Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2007 Boys 6A Projections Score League State Adj 1 C. Catholic Taylor Morgan 16:07.4 15:54 15:45 2 Franklin Bryce Burgess 16:16.8 16:11 15:45 3 Jesuit Brian Manning 15:38.3 15:49 4 North Medford Josh Paul 16:00.4 16:06 16:00 -- Hood River Leo Castillo 16:13.4 16:00 -- Lakeridge Dave Marks 16:03 16:03 5 South Eugene Walker Augustyniak 15:59.9 16:05 6 Grant Nathan Knutson 16:17.7 16:11 16:05 7 Jesuit Peter Maag 15:54.1 16:06 8 C. Catholic Musa Ahmed 16:20.5 16:07 9 Clackamas John Paden 16:09 16:09 -- Sprague Forrest Jarvi 16:04.9 16:09 10 C. Catholic Joel Turkheimer 16:23.5 16:10 11 Sunset Ryan Kavanaugh 16:01.6 16:14 12 Clackamas Grant Eldridge 16:14 16:14 -- Oregon City Jacob Goertz 16:14 16:14 13 North Medford Drew Jordan 16:15.8 16:21 16:15 -- Lake Oswego Elijah Greer 16:17 16:17 14 West Salem JJ Campbell 16:12.5 16:17 15 Clackamas Zachary Marx 16:18 16:18 -- Aloha Jason Waldram 16:07.4 16:19 -- Westview Erik Myers 16:09.0 16:21 16 C. Catholic Austin Jones 16:35.6 16:22 17 McKay Devin White 16:18.0 16:22 18 C. Catholic Samot Turina 16:36.3 16:23 -- Beaverton Vincent Kirse 16:13.7 16:26 19 Jesuit Lucas Rothenberger 16:15.5 16:27 20 C. Catholic Peter Slauson 16:40.9 16:27 21 South Eugene Sammy Kirtner 16:22.6 16:28 22 North Medford Richard Zhu 16:33.4 16:29 23 West Salem Tyler Dudley 16:25.6 16:30 24 West Salem Myles Wittman 16:27.1 16:31 -- Southridge Kyle Schenone 16:19.9 16:32 -- South Salem Cody Hughes 16:28.5 16:32 25 Jesuit Patrick Maag 16:21.0 16:33 26 McKay Thomas Goodwin 16:28.9 16:33 -- Lakeridge Alex Anderson 16:33 16:33 27 Jesuit Ben Demaree 16:21.7 16:33 28 Jesuit Tim Kessler 16:22.4 16:34 29 West Linn Michael Bernert 16:39 16:39 30 Forest Grove Eric Weinbender 16:33.3 16:39 31 Grant Andrew Wong 16:45.7 16:39 32 Grant Chris Edmonds 16:46.3 16:40 -- Tualatin Timothy Plunkett 16:34.0 16:40 33 Jesuit Jake Gardner 16:28.4 16:40 34 West Linn Taylor West 16:43 16:43 35 South Eugene Ryan Graebner 16:38.4 16:44 -- Wilson Matt Hedges 16:50.2 16:44 36 Grant Preston Orr 16:51.1 16:45 -- Tualatin Kevin Oliver 16:40.2 16:46 37 Newberg Clint Cardwell 16:41.9 16:48 38 West Linn Ben Morrow 16:50 16:50 39 Franklin Jake Caplener 16:55.6 16:50 40 Newberg Santana Alvarez 16:44.9 16:51 41 Newberg Alessandro Pia 16:45.2 16:51 42 North Medford Travis Linville 16:46.0 16:51 -- Canby Nick Petshow 16:47.4 16:53 43 West Salem Jon Snyder 16:50.1 16:54 44 Sunset Arslan Quraishi 16:42.5 16:54 45 South Eugene Eamonn Kerr-Daly 16:49.4 16:55 -- Tigard Ryan Humphrey 16:49.6 16:55 46 South Eugene Casey Weinman 16:50.2 16:55 -- South Medford Joey Nelson 16:52.1 16:57 -- Redmond Paden Snell 16:53.1 16:57 47 Franklin Kevin Smith 17:04.5 16:58 48 Reynolds Daniel Vo 17:12.1 16:59 -- North Salem Michael Herrman 16:55.1 16:59 -- Sheldon Matthew Melancon 16:55.6 17:01 49 C. Catholic Curran Carlile 17:17.10 17:04 -- Sandy Toby Maunu 17:19.8 17:06 50 Reynolds Bobby Ellis 17:20.8 17:07 51 Forest Grove Dusty Klein 17:00.9 17:07 52 Grant Holden Rennaker 17:13.3 17:07 53 Sunset Armand Reitz 16:55.3 