Run-Down Forums

Dan · Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2002 12:43 pm Post subject:

Wasn't Krummenacker somewhat injured last year?

Athens 100m squad... I'll go the safe bet with Mo, Tim, and Gatlin. The comeback of Capel and Coby Miller, JJ Johnson getting serious (and consistent), the improvement of Bernard Willaims and the other young HSI guys (whatever happened to Curtis Johnson???), plus a young upstart or two, could easily change things over the next 2 years...

Dan

Distance_Guru · Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2002 12:48 pm Post subject:

Here are his 2001 stats from the USATF site

Distance_Guru · Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2002 12:58 pm Post subject:

Dan · Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2002 1:14 pm Post subject:

He got several races in last year, so if there was any injury, it didn't affect much of the season...

Ok, DN Galan results are entered.

http://run-down.com/fantasy/

Wow, Micah took my challenge seriously, no messing around! Smile

Ironically, I figured my team would score about 150 points more than they did, based on the results I had seen (a 2nd place in the long jump only netted me 12 bonus points, which I didn't quite expect), which would have put me within exactly 0.50 points of Micah...

Conway, your consistency the past three meets is scary.

Anyone with their eye set on winning this thing ought to look out for Steve Prince (currently in 5th). He's been the one catching my scoring mistakes, so he's obviously studied the system closely, and he's moving up steadily each meet...

Graeme should get some sort of award for his foresight when saying he would never hold onto that week 1 #4 ranking...

I just realized, Monaco is Friday and then no Fantasy meets for a month, so I won't be missing anything while on vacation in a week.

Dan

Conway · Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2002 1:50 pm Post subject:

Well, let's start with my '04 100 squad

Mo Greene (and he'll be close in '0 Cool

Bernard Williams (should be hitting his stride)
Brendan Christian (will be a college freshman next year. 10.20 this year and has been making gains every year. Most importantly is dedicated to this sport)

I didn't pick Gatlin here as he is much better at 200 and will be #1 there !!!

Regarding Krummenaker, HE was interviewed after lasta weeks race (his second win) .. His comments were that he and his coach had decided to pick ONE event to focus on this year and see what happened ... That event was the 800 .. He stated that he was going to run a couple of 1500s but that his training and season were geared towards the 800 ... Interestingly enough so has Teter's ... And not so coincidentally they BOTH have PRed tremendously over 1500 !!!!! My "speed" theory of distance running is plooking real good !!! Wink

As far as the contest goes, this is one time when consistency is getting me squat !!! Embarassed

... I need a major breakthrough which I am not likely to get as my people refuse to run !!!! What I coach I am ... I have figured out what strategy I will emply next time though ... Wink

CandS · Water Boy Joined: 18 Jul 2002 Posts: 11 Location: Eugene

Thanks for the prediction about our team Dan (wife picked athletes too) but I picked Szekely and Gorelova as our hands-down top two picks.

Szekely + Gorelova = 0

Can't be that good and certainly not that smart Sad

Dan · Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2002 2:39 pm Post subject:

Conway, there's current talk on the t-and-f list that Brendan Christian may be representing Antigua, not the US...

Steve, always happy to blow someone's cover. Smile

Don't feel bad about your donuts, though. I've got more than my share of non-scorers:

Justyna Bak
Georgie Clarke
Nicole Forrester
Stephanie Graf
JJ Johnson - 100m
JJ Johnson - 200m
David Kimani
Beverly McDonald
Katharine Merry
Miguel Page

Like Conway, I definitely see where I've gone wrong with my roster selections relative to the way the scoring has gone... The big names are killing the mid-packers thus far. When the season wraps up, I'm hopeful we can come up with a more accurate scoring system for next year...

