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Conway
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First off I read TFN last night ... And interestingly enough the editorial this month was on the Euro circuit, mostly complints .. And one of the biggest complaints was the use of rabbits ... And about ElG's races and their predictability and how boring they are as they are simplsy time trials for him and NO ONE attempts to race against him !!!!!

Oddly my biggest reason for NOT wanting to vote him #1 ... He doesn't have to compete !!! I agree with Dan regarding KK's use of a pace setter ... But sooooo much more difficult to achieve excellence over a marathon than it is over 1500 !!!!! Whether you are using a pace setter or not !!! Pace setter only lasts for so long in a marathon ... So if I am going ot vote for a "rabbit" user then I want to vote for one who for well over half the race (10 miles plus) really has to do his own work !!! I have trouble with follow and kick I win again ...

As for being undefeated ... Or not ... Try this scenario ... Two sprinters ... Both near world record ability ... Trade victories but are constantly in the 9.8x range and margins of victory are never more than say .03 .. One emerges with World Champs win in 9.76 beating all top sprinters in the race ... And had wins in the most important events - US champs, Zurich, Brussells, Paris, among others ... Only loses to "the other guy" and never by more than .03 ... On the other hand ElG has his usual season ... Runs a couple of 3:28's and wins Worlds in 3:30.25 ... These appear to be the two best athletes hands down ... Who is your #1 ???

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the percentages are actually fairly similar for how far the rabbits go in both the marathon and 1500... I would venture to guess that comparison is a wash, just as I don't think it's any harder to achieve excellence in the marathon. Maybe harder to maintain it (due to the pounding and limited number of opportunities per year), but not any harder to achieve it. You're either good or you're not...

With your undefeated vs. highly competitive scenario, I would vote for the sprinter who lost a few races but in great battles (although, by that reasoning, Ato should have garnered some AOY consideration...). However, we don't really have such a situation, so I'd consider it a moot point at present... Smile Losing to 60+ people in one race heavily damages any such comparisons.

Where KK might have an edge over ElG is that his big wins have come against arguably stronger fields, with 3 or 4 guys challenging the all-time list each time out.

Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure a simple comparison of % distance covered by rabbits would accurate here ... Most rabbits in a 1500 go to the final lap or just short .. Leaving only 400m or so left to be covered ... In a marathon by that % the rabbit would be dropping off around the 20 mile mark ... Leaving the hardest part of the race to go whereas in the 1500 the rabit helps thru the middle part of the race, which is the hardest !!!! So I htink ElG gets much more from his rabbits than does KK .. But that is neirther here nor there ... As you have stated a couple of times KK did place 65th although personally I do not hold that against him ... A major let down after a 2:05 is much more excusable than after say a 2:26 ...

As for the scenario I set forth I did that because a) it is almost the case this year (Tim had a couple losses too many to Mo) and b) it is almost assuredley going to happen next year between Tim and Mo and maybe Dwain ... I say maybe Dwain because I don't expect him to race them as frequently next year for obvious reasons ...

But I would hope that competiton is what drives this sport ... And to me the top athletes turn back adverse challenges ... And ElG just doesn't have to do that ... Not his fault mind you ... But still it is there ...

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem I have with your hypothetical situation and applying it to Tim/Dwain/Mo is that there were far too many very unexceptional times and placings from that group. They were mixing it up, but not always in AOY-type fashion...

Quote:
Most rabbits in a 1500 go to the final lap or just short .. Leaving only 400m or so left to be covered ... In a marathon by that % the rabbit would be dropping off around the 20 mile mark ... Leaving the hardest part of the race to go whereas in the 1500 the rabit helps thru the middle part of the race, which is the hardest !!!!

I've never run a marathon, so I'm only guessing here... The last 3-6 miles are considered the kick for a good runner, which would seem pretty comparable to the last 200-400m of a 1500m. As long as the rabbits get them to a similar stage of the race on pace, the relative difficulty of different portions would seem a lesser consideration.

Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With Tim/Mo/Dwain when the best ever go at it the results will not always be WR level ... We have already determined that that is near impossible ... So what does become important is how well they compete against each other ... The majority of their competitions were in the 10.0x range which is foreign territory to all but the most elite in history ...

Here is my general problem with the "undefeated = best athlete" theory ... If an athlete can go through a season at the elite level in undefeated fashion then we are either witnessing the greatest athlete ever in the event (a la Moses, Bubka), OR witnessing an event in a down stage in which the competition is NOT of the highest caliber (a la Jones, Guevara, Radcliff) ...

My idea of the ideal event (in terms of competitiveness across the board) is the 110H ... You can put together a field of 8 in which top to bottom deviation is >.2sec ... In most races one of 3 or 4 entered could concievably win and NEITHER would be an upset ... WR potential exists when they all line up ... And the scenario I outline earlier for the men's 100 could EASILY happen here in any given year !!! It should be a given that the leader of this event in any given year shold be in contention for AOY ... But odds are that that individual will NEVER be undefeated !!! Yet could run 12.88, win gold, average 13.00 in his victories and still take a few losses !!! Could easily happen ... Same for the 200 ... However an undefeated season in the 400 means little to me and hasn't since the departures of Lewis, Watts, and Everett around '93 ... Since then there has only been one individual in that class - MJ ... He dominated but NOT against like competition ... He dominated against lesser competition ... NOT his fault ... Just the roll of the dice and when he emerged ...

Most competitive events right now:

Men's 100
Men's 110H
Men's 400H
Men's 800
Men's 3000 ST
Men's SP
Men's MAR

Women's nothing

To me it depends on what kingdom you're ruling !!

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree for the most part, but...

Quote:
The majority of their competitions were in the 10.0x range which is foreign territory to all but the most elite in history ...

Well, if we're talking historical time comparisons, then even ElG's bad races are foreign to almost everyone in history!

Quote:
If an athlete can go through a season at the elite level in undefeated fashion then we are either witnessing the greatest athlete ever in the event ..., OR witnessing an event in a down stage in which the competition is NOT of the highest caliber

Or both...

Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dan wrote:
I agree for the most part, but...

Quote:
The majority of their competitions were in the 10.0x range which is foreign territory to all but the most elite in history ...

Well, if we're talking historical time comparisons, then even ElG's bad races are foreign to almost everyone in history!

Dan


Correct ... Ergo he has no competition .. He runs rabbit aided time trials ... So the question is how do you then rate him against others and their events ???

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's difficult to compare, to be sure. Still, I don't think you can hold it against him that the 2nd fastest 1500m runner ever can barely stay close. If ElG weren't so superior, then others in the field would be using him as the rabbit and time trialing themselves! They just can't maintain contact long enough to do so...

In his case, I think you have to go by times and wins, as the level of competition is beyond his control. If he fails to win the major championship any given year, then that is an important competitive opportunity that reflects greatly on his overall season.

Dan
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are the details on Khannouchi's overall season, in addition to the two stellar marathons:

Quote:
Good wins at San Blas and Kyoto Half-Marathons, but a horrendous 60th place at Sapporo and a 4th place at Philly is not the kind of performance you expect from an AOY. Throw in a 3rd at Falmouth, a 4th at an Italian 10-K and a 13th at another 10-K in Puerto Rico, and that's just four wins in 10 races.

Dan
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Conway
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Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not trying to condemn him ... Just looking to give credit to those who have to work harder for their wins, have overall winning seasons, but due to being in an event where the competition is much greater, may never go undefeated ...