17:07 54 Newberg Joseph Pia 17:02.4 17:08 55 Forest Grove Daniel Rooker 17:03.1 17:09 56 West Linn Cullen Wannarka 17:10 17:10 57 South Eugene Zach Schneider-Lynch 17:05.0 17:10 58 McKay Zach Jabin 17:06.1 17:10 59 Forest Grove Nick Robbins 17:04.5 17:11 60 Grant Paul Balmer 17:18.1 17:12 -- Wilson Vince Corson 17:19.8 17:13 61 Forest Grove Nick Wallace 17:07.8 17:14 -- Lincoln Isaac Dalke 17:20.4 17:14 62 West Salem Trent Dudley 17:09.6 17:14 63 Newberg Danny Minor 17:12.2 17:18 -- Lincoln Adrian Unkeles 17:25.5 17:19 64 South Eugene Brian Leeson 17:15.1 17:20 65 Reynolds Austin Martin 18:18.5 18:05 17:20 -- Sheldon Caleb Patrick 17:17.1 17:22 -- Sheldon Geoff Moore 17:17.5 17:23 66 Clackamas Jeff Hopkins 17:24 17:24 -- Hood River Yonny Castillo 17:37.4 17:24 67 West Linn Taylor Kolasinski 17:25 17:25 68 Sunset Paul Graves 17:12.9 17:25 69 West Salem Guthrie Straw 17:21.0 17:25 70 North Medford Sean Lansing 17:20.5 17:26 71 Sunset Riley Brogan 17:14.7 17:26 -- Centennial Michael DeTienne 17:39.1 17:26 72 Clackamas Cody Visscher 17:31 17:31 73 West Salem Trevor Carey 17:26.8 17:31 74 West Linn Neil Rajput 17:32 17:32 75 Sunset Aaron Back 17:20.8 17:33 76 McKay Juan Cruz 17:32.3 17:36 77 Grant Alberto Chapa 17:43.4 17:37 78 West Linn Chris Daniels 17:37 17:37 79 Franklin Nathaniel Kielholtz 17:43.7 17:37 80 Reynolds Kevin Wooley 17:53.1 17:40 81 Sunset Charlie Barber 17:30.9 17:43 82 Reynolds Brent Raleigh 17:59.7 17:46 83 McKay Leo Reyes 17:42.2 17:46 84 North Medford Chaz Shand 17:41.0 17:46 85 Franklin Lucas Van Meter 17:55.1 17:49 86 Newberg Tyler Magill 17:49.1 17:55 87 North Medford Joey McDougall 17:53.5 17:59 88 Forest Grove Andy Jerrett 17:58.4 18:04 89 Reynolds Ryan Lane 18:18.3 18:05 90 Franklin Ian Burgess 18:12.3 18:06 91 Franklin Han White-Duong 18:14.7 18:08 92 Clackamas Keven Watson 18:09 18:09 93 Newberg Tanner Clark 18:02.7 18:09 94 Forest Grove Quinn Johnston 18:03.0 18:09 95 Clackamas Montana Brown 18:16 18:16 96 McKay Nick Rhein 18:14.8 18:19 97 Reynolds Daniel Lescalleet 18:34.7 18:21 98 McKay Dylan Arp 18:28.1 18:32 1) Central Catholic 1-8-10-16-18 (20-49) = 53 2) Jesuit 3-7-19-25-27 (28-33) = 81 3) North Medford 4-13-22-42-70 (84-87) = 151 4) South Eugene 5-21-35-45-46 (57-64) = 152 5) Grant 6-31-32-36-52 (60-77) = 157 6) West Salem 14-23-24-43-62 (69-73) = 166 7) Clackamas 9-12-15-66-72 (92-95) = 174 8) West Linn 29-34-38-56-67 (74-78) = 224 9) Newberg 37-40-41-54-63 (86-93) = 235 10) Sunset 11-44-53-68-71 (75-81) = 247 11) Franklin 2-39-47-79-85 (90-91) = 252 12) Forest Grove 30-51-55-59-61 (88-94) = 256 13) McKay 17-26-58-76-83 (96-98) = 260 14) Reynolds 48-50-65-80-82 (89-97) = 325 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. Unfortunately, for 2007, this was made quite difficult by the over- crowding at many of the invites which resulted in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for little in the way of consistent comparisons. Grant's adjustment is based largely on those of other teams, as they were absent from too many of the key invites for consistent comparisons.
