Run-Down Forums Forum Index Run-Down Forums

 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch
 
Run-Down Forums Forum Index
Sprint Central
Next Up in the Sprints ???
Post new topic   Reply to topic

Post new topic   Reply to topic    Run-Down Forums Forum Index -> Sprint Central
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Conway
Olympic Medalist
Olympic Medalist


Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 9:28 am    Post subject: Next Up in the Sprints ??? Reply with quote

1968 was a most important year in the world of sprinting .. It was the altitude Games ... The Games where records were set that lasted 20 years ... Every sprint record and relay record was demolished ... But most importantly it marked the emerging dominance of the "black"sprinter - American, CArribean, African ... It marked the first all black 100 meter final ... And in the years since most championships have been won by dark skinned sprinters ...

There have been notable exceptions ... Borzov (one of my all time favs) won the sprint double in 72 .. Something not done again until Lewis in 84 ... Wells and Mennea won the sprints in the boycotted games of 80 (although Leonard and Quarrie were in attendance) .. Not for another 20 years did a challenger to that dominance come forth - Kenteris winning 2000 & 2001 gold over 200 !!!

I'm surprised it took so long ... Here in the states we have had the likes of Mark Lutz and Kevin Little who have been world class .. Little making finals in both the indoor and outdoor worlds ... Now I understand why there have been so few here in the states to reach that level, but why so few elsewhere ... The Japanese are right at the cusp of going sub 10.00 ... So when is it going ot happen ??? When is a non black going sub 10.00 ??? Or sub 44.00 ??? Mennea, Urbas and Kenteris have gone sub 20.00 and Borzov was right at 20.00 in still conditions ...

So who is going to do this ??? Can Kenteris move up or down ... Urbas up to 400 perhaps ??? One of the Japanese under 10.00 next year ... The young south African (his name escapes me right now) looked like a burner indoors then poof outdoors ... What's happned to the Germans ... And the Russians - they had a couple of 10.0x then poof ...

Periodically there are emergences - blacks in sprinting, Africans in distance ... Changes occur to established systems ... Outstanding non-black hurdlers are common place .... Where are the sprinters ???
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw a picture of Morne Nagel (the South African) recently and was surprised how un-sprinter like he looked. Looks more like a soccer player or mid-distance runner... Tough to envision his build carrying him to much faster times than he hit early this season, although even duplicating that should make him fairly competitive.

I don't know the answer to your overall question... My gut tells me Jon Entine's basic premise is right, but history has shown the occasional white sprinter to disprove the theory, so we know it's possible! I think the strength of his theory (the part he glosses over at times to make catchy points) is the notion that it's all about population probabilities. As such, there's no reason to believe a white sprinter or two won't excel, but there's equally no reason to believe we can predict who it will be or when...

Dan
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Distance_Guru
World Class
World Class


Joined: 09 Mar 2002
Posts: 1280
Location: Nebraska

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little... I've been trying to remeber that guys name for weeks now. How did he do this year? I usually see him indoor and outdoor at the US champs and then I loose track of him (possibly because of the lack of 200's in the golden league). Is he an athlete that can step up and challange Kenteris in the 200 or is he an also ran at the US national champs? I don't remeber seeing his name in the lists of young up and coming sprinter. Can he make the next level or is he topped out?
_________________
Time is the fire in which we burn
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Conway
Olympic Medalist
Olympic Medalist


Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe Little has retired ... Best of 20.10 if I am not mistaken ... Was a very good and consistent sprinter ... One of the recent best over 200 in my opinion given his consistency ...

I'm not a big fan of Entine ... While his basic premise has merit, the overall arguments he uses are full of flaws that he tries to cover over ... My position is this ... I think anyone can achive anything given enough hard work ... Easier for some than for others ... Genetically more achiveable for some than others ... But attainable none the less ... IF that is what you want to achieve ... Kenteris is a perfect example ... Regardless of what one thinks about his racing schedule, he has run under 20.10 for 3 consecutive years now ... Culminating with his 19.85 this year ... He is as fast right now as anyone out there at this distance ... There are roughly 8 or nine guys out there right now with PRs in this range (counting off the top of my head if I am wrong) ...

Europeans have been in the 44.3 range ... And I am very surprised that this is NOT an event where more challenges have not come ... Especially given that all of the sub 44's have retired !!!! And the lack of consistency from the Americans and Carribeans ...

The 100 is another story ... It just keeps getting faster !!!! If someone doesn't break that 10.00 barrier soon, that event will be lost ot all but black athletes in much the same way as the 5K & 10K are currently ...

