Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2014 Girls 6A Projections 1 1 Ella Donaghu 18:30.0 11 Grant 2 2 Nicole Griffiths 18:55.1 11 Sunset 3 3 Sara Tsai 18:59.3 12 South Eugene 4 -- Erin Gregoire 19:00.3 12 Beaverton 5 4 Audrey Huelskamp 19:13.3 11 Sunset 6 5 Gracie Todd 19:22.4 12 Sheldon 7 6 Kelly Makin 19:24.1 9 Sunset 8 7 Lacey Conner 19:24.9 11 St Mary's 9 -- Kennedy Allen 19:26.2 11 David Douglas 10 8 Alyssa Foote 19:27.7 11 Aloha 11 -- Brooke Chuhlantseff 19:31.8 11 West Salem 12 9 Sydney Brieher 19:36.6 10 Wilson 13 10 Nicole McCullough 19:38.5 11 Jesuit 14 11 Aimee Piercy 19:40.7 11 Jesuit 15 12 Dylan Hite 19:41.0 12 Jesuit 16 13 Molly McCullough 19:42.0 12 St Mary's 17 14 Victoria Haynes 19:43.3 11 South Medford 18 15 Taylor Nickel 19:44.7 11 Aloha 19 16 Kim Sanders 19:45.3 10 Jesuit 20 17 Isabel Huelskamp 19:46.1 11 Sunset 21 -- Madison Willhoft 19:50.1 9 North Salem 22 18 Cali Corkran 19:53.2 9 Sunset 23 19 Maia Edwards 19:55.4 10 Clackamas 24 20 Lucy O'Sullivan 19:57.5 12 St Mary's 25 21 Hannah Lavier 19:57.8 9 Central Catholic 26 -- Brynne Merkley 19:58.9 12 David Douglas 27 22 Phacelia Cramer 20:00.6 12 South Eugene 28 23 Ellie Kallgren 20:02.0 12 Jesuit 29 24 Lara Rix 20:03.1 10 St Mary's 30 25 Alexa Bailey 20:04.3 12 Aloha 31 26 Olivia Stein 20:05.3 12 Wilson 32 -- Emma Wren 20:07.2 12 Cleveland 33 (27) Jocelyn Lauderback 20:09.8 10 Sunset 34 28 Libby Kokes 20:10.8 12 Grant 35 (29) Grace Becker 20:13.2 10 Jesuit 36 (30) Zoe Fanning 20:14.2 11 Jesuit 37 31 Whitney Rich 20:14.3 11 McMinnville 38 -- Jenna Anderson 20:16.6 11 Roseburg 39 32 Kate Patterson 20:17.1 11 St Mary's 40 33 Casey Sauter 20:17.7 11 South Eugene 41 34 Victoria Boechler 20:18.5 10 South Eugene 42 35 Rennie Kendrick 20:18.8 11 Grant 43 36 Rubi Vergara-Grind 20:21.5 12 Forest Grove 44 (37) Rowan Halsey 20:22.1 9 St Mary's 45 38 Annie Richards 20:23.3 11 South Eugene 46 (39) Amanda Calderwood 20:30.2 11 Sunset 47 40 Caramia Mestler 20:31.0 9 Sheldon 48 (41) Abby Diess 20:31.1 12 St Mary's 49 42 Lela Stemple 20:32.2 12 South Medford 50 -- Johanna Briscoe 20:36.7 10 West Linn 51 43 Delaney Hartmann 20:38.6 10 Franklin 52 44 Hannaly Duff-McGau 20:38.6 12 Tigard 53 45 Alexa Hayes 20:41.8 9 Clackamas 54 46 Thea Foulk 20:42.7 11 Grant 55 47 Lindy Voss 20:45.0 10 Sherwood 56 48 Kaari Guelsdorf 20:46.3 9 Oregon City 57 -- Kailey Doutt 20:49.5 9 McNary 58 -- Annika Steele 20:51.1 10 Lincoln 59 49 Sage Czelder 20:55.7 11 Aloha 60 (50) Delaney Bloomer 20:56.3 9 South Eugene 61 (51) Brighton Glassman 20:57.0 12 South Eugene 62 52 Anna Martinez 20:58.3 10 Aloha 63 53 Elizabeth Dean 20:58.4 12 Tigard 64 54 Miranda Nelson 21:00.5 12 Oregon City 65 55 Kendra Zimmerdahl 21:02.7 12 Wilson 66 56 Samantha Nizich 21:03.2 11 Central Catholic 67 57 Marley Johnson 21:05.5 10 Tigard 68 58 Emma McCausland 21:06.2 12 Central Catholic 69 (59) Heather Kristoff 21:07.3 10 Aloha 70 -- Rachel Chao 21:09.3 12 Reynolds 71 -- Anika Rasubala 21:10.2 11 McKay 72 60 Sam Mckibbon 21:11.5 12 Sherwood 73 61 Hannah Berdahl 21:12.1 9 Forest Grove 74 62 Madison Budge 21:12.9 12 Sherwood 75 63 Allie Edwards 21:13.4 9 Oregon City 76 -- Annabel Guptill 21:13.7 11 McNary 77 64 Kylie Guelsdorf 21:16.2 9 Oregon City 78 65 Jantzen Mazziotti 21:17.3 10 Sheldon 79 66 Mckenna Masterson 21:18.1 12 Tigard 80 67 Cecilia Wong 21:18.9 11 Franklin 81 68 Veronique Calmels 21:20.5 11 Tigard 82 69 Kamryn Hogan 21:23.7 11 Grant 83 70 Brooklyn James 21:23.8 9 Clackamas 84 71 Julia Green 21:26.0 12 Central Catholic 85 72 Emily Hensley 21:27.4 10 Sherwood 86 73 Molly Fettig 21:31.2 