdale	16:32.6	12	Lakeridge
62	(52)	Eric Brecht	16:34.0	10	Central Catholic
63	(53)	Gavin Macpherson	16:36.7	11	Central Catholic
64	(54)	Ryan French	16:37.0	12	Sunset
65	55	Quinton Read	16:39.6	11	Newberg
66	56	Gabe Bader	16:41.6	12	Grant
67	--	Nicholas Speth	16:41.8	11	Tigard
68	57	Ian Bake	16:41.8	10	Aloha
69	(58)	Ethan Reese	16:43.0	9	Sunset
70	59	Jeremy Shahan	16:43.3	11	Aloha
71	60	Nathan Burton	16:44.9	10	Grants Pass
72	61	Devon Wilson	16:46.3	12	McMinnville
73	62	Sage Fox	16:46.6	12	South Eugene
74	(63)	Liam Monroe	16:47.6	10	South Eugene
75	64	Philip Quinton	16:49.0	10	Grant
76	65	Alex Harbert	16:50.2	11	Lakeridge
77	66	Fabian Elizondo Jr	16:50.4	10	West Salem
78	67	Jack Chapman	16:52.0	10	Lakeridge
79	(68)	Xavier Triplett	16:53.7	12	Wilson
80	69	Ethan Shields	16:55.2	12	Grant
81	70	Matt Uzzle	16:55.7	10	Aloha
82	71	Liam Jemison	16:55.8	12	Grant
83	(72)	Griffin Shaulis	16:56.9	12	Aloha
84	73	Sean Ramos	16:58.5	12	Newberg
85	74	Riley Stewart	16:58.8	11	Forest Grove
86	--	Abel Sandoval	16:59.3	12	North Salem
87	75	John Wetzsteon	16:59.8	9	West Linn
88	76	Logan Divelbiss	17:01.8	11	West Salem
89	77	Thomas Hayes	17:02.0	12	Grants Pass
90	78	Matt Lautze	17:04.3	11	Lakeridge
91	79	Jackson Skortman	17:05.4	10	Sheldon
92	80	Michael Abeyta	17:05.5	10	McMinnville
93	81	James Swyter	17:07.4	12	Oregon City
94	(82)	Sam Andrus	17:07.4	11	Aloha
95	83	Avery Cook	17:09.2	9	West Linn
96	(84)	Fred Kerr	17:10.7	10	Grant
97	(85)	Noah Shlesinger	17:11.1	12	South Eugene
98	86	Matt Stanich	17:11.2	12	Forest Grove
99	87	Aerie Baxter	17:11.5	12	Newberg
100	88	Barrett Titus	17:13.8	11	Grants Pass
101	89	Jacob Fry	17:14.5	12	Reynolds
102	--	Josh Ramirez	17:15.6	11	Centennial
103	90	Brennen Le Bel	17:16.2	10	West Salem
104	--	Kade Prentice	17:16.7	11	Clackamas
105	91	Arel Espinoza	17:17.3	10	McMinnville
106	(92)	Benjamin Johnson	17:18.3	11	West Salem
107	93	Timy Ivanishchuk	17:19.3	11	Reynolds
108	(94)	Justin Miller	17:19.4	12	Lakeridge
109	95	Erik Solano	17:19.5	11	Reynolds
110	96	Jesse Shaneyfelt	17:20.3	11	Sheldon
111	97	Daniel Beckstead	17:21.1	9	Grants Pass
112	(98)	Jack Casey	17:24.9	11	Grant
113	99	Jason Kiff	17:28.1	12	McMinnville
114	100	Harley West	17:28.8	12	Reynolds
115	101	Hyrum Hansen	17:29.4	11	Forest Grove
116	(102)	Solomon Faulkner	17:32.3	11	Sheldon
117	103	Christian Carsh	17:33.4	12	Newberg
118	104	Anthony Glaze	17:34.1	11	Newberg
119	(105)	Peter Goetze	17:34.8	12	West Linn
120	(106)	Brandon Austin	17:34.9	12	McMinnville
121	(107)	Garrett Riggs	17:35.0	12	Lakeridge
122	(108)	Will Smothers	17:35.5	12	McMinnville
123	109	Darien Reed	17:37.2	11	Oregon City
124	110	Anthony Lopez	17:42.8	10	Oregon City
125	111	Andy Solano	17:43.8	11	Reynolds
126	(112)	Garrett Stewart	17:45.2	11	Forest Grove
127	(113)	Cooper Frantz-Geddes	17:49.2	12	West Salem
128	(114)	Grayson Mazziotti	17:49.4	10	Sheldon
129	(115)	Jake Lally	17:49.9	11	West Linn
130	(116)	Nathan Geiger	17:50.6	10	Reynolds
131	(117)	Daniel Hernandez-K...	17:55.4	11	Forest Grove
132	118	Ethan Dodson	17:59.2	12	Oregon City
133	(119)	Ryan Merker	18:01.6	11	Grants Pass
134	(120)	Dimitri Underwood	18:02.9	9	Grants Pass
135	(121)	Sage Albright	18:16.0	12	Newberg
136	122	Wade Cisneros	18:19.6	10	Oregon City
137	(123)	Kyle Brown	18:21.0	11	Oregon City
138	(124)	Robert Webb	18:22.0	12	Oregon City
139	(125)	Ryan Hanks	18:29.9	11	Newberg
140	(126)	John Laferte	18:32.4	9	Reynolds