Conway
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kevin Little, the "retired young up and comer" Smile

Little was consistent, but I never considered much different than someone like Jamie Baulch -- solid Indoor, but hardly of note Outdoor...

Quote:
But attainable none the less ... IF that is what you want to achieve ... Kenteris is a perfect example ...

He's an example that it can be done by a white athlete, but that doesn't mean anyone can do it if they want to badly enough. He may just be one of those genetic blips on the map that come along every so often...

Dan
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Conway
Olympic Medalist
Olympic Medalist


Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LUtz, Little, Kenteris, the Kentucky high school kid of 3 seasons ago ... Were they all blips ??? Or did they all just want to be sprinters ??? Is Urbas a blip ??? Borzov ?? Mennea ?? The current crop of Chinese sprinters ??? That's just way too many blips Dan !!! Laughing ...

And something I alluded ot earlier but didn't take all the way is the 110H ... Another speed event - with a technical aspect ... Plenty of high quality non blacks there !!!

And LIttle did well outdoors ... Made a couple of world finals and ran just out of the medals ... He had a very good career ... Much better than Baulch's ....

Conway
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's see... I'm not sure who Lutz is. Is Casey Combest the HS'er you're thinking of? If so, I'd say his career was a blip, whether or not he was... Sad Little had a solid career, but I just don't think his times and competitiveness were enough to tell us much about what a white sprinter is capable of in today's environment. Ditto for Urbas.

Kenteris, Borzov, and Mennea were obviously legit, but that's three people in 20 years -- pretty much once a generation or less in athletics terms.

The hurdles do seem friendlier to non-blacks, although not by much on the men's side. Not quite sure why that is, but the technical aspect could provide some racially charged theories...

Dan
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Conway
Olympic Medalist
Olympic Medalist


Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Combest was the HSer I was thinking of ... He sticks in my mind because of several things I heard about him ... His career was blip becasue of the kinds of people he asssociated with .... From what I have heard drugs are the reason he did nothign in college .... But he interestes me because from whta I've heard his background (very urban) is apparently what lead him to track and his excellent HS career ... Against the genereal theory ...

Lutz was a 70's sprinter ... Actually made the Olympic team at 200 in 76 (actually was 4th but injury to Riddick puts him in) ... Married Francie Larrieu of all people ..

Little was consistent in the 20.10 - 20.30 range ... That is arguably as good as anyone out there today ... His problem was that his career paralelled the likes of Greene, Boldon, Lewis, Fredericks, and others ... The 90's was the golden era of the 200 so far !! Whereas the 100 didn't really get going until around '96 ...

As for Borzov/Mennea/Kenteris those are the most visable obviously ... There were the likes of Woronin, Krylov, Asahara, Osovich, Zirignon, Shirvington, Savin and many others ... So there have bee nmore than the occasional handful ... Wink

Conway
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing is, other than the big 3 (Borzov, Mennea, and Kenteris, not Allen, Cassell, and Robinson Smile ), how many of those athletes would be worthy of discussion if they were not white? They might show that a white sprinter can be competitive in the sprints, but that's about all they show. Few have managed to rise above mid-pack status. I doubt even your historical knowledge can begin to count how many black sprinters have been at least equally competitive to those white sprinters you listed... Wink

Dan
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Conway
Olympic Medalist
Olympic Medalist


Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woronin was somewhat of a threat ... I menationed Wells earlier who was a threat ... The others were all sub 10.10 I belive with potential ... The problem ahs been that as they have gotten faster so has the rest of the world .. So just when the non black spriters are approaching 10.00 it really doesn't matter in terms of being competitive as you now have to go sub 10 !!! Which is why I asked the orignal question of when sub 10 and sub 44 and more sub 20 ...

Conway
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The problem ahs been that as they have gotten faster so has the rest of the world ..

Them's the breaks. Smile

Short answer: I don't know...

Dan
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Justin
Varsity
Varsity


Joined: 08 Oct 2001
Posts: 312
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

White sprinters eh? Here we go again!! Smile

At 100m, fastest white guy is Marian Woronin with 10.00 in 1984. That was something of a one-off though; he didn't again break 10.10 and was a 10.1x man more usually.

Several have broken 10.00 with a wind...Vitaliy Savin, Pietro Mennea, Peter Karlsson. Mennea also ran a legal 10.01 at altitude; Valeriy Borzov ran 10.07 in '72; Matt Shirvington ran 10.03 in '98; Frank Emmelmann ran 10.06 in '85; Johan Roussouw 10.07 in '88.

The Asian 100m record is also 10.00 and there have been a handful of 10.0x Asians, including Nobuharu Asahara (10.02 in '01) and (this year) Shingo Suetsugu.

