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Dan · Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2002 9:16 pm Post subject: The 100m in 2003

We certainly missed the boat in proclaiming the Women's 800m to be the event of 2002... Who would've guessed Graf would miss the season, Teter would run it roughly once, ditto for Formanova, and Mutola was limited by it hardly being contested?

In 2000, we thought the men's 200m would be the event, but that fell apart at Sydney...

So, for 2003, I'm going to hedge my bets and predict that the event will be both the men's and women's 100m! Laughing

For the men, the obvious battle shaping up between Montgomery, Greene, Chambers, and MLF, plus darkhorses such as Collins, Williams, Drummond, Gatlin, Coby Miller, Capel, and JJ Johnson, every race out could be like the 110h of a couple seasons ago.

On the women's side, the depth isn't there, but there could be a big battle brewing up front. I sense Zhanna will be better prepared next year now that some of the pressure is off her, and Marion is, well, Marion! However, I think the big revelation could be Tayna Lawrence. I'm quite curious to know what her current coaching situation is (I think I heard she's only 19?), as some good technical direction could have her running consistent low 10.8's in short order. I think we've seen the last of Inger Miler and Christine Arron, but they may still have a trick or two up their sleeves... What was Angela Williams up to this year? I don't think she'll be a threat, but she's the type that is always good for pushing the others to fast times by making them get out strong to compete.

I don't like the announcement that they're reducing the Golden League schedule from 7 down to 6 meets and doubling the jackpot to $1 million. I think that will just further de-emphasize the more rounded out (event-wise) Grand Prix meets and place even more importance on the GL events... Sad

Dan

Conway · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 8:52 am Post subject:

Well I have to agree with you ... The 100 should be THE event of the year ... At least on the men's side ... It is deeper than ever and more athletes are getting down closer to 9.8x range !!!

The Brits now have confidence in their abilities and I see both MLF and Chambers working harder than ever to prove they are better than this season indicated ... Same for Mo ... I don't think the loses hurt him as much as losing the record !!! The loses he expected I think (he knew he wasn't in shape) but I don't think he expected to lose his record !!!! I think he'll take that personally ...

Not sure about the women's event ... Zhanna and Marion should have some good races ... But that probably won't be until the Worlds !!! Zhanna I'm sure will focus on that ... And while the pack is getting closer to Marion, it is more becasue she is coming back to them not them coming down to her !!! I don't see any of hte old guard coming through ... And I am not sure who is going ot step up of the young ones ... Lawrence has potential but so much to work on ...

But that men's event should be one hot item !!!

Conway[/img]

Distance_Guru · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 11:38 am Post subject:

Distance_Guru · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 11:42 am Post subject:

As for next year, I will go with a time tested method of making decisions, when in doubt go with the choice that has the best booty Exclamation

That means that the best event next year will be the women's 100 meter hurdles. For the obvious reason Wink

_________________
Time is the fire in which we burn

Dan · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 11:47 am Post subject:

Dan · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 1:23 pm Post subject:

To expand on DG's point, and I'm sure Micah's as well if he were to join this discussion, the 100h offers the obvious attractions:

Gail Devers
Jenny Adams

However, I noticed someone else in last night's telecast:

Olena Krasovska

Anyone else?

Dan

Conway · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 1:31 pm Post subject:

Yes I did notice Olena ... I thought it was becasue she so was much behind the others ... But maybe not ... Neutral

I'm still gonna stick with the men's 100 ... Less booty but more talent ... I guess that should be more overall talent ...

Conway

Paul · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 1:44 pm Post subject:

Wasn't she closest to the camera at the start?? Quite striking!!, but slow!! But I am in Conway's corner on this one. I am sticking with the athletics part of the sport. By the way, if I see another shot of Marion cutely waving to the camera, I'm throwing a chair through the TV!! Razz

Dan · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 1:48 pm Post subject:

Yes, she was close to the camera (lane 7) and definitely slow. It looked on TV like she got 7th (tough to tell, as she was well out of the focus of the picture), but results had her a fairly distant 8th.

Don't ge me wrong, I'm not claiming that alone makes the 100h the event to watch next year, just expanding on the short list a bit... The hurdles might become what the pole vault was a couple of years ago ... who knows?

Paul, might I suggest bolting down the chairs or putting the TV behind some plexiglass? Smile

Dan

Paul · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 1:57 pm Post subject:

I thought Gail looked much better in the GP Final than I saw her in the other telecasts. The commentators were all talking about her speed between hurdles, but I think the other women are catching up. On a good day her technique over the hurdles is outstanding, and she looked very quick over the hurdles at this meet. I think this is going to be a key as she continues over the next two years.

Distance_Guru · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 2:01 pm Post subject:

Paul · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 2:12 pm Post subject:

Back to the men's 100m: Dan, Conway, Justin, how did you like that frontal view of the start?? I sense a lot of wasted motion in Chambers that won't be correctable because of his hip structure.

TM seems to be built more on the Ben Johnson platform, but without the musculature at this point. I would part with some serious cash to see a breakdown of this race like Charlie Francis gave of Ben's top races in Speed Trap. If TM puts on another 5-10 pounds of solid mass he might bust through to 28+ mph. Notice that his upper thighs are decent sized for his frame. I think he looks more compact than he is. Greene looks much bigger and has more tissue in the knee and calf area, but we will see how the 2 of them look next year.

Does Chambers remind anyone of Bob Hayes, or is my thinking fuzzy on how he looked 40 years ago.

Paul

Dan · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 2:16 pm Post subject:

Seeing Tim and Dwain side by side is definitely a contrast in physiques and styles! When did Dwain get that big? I recall him being pretty average sized maybe 2 years ago...

Tim moves very fluidly over the ground, and he may be the best example I've seen of slightly shortening the stride to maintain negative foot speed throughout the race. Super efficient. Dwain, on the other hand, looks more like a football player at the start. Lots of side to side and twisting. It almost looks like he needs all that power just to keep it all in check... He had a near perfect transition out of the drive phase in Paris, which makes sense given his build. Must take a lot of force to get that bulk moving out of the blocks, not to mention maintaining at the end!

Dan

Paul · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 3:03 pm Post subject:

As a sleeper event, I'm going with the women's 400m. If Cathy Freeman reappears on the international scene, she will turn 30 next year. Guevara will be 26. How much more improvement will we see in Ana?? Her best is still slower than Freeman's Sydney Final. And in the last half of the season we have seen her times much closer to 50 than 49. Add Merry to the mix and any upcoming youngsters and you have the makings for a competitive year especially with the GL and GP incentives. Does anyone see someone breaking 49 next season??

To me, this would be a perfect opportunity for Marion to make the leap to the longer sprints. But giving up the title of world's fastest woman is not easy to do, even by default. But it could keep her in the sport on top of an event after the 2004 Games.

Paul

Dan · Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2002 3:10 pm Post subject:

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