I don't think Mo has yet had an undefeated season ... He has a loss or two every year ... This year was abnormaly high for him ... But when you are in an event where there are so many high level competitors and the margin of error is so tight to begin with losses are going to hapen ... That in and of itself is not indicative of having run a poorly executed race ... You can run sub 9.90 in the 100 and lose !!! you can run sub 13.10 in the hurdles and lose ... Remove ElG and sub 3:30 is a guaranteed win !!!! I don't want to punish ElG but I don't want to punish Garcia or Johnson either ... Or Montgomery or Greene ... Wink

Conway
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Distance_Guru
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow some nice points by all. Thumbs Up First off I just can't bring myself to hold dominance against someone. Right now El G is to track as Sampras was to mens tennis for years. He's just better (in his event) than anyone out there and that leads to win after win with large margins of victory... boring. But hey the guy wins. I also can't hold those losses against KK, he was gearing for a second 2:05 marathon of the year not some road 10k in Pueto Rico which he was contractually obligated to run in (although not apparently to try his best). So at least in my mind he's undefeated in his two races this year. But the marathon is a strange race, with really two good marathons being all an athlete can run in any given year. And even if he is a marathoner I can't give AOY to someone that really only raced twice all year. So I'd have to go with El G. As for performance of the year. You really have a new world record by .01 seconds in the premier event in track and field vs a new world record in what is possibly the greatest marathon ever raced. I have to give that one to KK he beat the best in the world and set a world record doing it. Had Timmy set his world record with Mo going 9.79 al a Lewis and Burrell I might think differently but that didn't happen. As for the women Paula in a walk over for AOY and you can take your pick of either her 10k or marathon WR for performance of the year.

So their you have it folks: DG's picks. AOY= El G and Paula POY = Paula and KK.
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Conway
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I'm not asking for anyone's dominance to be held against them ... I am asking that all qualaity seasons be examined ... And stating that going undefeated in ande of itself is NOT the sign of most excellence ...

I find it funny that while Elg's season is heralded Sanchez' is seems to be barely given a footnote ... And Marion and Guevara receive the same treatment ... There fore there must be some basic assumptions as to quality of competition ... Can't have it conveniently both ways now can we ???

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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2002 10:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I confess to be guilty of slighting Sanchez's season. I don't know if it's the event or the athletes, but I'm somehow not overly impressed. Lack of familiarity, perhaps. I would say Jones and Guevara had comparable seasons to Sanchez, for what that's worth. I just don't see any of them having run at consistently as high a level as did El Guerrouj, competition aside.

For what it's worth, it sounds like T&FN will be selecting Radcliffe (duh) and Khannouchi for AOY. KK is benefitted by the fact that only his two marathons fit the definition of Track & Field (both T&FN and the Olympic's), so his weak showings elsewhere on the roads do not count against him.

Dan
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 4:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The difference between EL G and Sanchez is simple quality. El G had 7 times under 3:30, 2 under 2:27. Sanchez only really ran one quick time, 47.35, and even that is not the equivalent of 3:26. I also think you're being tough on El G's competition - Lagat ran under 3:28 and 6 others broke 3:32.

AOY is always difficult when there's no centrepiece to the season, ie a WC or OG. Then you have to look at the next level - golden league, this year's biggest prize. Well, they both won that. Undefeated? Too much luck involved to allow the odd defeat to really matter in a winning season. Any AOY contender will have dominated their event, whether unbeaten or not.

Then you look at quality of marks and the quality of competition and on that basis El G's season was far superior to Sanchez's. Put it this way, if El G had operated at the same level of performance quality as Sanchez, he would have been beaten regularly.

As for Khannouchi, 2 2:05s is quite something. He won the two best marathons not just of the year but ever. However, Radcliffe won the same two AND the world XC champs AND two track titles. I don't think Khannouchi can claim AOY for doing half of what the female AOY did.

Justin
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Distance_Guru
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 5:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a question for the floor.

Was Paula's year the greatest year by a runner ever :question:

And let's look at it as a entire year. She wins the world cross country title, runs the fastest non-Chinese (read; clean) 10k of all time, she wins the London marathon just a few seconds short of the world record (with a broken clock to blaim for that), then sets the world record in her second marathon of the year (and I believe career), beating the defending world record holder in the process.

I'd love to hear where you guys would rank this in terms of best years all time. I know it is tough with this being a non championship year and all but I'd love to hear your thoughts.
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