Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2005 Girls 4A Projections League State Adj Score 1 Claire Michelle Clackamas 18:21 18:31 17:55 1 2 Sheryl Page (12) Sandy 18:18 18:28 18:10 - 3 Shelby Brennan (10) Aloha 18:09 18:34 18:10 - 4 Kris Thomasberg Redmond 18:11 18:36 18:20 2 5 Jennifer Macias Hermiston 18:27 18:52 18:28 - 6 Alyssa O'Connor Summit 18:13 18:38 18:30 3 7 Natalie Hemphill (12) Ashland 19:33 19:18 18:30 4 8 Casey Masterson (11) Sheldon 18:53 18:53 18:40 5 9 Marsha Lampi (11) Lincoln 19:08 19:18 18:50 6 10 Taylor Nowlin West Linn 19:24 19:34 18:55 7 11 Maren Westby (10) West Salem 18:49 19:14 18:56 - 12 Sarah Boyd (9) Newberg 18:52 18:57 - 13 Michelle Dettmann (10) Centennial 18:47 18:58 8 14 Erin Jones Hood River 18:34 18:59 - 15 C. Trowbridge (12) Franklin 19:17 19:27 19:05 - 16 Bailey Schutte (12) Jesuit 18:41 19:06 9 17 Anna Imperati (12) Jesuit 18:45 19:10 10 18 Anne Murphy-Hagan (12) St. Mary's 19:24 19:35 19:10 - 19 Katie Evans (12) Canby 19:37 19:42 19:20 11 20 Katie Sullivan (11) Jesuit 18:57 19:22 12 21 Michelly Foley Crook County 18:58 19:23 - 22 Lauren Sharp (12) South Eugene 19:52 19:52 19:25 13 23 Sara McCune (12) Crescent Valley 19:02 19:27 14 24 N. VanRysselberghe (9) Jesuit 19:03 19:28 15 25 Ellen Lekas (10) Sunset 19:05 19:30 16 26 Hannah Points (10) Tualatin 19:26 19:31 17 27 Lorine Cruz Grants Pass 19:46 19:31 - 28 Crissy Foster (10) Sunset 19:06 19:31 18 29 Brittney Dunn (11) North Medford 19:47 19:32 19 30 Samone Brockett (12) Sunset 19:08 19:33 20 31 C. Jowaiszas (12) Cleveland 19:27 19:37 - 32 Harmony Teitsworth (12) Lincoln 19:27 19:37 21 33 Adrienne McGuirk (10) Jesuit 19:13 19:38 22 34 Jade Severson (11) North Medford 19:56 19:41 23 35 Amelia Yeager (10) Crescent Valley 19:17 19:42 24 36 Melissa Kauffman Hood River 19:18 19:43 - 37 Maria Salazar (9) Jesuit 19:21 19:46 25 38 Erika Snawder (11) South Salem 19:22 19:47 26 39 Kristen Dewliche (10) Grant 19:41 19:51 27 40 Mackenzie Allen Redmond 19:26 19:51 28 41 Aria Hemphill (10) Ashland 20:08 19:53 29 42 Caitlin White (12) McMinnville 19:49 19:54 - 43 Whitney Pitman (10) South Eugene 19:54 19:54 30 44 Kristen Haga (11) Crater 20:11 19:56 - 45 Brookie Wilson (9) South Eugene 19:57 19:57 31 46 Devon Frazier (10) Tualatin 19:52 19:57 32 47 Tanika Woofolk (9) North Medford 20:12 19:57 33 48 Madison Randall (11) Sheldon 19:59 19:59 34 49 Tina Patel Summit 19:35 20:00 35 50 Katie Thede (11) South Salem 19:36 20:01 36 51 Elizabeth Dunfield (12) Corvallis 19:38 20:03 - 52 Megan Everetts (10) McKay 19:38 20:03 - 53 Olivia Tomlinson Oregon City 19:53 20:03 - 54 Natalie Stoll (12) Grant 19:55 20:05 37 55 Taylor Drouet (11) South Eugene 20:07 20:07 38 56 Whitney Harmon West Linn 19:57 20:07 39 57 Rachelle Hacmac Putnam 19:58 20:08 - 58 Dani Hawblitzel (11) Newberg 20:03 20:08 - 59 Allison Harney (11) St. Mary's 20:00 20:10 - 60 Lauren Harvey (11) South Eugene 20:14 20:14 40 61 Sami Parr Putnam 20:04 20:14 - 62 Statia Smith (10) North Medford 20:29 20:14 41 63 Haley Beal (9) Ashland 20:30 20:15 42 64 Becky Anderson (10) Lincoln 20:06 20:16 43 65 Rita Aulie Redmond 19:51 20:16 44 66 Lenka Stafl (12) Sheldon 20:16 20:16 45 67 Mikayla Bradbury Clackamas 20:09 20:19 46 68 Chelsea Wiens (11) Dallas 20:14 20:19 - 69 Bridget Helgerson (12) Jesuit 19:58 20:23 47 70 Meryl Butcher Clackamas 20:13 20:23 48 71 Tera Stegner (12) Barlow 20:17 20:27 49 72 Audrey Botti (9) Sunset 20:04 20:29 50 73 Laura Hooton Summit 20:04 20:29 51 74 Missy Lawler (11) Reynolds 20:20 20:30 - 75 Tracy Hruby (12) Crescent Valley 20:07 20:32 52 76 Kelsey McCoy (11) Centennial 20:23 20:33 53 77 Natalie Pittenger West Linn 20:25 20:35 54 78 MacKenzie Entrikin (9) Crescent Valley 20:11 20:36 55 79 Erica Brabeck (10) Tualatin 20:32 20:37 56 80 Heather Clear Redmond 20:13 20:38 57 81 Natalie Stafl (12) Sheldon 20:40 20:40 58 82 Megan Gex (12) Canby 20:36 20:41 59 83 Alyssa Taylor (11) Ashland 20:56 20:41 60 84 Sara Wrightman Summit 20:17 20:42 61 85 Lena Sessions (12) South Eugene 20:44 20:44 62 86 Amanda Welter (9) Tualatin 20:39 20:44 63 87 Chelsea Spitzer West Linn 20:36 20:46 64 88 Betty Garcia Redmond 20:23 20:48 65 89 Stephanie Walters Clackamas 20:40 20:50 66 90 Sophie Distefano (11) Ashland 21:05 20:50 67 91 Nicole Ramerez (11) Barlow 20:40 20:50 68 92 Jeanette Jones (11) Tualatin 20:46 20:51 69 93 Sarah Bernert West Linn 20:41 20:51 70 94 Hillary Sharpe Summit 20:27 20:52 71 95 Betsy Kolberg (9) Lincoln 20:43 20:53 72 96 Katherine Barnhart (11) Sheldon 20:53 20:53 73 97 Amber Rainwater (11) Centennial 20:45 20:55 74 98 Amy Nelson (11) Sheldon 21:01 21:01 75 99 Maddie Byers (11) Lincoln 20:52 21:02 76 100 Erica Hultz (10) Ashland 21:21 21:06 77 101 Carlissa Mares Redmond 20:42 21:07 78 102 Erin McKeighan (12) Tualatin 21:04 21:09 79 103 Andrea Dittmer Clackamas 20:59 21:09 80 104 Cailtynn Farrrens (12) Crescent Valley 20:44 21:09 81 105 Maddie Rousseau (9) Sunset 20:45 21:10 82 106 Angie Otteson (12) Barlow 21:01 21:11 83 107 Acacia Baldner Summit 20:47 21:12 84 108 Rebekah Guenther Clackamas 21:03 21:13 85 109 Margo Otteson (9) Barlow 21:04 21:14 86 110 Megan Wasteney (11) Lincoln 21:07 21:17 87 111 Abbey Gillette (10) Barlow 21:11 21:21 88 112 Ali Duffens (10) Sunset 20:57 21:22 89 113 Alyssa Kennell (9) Centennial 21:13 21:23 90 114 Hannah Clark (12) Ashland 21:38 21:23 91 115 Kate Alexander (12) Tualatin 21:18 21:23 92 116 Hannah Lakehomer (12) South Eugene 21:24 21:24 93 117 Rachel Raspberry (9) South Salem 20:59 21:24 94 118 Rachel Seigeur West Linn 21:15 21:25 95 119 Bethany Laubacher Summit 21:03 21:28 96 120 Jasmin Volk (9) Lincoln 21:18 21:28 97 121 Kelsey Gerber West Linn 21:21 21:31 98 122 Adrienne Baglien (10) Canby 21:27 21:32 99 123 Davina Leyva (10) North Medford 22:00 21:45 100 124 Lynette Blunck (10) Canby 21:42 21:47 101 125 Sky Swan Clackamas 21:38 21:48 102 126 Stephanie Stickels (11) Sheldon 21:49 21:49 103 127 Annika Sullivan (10) Grant 