Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2008 Boys 6A Projections # League State 1 Elijah Greer 15:52.0 16:02 Sr Lake Oswego 2 Cullen Wannarka 15:52.5 16:03 So West Linn 3 Christian Burger 15:48.4 16:04 Sr Jesuit 4 Ben Demaree 15:49.6 16:06 Jr Jesuit 5 Peter Slauson 16:30.2 16:10 Jr Central Catholic 6 Andy Kiyokawa 15:53.5 16:10 Sr Jesuit 7 Patrick Maag 15:56.2 16:12 Sr Jesuit 8 John Paden 16:03.3 16:13 Jr Lake Oswego -- Alex Emberlin 15:59.0 16:15 Sr Westview -- Alex Anderson 16:04.6 16:15 Sr Lakeridge 9 Adrian Unkeles 16:07.6 16:17 Sr Lincoln 10 Cesar James-Perez 16:01.0 16:17 Sr Southridge 11 Drew Jordan 16:16 16:22 Jr North Medford 12 Taylor West 16:12.0 16:22 So West Linn 13 Ian Walch 16:10 16:22 Jr Tigard 14 Eamonn Kerr-Daly 16:19 16:25 Sr South Eugene 15 Cody Hughes 16:17.1 16:25 Sr South Salem 16 Sammy Kirtner 16:20 16:26 Sr South Eugene 17 Dalton Petursson 16:09.7 16:26 Sr Jesuit -- Jason Waldram 16:11.0 16:27 Sr Aloha 18 Kevin Oliver 16:15 16:27 Sr Tualatin 19 Willie Milam 16:13.8 16:30 Jr Jesuit 20 Curran Carlile (?) 16:30 Jr Central Catholic 21 Winston Neville 16:15.0 16:31 Sr Jesuit -- Toby Maunu 16:52.0 16:32 Sr Sandy -- Matthew Melancon 16:32 16:38 So Sheldon -- Devin White 16:32.2 16:40 Sr McKay -- Carey Miller 16:34.6 16:43 Sr North Salem -- Nick Robbins 16:32 16:44 Jr Forest Grove 22 Isaac Dalke 16:35.5 16:45 Sr Lincoln -- Paden Snell 16:38.7 16:47 Sr Redmond 23 Samot Turina 17:08.7 16:49 Sr Central Catholic 24 Paul Hoard 16:39.4 16:49 Sr Lake Oswego 25 Timothy Plunkett 16:38 16:50 Sr Tualatin -- Kyle Dreibelbis 16:39 16:51 Jr McMinnville 26 Zane Rogers 16:40 16:52 Sr Tigard 27 Kevin Wooley 17:12.8 16:53 Jr Reynolds -- Badane Sultessa 17:14.3 16:54 So Centennial 28 Marshall Beranek 16:45.9 16:54 Jr South Salem -- Josue Rodriguez 16:46.7 16:55 Jr Sprague -- Yonny Castillo 17:17.5 16:58 So Hood River 29 JJ Campbell 16:51.4 16:59 Jr West Salem -- Santana Alvarez 16:48 17:00 Sr Newberg 30 David Huddleston 16:55 17:01 So North Medford -- Seth Troisi 16:50.8 17:01 Sr Lakeridge -- Jeff Hopkins 16:51.6 17:02 Sr Clackamas -- Wes Hughes 17:22.4 17:02 Sr Sandy -- Zach Newsom 16:45.6 17:02 So Sunset 31 Wasil Ahmed 17:25.0 17:05 So Central Catholic 32 Ryan Humphrey 16:54 17:06 Sr Tigard 33 Patrick Brown 16:50.9 17:07 Jr Southridge 34 Johnny Panaccione 16:51.4 17:07 Sr Southridge 35 Bjorn Kjellstrand 16:58.4 17:08 Sr Lincoln 36 Ian Burgess 16:58.8 17:09 So Franklin -- Holden Rennaker 16:59.1 17:09 Sr Grant -- Jesse Otto 16:52.8 17:09 Sr Westview 37 Ammon Ebert 17:03 17:09 Jr North Medford 38 Tim Donnelly 17:00.4 17:10 So West Linn 39 Michael Williams 16:58 17:10 So Tualatin 40 Scott McCann 17:05 17:11 Jr South Eugene -- Dan Fass 17:07 17:13 Jr Roseburg -- Alessandro Pia 17:02 17:14 Sr Newberg 41 Will Downey 17:02 17:14 Sr Tualatin -- Chris Olsen 17:05.2 17:15 Sr Putnam 42 Dylan Hallums 17:04 17:16 Sr Tigard 43 Chris Daniels 17:06.1 17:16 Sr West Linn 44 Musa Ahmed 17:37.3 17:17 Jr Central Catholic 45 Mark Medgin 17:05 17:17 So Tigard 46 Jackson Baker 17:09.1 17:19 Fr Franklin -- Logan Osterhoust 17:15 17:21 Jr Sheldon 47 Zach Boyd-Helm 17:11.7 17:22 So West Linn 48 Han White-Duong 17:12.2 17:22 Sr Franklin -- Robert Macy 17:13.2 17:23 Jr Grant -- Caleb Patrick 17:18 17:24 Jr Sheldon -- Matias Bruzza 17:14.1 17:24 Sr Grant 49 Matt Miner 17:19.0 17:27 Jr South Salem 50 Scott Lee 17:47.6 17:28 Jr Central Catholic -- Zach Seely 17:19.8 17:30 Sr Wilson 51 Jake Taylor 17:49.7 17:30 So Reynolds 52 