Wow, Friday's Herculis Monaco meet will be a rough one for position jockeying. Not many contested events to work with...

http://www.herculis.com/index_us.html

(click on Start List)

Dan

Conway · Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2002 10:48 am Post subject:

Yep ... I will have a totally different philosophy the next time around ... I'll go more with my gut for oone ... And not be as diversified for another .. AND - the big oen - is you not only have ot choose good athletes, but also the right event(s) that they will participate in - especially middle and long distance people !!!!

I have so much dead wood on my team it is incredible - and they're high quality athletes ... But it's still fun ... I wish more people would join in pre or post race discussions ... But hey ... One step at a time ...

Dan · Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2002 10:54 am Post subject:

I did a bit too much speculating, too... I figured I had some good low priced athletes that would pick up a few points here and there, but they've gotta get in the meets first... I would have been better off swapping them out in groups of 2 or 3 for one ringer per.

However, if I can come up with a good way to make rosters flexible by meet next year, that may all be a moot point.

Dan

Micah Ward · Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2002 3:52 am Post subject:

WOW!!!

What a meet for the Warthogs!! I can't believe I passed Conway. Can't wait for Marion and P-Block to lock horns. That should be one of the races of the year.

Just a thought on flexible rosters. Right now I think I would lean toward nonflexibility or at least a limit on how many times you can change in the season. Maybe just have one mid season adjustment but no more. I don't think I would like everyone having new rosters every week. To me, part of the fun is the uncertainty when you pick the roster. You do the best you can then you live with the results.

Dan · Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2002 6:17 am Post subject:

I agree an overhaul every week wouldn't be a good thing. I was brainstorming along the lines of: a max number of changes during the season, a max number per meet, max number per event, x number of selections per event and only 1 or 2 changes per season (to get around the problem of many events not being contested), etc.

One problem I keep coming back to with any of those scenarios is how similar everyone's roster is likely to become... There's also the issue of how to set what changes/trades are allowable. Equal or less cost, cost within a certain percentage of each other, only in the same event, etc.?

Dan

Conway · Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2002 7:17 am Post subject:

I would favor somethign along the lines of a mid season switch (or maybe twice at most) ... I could pick a kller team if I knew who was healthy, hot, competing, etc each week !!!! Would be much less spread between the teams ... And not as much fun ...

I would also think that staying within the alotted "financial"constraints would be fine ... Would basically force dollar for dollar moves regardless of the change in events ... Coudl exchange a non performing 100 guy with a competing & performing 1500 woman ... Or whatever ...

And Micah, I do believe they say in the south that even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut !!! Wink

Micah Ward · Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2002 7:46 am Post subject:

Very true...and this squirrel will chew that nut at least until tomorrow night and the Monte Carlo meet. Very Happy

I agree that too much opportunity for roster changes would make the rosters too similar and that would take a lot of the fun out of this. I would be completely satisfied to do it the same way we did this year. I'm having great fun!!! Very Happy

Dan · Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2002 1:59 pm Post subject:

Another possible route we could take next year is to allow new roster selections for each meet, but with tighter constraints, i.e. 2 selections per event but with only enough money to purchase one ringer for every 2 events. That ought to make things challenging enough to ensure variety to the rosters.

Furthermore, we could stick with the current single athlete-event pricing system (instead of trying to combine pricing across events), since we'd have the per meet selection flexibility and could even base the available event selections on what would be contested that week. Next year's selection pricing will be based on the '02 IAAF rankings tables, and we'll the '01 tables at our disposal for filling in the gaps with people who sat this year out (Graf, Merry, Wolde, Freeman, Washington, etc.). We could take it a step further by allowing "write-in" selections. For instance, say Szabo doesn't run in any 1500's (she is ranked last year, but let's ignore that for the timing) this year but is entered in it next year. If someone wanted to select her for that meet, they could write her in at a pre-determined level for write-in athletes. To keep it simple, we would go with a single write-in price across events, probably comparable to what the top athletes are worth. Up to the individual to decide if that's worth it. Smile

How's something like that sound? A lot more complicated than the current system, but food for thought...

Dan

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