1) Wilson	 	6 - 15 - 18 - 30 - 39 - (43) - (68) = 108	  	(#1-5 spread = 34.6 sec)
2) Lincoln	 	16 - 21 - 23 - 24 - 25 - (38) - (46) = 109	  	(#1-5 spread = 7.5 sec)
3) Jesuit	 	5 - 17 - 28 - 35 - 36 - (37) - (48) = 121	  	(#1-5 spread = 40.4 sec)
4) Sunset	 	13 - 27 - 29 - 34 - 40 - (54) - (58) = 143	  	(#1-5 spread = 27.4 sec)
5) Central Catholic	 	8 - 20 - 32 - 44 - 45 - (52) - (53) = 149	  	(#1-5 spread = 36.9 sec)
6) South Eugene	 	7 - 10 - 49 - 50 - 62 - (63) - (85) = 178	  	(#1-5 spread = 62.2 sec)
7) West Linn	 	3 - 4 - 33 - 75 - 83 - (105) - (115) = 198	  	(#1-5 spread = 106.9 sec)
8) Sheldon	 	2 - 14 - 22 - 79 - 96 - (102) - (114) = 213	  	(#1-5 spread = 126.8 sec)
9) Aloha	 	11 - 26 - 57 - 59 - 70 - (72) - (82) = 223	  	(#1-5 spread = 67.7 sec)
10) West Salem	 	1 - 41 - 66 - 76 - 90 - (92) - (113) = 274	  	(#1-5 spread = 124.2 sec)
11) Forest Grove	 	9 - 31 - 74 - 86 - 101 - (112) - (117) = 301	  	(#1-5 spread = 103.3 sec)
12) Grant	 	42 - 56 - 64 - 69 - 71 - (84) - (98) = 302	  	(#1-5 spread = 36.9 sec)
13) Lakeridge	 	47 - 51 - 65 - 67 - 78 - (94) - (107) = 308	  	(#1-5 spread = 38.5 sec)
14) Grants Pass	 	19 - 60 - 77 - 88 - 97 - (119) - (120) = 341	  	(#1-5 spread = 81.2 sec)
15) McMinnville	 	12 - 61 - 80 - 91 - 99 - (106) - (108) = 343	  	(#1-5 spread = 98.3 sec)
16) Newberg	 	55 - 73 - 87 - 103 - 104 - (121) - (125) = 422	  	(#1-5 spread = 54.5 sec)
17) Reynolds	 	89 - 93 - 95 - 100 - 111 - (116) - (126) = 488	  	(#1-5 spread = 29.3 sec)
18) Oregon City	 	81 - 109 - 110 - 118 - 122 - (123) - (124) = 540	  	(#1-5 spread = 72.2 sec)

Course adjustments applied this year:
GVC +7.1
Metro +3.0
MHC +7.0
PIL +0.0
SWC -13.4
TRL -6.4

The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top
runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied
as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at
sub-maximal efforts.  I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top
few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be
faster, some will be slower, so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to
take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in
the thick of the pack.  The focus is on average team placement moreso than
individuals.  A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets
or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of
bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key
to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the
various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying
individuals to compare respective courses.  This is often complicated by the
over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one
meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for
less consistent comparisons.

Special thanks to David Bowdoin / athletic.net for help in compiling the data.