Daniel Lescalleet 17:51.2 17:31 Jr Reynolds 53 Brian Leeson 17:28 17:34 Sr South Eugene 54 Adrian Lohr 17:24.3 17:34 Sr Franklin 55 Andy Bennison 17:55.4 17:35 So Central Catholic 56 Tino Melton-Holdman 17:56.5 17:37 So Reynolds 57 Simon Leach 17:31 17:37 So South Eugene 58 Kurtis Semph 17:23.3 17:39 Sr Southridge 59 Sam Ringelberg 17:28.8 17:39 Jr Lincoln 60 Hugo Berteau-Pavy 17:29.8 17:40 Fr Lincoln 61 Blake Durkee 17:34 17:40 Jr North Medford 62 Schyler Dickerson 17:28 17:40 Jr Tualatin 63 Reed Oliver 17:29.7 17:40 Jr Lake Oswego 64 Allistair Koons-Farrell 17:31.7 17:42 Jr Franklin 65 William Peters 17:30 17:42 Jr Tualatin 66 Jefferson Chandler 17:33.5 17:44 So West Linn 67 Jordan Hoffman 17:36.2 17:44 Sr West Salem 68 Isaac Hayden 17:33.7 17:44 Sr Lake Oswego 69 Andrew Taylor 17:32 17:44 Sr Tigard 70 Matthew Crawford 17:36.5 17:47 Sr West Linn 71 Nick Sharpe 17:41 17:47 Jr North Medford 72 Trent Dudley 17:39.7 17:48 So West Salem 73 Kyle Reed 17:40.1 17:48 Sr South Salem 74 David Clark 17:43.2 17:51 Fr West Salem 75 Dominic Ferraris 17:45 17:57 Sr Tigard 76 James Stallkamp 17:49 18:01 So Tualatin 77 Nick Derrah 17:44.6 18:01 Sr Southridge 78 Brad Gissel 17:56 18:02 Sr South Eugene 79 Chaz Shand 17:56 18:02 Sr North Medford 80 John Bain 17:54.0 18:02 Sr South Salem 81 Brandon Weems 17:55.7 18:04 Sr South Salem 82 Jaba Mebrat 18:25.4 18:05 Jr Reynolds 83 Eric Douglas 17:54.5 18:05 Sr Lincoln 84 Tanner DeVoe 17:59.0 18:09 Jr Lincoln 85 Ben Paul 18:07 18:13 Jr North Medford 86 Daniel Bellissimo 18:13 18:19 So South Eugene 87 Hal Gordon 18:13.2 18:21 So South Salem 88 Alex Shindyapin 18:42.4 18:22 Sr Reynolds 89 Thomas Kim 18:08.0 18:24 So Southridge 90 Seth Bybee 18:18.5 18:27 Sr West Salem 91 Brian Terada 18:12.2 18:28 Sr Southridge 92 Damon Hines 18:29.0 18:39 So Franklin 93 Ben Whitenack 18:39.6 18:48 Fr West Salem 94 Nick Pettit 19:08.5 18:49 Sr Reynolds 95 Jesse Fordyce 18:44.1 18:54 So Lake Oswego 96 Sam Conklin 19:27.3 19:37 Jr Lake Oswego 97 Kelby Evans 19:30.4 19:38 Jr West Salem 98 Matt Edel 19:53.4 20:03 Jr Franklin 1) Jesuit 3 - 4 - 6 - 7 - 17 - (19) - (21) = 37 2) C. Catholic 5 - 20 - 23 - 31 - 44 - (50) - (55) = 123 3) West Linn 2 - 12 - 38 - 43 - 47 - (66) - (70) = 142 4) Tigard 13 - 26 - 32 - 42 - 45 - (69) - (75) = 158 5) Lake Oswego 1 - 8 - 24 - 63 - 68 - (95) - (96) = 164 6) South Eugene 14 - 16 - 40 - 53 - 57 - (78) - (86) = 180 7) Tualatin 18 - 25 - 39 - 41 - 62 - (65) - (76) = 185 8) Lincoln 9 - 22 - 35 - 59 - 60 - (83) - (84) = 185 9) North Medford 11 - 30 - 37 - 61 - 71 - (79) - (85) = 210 10) Southridge 10 - 33 - 34 - 58 - 77 - (89) - (91) = 212 11) South Salem 15 - 28 - 49 - 73 - 80 - (81) - (87) = 245 12) Franklin 36 - 46 - 48 - 54 - 64 - (92) - (98) = 248 13) Reynolds 27 - 51 - 52 - 56 - 82 - (88) - (94) = 268 14) West Salem 29 - 67 - 72 - 74 - 90 - (93) - (97) = 332 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For 2008, no attempt was made to manually adjust the times for top runners in each league. In the past, fudge factors were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. The idea behind these projections is there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. Unfortunately, for 2008, this was made quite difficult by the over-crowding at many of the invites which resulted in teams or individuals running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), plus the many courses of questionable length, making for little in the way of consistent comparisons.