12 Sherwood 87 (74) Sophie Wynde 21:33.5 12 Grant 88 75 Lauren Hamilton 21:34.3 11 Sheldon 89 76 Isabel Leonard 21:35.9 11 Franklin 90 77 Melissa Berry 21:39.1 9 Sheldon 91 78 Mabel Miller 21:39.6 10 Franklin 92 79 Rosemary Elliot 21:39.8 10 Franklin 93 (80) Eliana Eby 21:41.5 10 Franklin 94 (81) Eleanor Tetreault 21:41.7 10 Franklin 95 82 Shiloh Najjar 21:44.8 9 Oregon City 96 83 Ellie Schnorr 21:47.4 10 Forest Grove 97 (84) Frances Conable 21:47.5 10 Grant 98 85 Giana Pedrojetti 21:48.1 10 South Medford 99 (86) Lindsey Tomasini 21:49.7 10 Aloha 100 -- Melissa Clark 21:52.0 11 McKay 101 (87) Kelly Roth 21:52.4 11 Sherwood 102 88 Ellie Schmidt 21:52.7 12 Central Catholic 103 89 Adahra Poasa 21:54.7 9 Wilson 104 90 Amy Watson 22:00.1 11 South Medford 105 (91) Carly Burkhartsmeye 22:04.0 11 Central Catholic 106 92 Shea Sims 22:06.8 10 Wilson 107 (93) Isabelle Brooks 22:09.2 9 Wilson 108 94 Sydney Peters 22:10.3 12 Clackamas 109 95 Zoe Clegg 22:12.2 12 Clackamas 110 (96) Grace Heizer 22:12.2 9 Wilson 111 97 Emily Lemons 22:12.5 12 South Medford 112 (98) Emily Kinzig 22:18.2 10 South Medford 113 99 Atalie Marshall 22:19.0 10 West Albany 114 (100) Claire Schwyhart 22:20.5 11 Central Catholic 115 (101) Madeleine Rosebrook 22:20.6 11 Sheldon 116 102 Taylor Ford 22:21.1 12 McMinnville 117 103 Kimberly Heesacker 22:21.9 12 Forest Grove 118 (104) Dana Hamilton 22:22.5 9 Sheldon 119 (105) Natalie Pihulak 22:25.0 9 Clackamas 120 106 Maddie Rollins 22:26.2 9 McMinnville 121 (107) Corina Stilwell 22:34.1 11 Oregon City 122 (108) Jenna Beyer 22:35.8 11 Oregon City 123 109 Avery Moen 22:37.9 10 West Albany 124 (110) Courtney Beard 22:40.0 12 Clackamas 125 111 Elissa Anderson 22:40.2 10 Forest Grove 126 (112) Hannah Case 22:42.7 11 South Medford 127 (113) Bridgett Palmer 22:52.7 12 Sherwood 128 114 Alyssa Moreland 22:53.5 9 McMinnville 129 (115) Kela Apau 22:55.1 12 Tigard 130 (116) Bailey Hardinge 23:00.6 11 Tigard 131 117 Emma Latta 23:00.9 12 West Albany 132 (118) Brittany Pitarresi 23:05.2 10 Forest Grove 133 119 Jenna Berg 23:08.5 9 West Albany 134 120 Jessica Noyes 23:11.9 11 McMinnville 135 121 Elena Conser 23:18.7 12 West Albany 136 (122) Karissa Renyer 23:21.9 11 West Albany 137 (123) Lydia Gronseth 23:23.4 11 Forest Grove 138 (124) Josie Hall 23:29.4 9 McMinnville 139 (125) Konomi Chiba 23:34.7 12 McMinnville 140 (126) Desarae Kopplien 24:42.5 10 West Albany 1) Sunset 2 - 4 - 6 - 17 - 18 - (27) - (39) = 47 2) Jesuit 10 - 11 - 12 - 16 - 23 - (29) - (30) = 72 3) St Mary's 7 - 13 - 20 - 24 - 32 - (37) - (41) = 96 4) South Eugene 3 - 22 - 33 - 34 - 38 - (50) - (51) = 130 5) Aloha 8 - 15 - 25 - 49 - 52 - (59) - (86) = 149 6) Grant 1 - 28 - 35 - 46 - 69 - (74) - (84) = 179 7) Sheldon 5 - 40 - 65 - 75 - 77 - (101) - (104) = 262 8) Wilson 9 - 26 - 55 - 89 - 92 - (93) - (96) = 271 9) Tigard 44 - 53 - 57 - 66 - 68 - (115) - (116) = 288 10) Central Catholic 21 - 56 - 58 - 71 - 88 - (91) - (100) = 294 11) Oregon City 48 - 54 - 63 - 64 - 82 - (107) - (108) = 311 12) Sherwood 47 - 60 - 62 - 72 - 73 - (87) - (113) = 314 13) Clackamas 19 - 45 - 70 - 94 - 95 - (105) - (110) = 323 14) South Medford 14 - 42 - 85 - 90 - 97 - (98) - (112) = 328 15) Franklin 43 - 67 - 76 - 78 - 79 - (80) - (81) = 343 16) Forest Grove 36 - 61 - 83 - 103 - 111 - (118) - (123) = 394 17) McMinnville 31 - 102 - 106 - 114 - 120 - (124) - (125) = 473 18) West Albany 99 - 109 - 117 - 119 - 121 - (122) - (126) = 565 Course adjustments applied this year: GVC +45.9 Metro +38.3 MHC +29.7 PIL +23.9 SOC +10.8 TRL +23.1 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