21:40 21:50 104 128 Bridgett Hass (12) Crescent Valley 21:31 21:56 105 129 Julia Liedel (11) Grant 21:47 21:57 106 130 Kylie Moore (10) South Salem 21:32 21:57 107 131 Katie Walker (12) Centennial 21:48 21:58 108 132 Hannah Wright (11) Canby 22:00 22:05 109 133 Casey Gifford (10) Crescent Valley 21:41 22:06 110 134 Kristi LaDuke (11) South Salem 21:42 22:07 111 135 Sarah Hartley Redmond 21:46 22:11 112 136 Renae Stockwell (11) Canby 22:08 22:13 113 137 Alma Chapa (11) Grant 22:05 22:15 114 138 Ginny Edwards (9) Sunset 21:51 22:16 115 139 Anna Tkebuchava (11) Centennial 22:07 22:17 116 140 Katie Price (12) Canby 22:14 22:19 117 141 Alethea Strauser (10) South Salem 22:05 22:30 118 142 Julianne Pike (10) Grant 22:23 22:33 119 143 Alicia Preston (12) North Medford 22:48 22:33 120 144 Brittany Capps (12) Centennial 22:33 22:43 121 145 Kaity Kernan (10) Grant 22:37 22:47 122 146 Katie Taylor (10) South Salem 22:26 22:51 123 147 Katie Servoss (11) North Medford 23:10 22:55 124 148 Leah Gustafson (10) Barlow 23:07 23:17 125 149 Katie Chausse (11) Barlow 23:23 23:33 126 1. (68) Jesuit - 9 - 10 - 12 - 15 - 22 - 25 - 47 (#1 ranked) 2. (152) South Eugene - 13 - 30 - 31 - 38 - 40 - 62 - 93 (#2 ranked) 3. (186) Sunset - 16 - 18 - 20 - 50 - 82 - 89 - 115 (#3 ranked) 4. (196) Redmond - 2 - 28 - 44 - 57 - 65 - 78 - 112 (#5 ranked) 5. (202) Ashland - 4 - 29 - 42 - 60 - 67 - 77 - 91 (#11 ranked) 6. (215) Sheldon - 5 - 34 - 45 - 58 - 73 - 75 - 103 (#10 ranked) 7. (216) North Medford - 19 - 23 - 33 - 41 - 100 - 120 - 124 (#13 ranked) 8. (218) Lincoln - 6 - 21 - 43 - 72 - 76 - 87 - 97 (#8 ranked) 9. (221) Summit - 3 - 35 - 51 - 61 - 71 - 84 - 96 (#4 ranked) 10. (225) Crescent Valley - 14 - 24 - 52 - 55 - 81 - 105 - 110 11. (234) West Linn - 7 - 39 - 54 - 64 - 70 - 95 - 98 (#6 ranked) 12. (237) Tualatin - 17 - 32 - 56 - 63 - 69 - 79 - 92 (#9 ranked) 13. (241) Clackamas - 1 - 46 - 48 - 66 - 80 - 85 - 102 (#7 ranked) 14. (333) Centennial - 8 - 53 - 74 - 90 - 108 - 116 - 121 (#12 ranked) 15. (374) South Salem - 26 - 36 - 94 - 107 - 111 - 118 - 123 16. (374) Barlow - 49 - 68 - 83 - 86 - 88 - 125 - 126 17. (379) Canby - 11 - 59 - 99 - 101 - 109 - 113 - 117 18. (388) Grant - 27 - 37 - 104 - 106 - 114 - 119 - 122 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack, but for the most part, results tracked pretty well from one meet to the next for teams and individuals. The key was coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Danner, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. Summit and Ashland proved to be the most difficult teams to pinpoint, as their times varied widely from one course to the next, irrespective of course difficulties. My previous estimate (prior to the IMC and SOC results coming in) had Summit at 2nd and Ashland at 4th, but their league results led to a much more conservative prediction, at least for Summit. Interestingly, Summit moved up to 4th in the final week poll, up from 9th I believe.