All of which of course just emphasises the point about the utter dominance of Afro-Caribbean descended men.

At 200m it's a little less clear-cut. 20.00 is actually a superior mark to 10.00 all-time list wise but three white men have broken that barrier - Pietro Mennea (19.96 at sea level to back-up his 19.72A); Marcin Urbas (whose 19.98 I consider suspect) and Konstantinos Kederis with 19.85 this year, by far and away the best single sprint performance by a white man in history. Valeriy Borzov ran 20.00 in '72 without running through the line. Nonetheless black dominance is near complete.

HOWEVER I'd like to refine the debate a bit. What the vast majority of the world's best sprinters have in common is only superficially their colour; more interesting is that 99% of the world all-time lists draw their genetic heritage from a very small part of the world - West Africa. All US, Caribbean, South American and European black athletes are descended from either voluntary or involuntary emigrees from a few west african countries.

WHY is of course the key issue. My view is simple - all things are a combination of genetic and environmental components, in varying degrees but always both are present. This is true of both individuals and populations. It seems absurd to argue that there is not some genetic element in the dominance of West African-descended sprinters; equally, this can never be the whole or even necessarily the majority of the answer.

Linford Christie said that he was quite happy for whites to believe blacks were faster because for as long as they believed this, it would be true. Remember that when looking at sub 10 and sub 20 we are looking at freakish extremes of nature, so ANY tiny influence at grass roots level, by the time it has multiplied through the levels becomes really significant at the elite level. How many fast white kids are dissauaded from trying out at wide receiver? Not consciously, not through any form of deliberate prejudice, but through generations of subtle conditioning, fuelled by all-black sprint finals. It's hard to disbelieve the evidence of your own eyes but in refusing to do so the likelihood increases that the situation will continue.

Since we are not prepared to put limits on how fast the WR might be - I can imagine 9.70 this decade, 9.50 in my lifetime - there's obviously no reason why a white man can't break 10, especially since several have managed the superior mark of sub 20. But if subtle assumptions about black sprinting superiority operate at every level from the playground to the Olympics, few of those white kids who might compete at the top level either continue in the sport or, if they do, believe truly that they can compete. You only have to look at the burden (sometimes self-imposed) placed on any white man who even threatens to break through - Matt Shirvington, Kevin Little and Morne Nagel come to mind. How can it not affect you to be told at every turn that you are probably hugely disadvantaged from birth?

A further issue is that a huge part of the world's population - China, Indian sub-continent, most of Africa - is too poor to get a chance to compete properly. That's why I've never been as quick to damn the Chinese women as many - China is 1/4 of the world's population and the idea that they should not be any faster than rich westerners is based on nothing but prejudice. I think Ma's army was just a taster. I think there are sub 10 Chinese men waiting to be found; I have no idea how fast people from India might be but in a population of 800million or so there must be a few genetically blessed. We hardly even tap the populations in the West - track is a minority sport and there are some very fast people either not competing past school or being snapped up by other sports.

So, I refuse to believe that black dominance is either entirely genetic or entirely environmental and I refuse to believe that what we see now is necessarily the best mankind can manage. I wonder if in 50 yrs time we'll be looking at an all-Chinese all-time top 10 and trying to persuade our kids that there really was a time when black people could sprint...

Justin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Justin
Varsity
Varsity


Joined: 08 Oct 2001
Posts: 312
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS Entire's work makes it hard to argue that there is no genetic component but he is simply wrong to conclude that no white man WILL EVER hold the 100m WR. Even if blacks have a huge genetic advantage as a population, this does not mean that genetic extremes in other populations could never arise. It's less likely, if he's right about black genetic advantage, that a 9.70 white sprinter will appear, but it can never be said to have a zero possibility.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Entire's work makes it hard to argue that there is no genetic component but he is simply wrong to conclude that no white man WILL EVER hold the 100m WR.

That's my major objection to Entine's work, as I alluded to above. I gather that he writes such things for the attention grabbing aspect, probably viewing the headline statements as somehow separate from his work... He talks at length about how population genetics tell you the odds of something happening, not what a specific individual can or cannot do based on their genetics. Yet, from those averages, he then makes an absurd statement like the one you quoted. Sad Greatly weakens the overall message...

Dan
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Conway
Olympic Medalist
Olympic Medalist


Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2002 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to concur ... I have ot keep going back to preparation and opportunity ... For some there is no preparation ... For others no opportunity ... And for still others neither exists ...

Genetics exist ... There are differences in people ... But how those people develop is a comination of prepration and opportunity ... And disadvantages can be overcome ... I look at Kenteris and I do not see pure speed ... But I do see tremendous speed maintenance ... Little was a technician, but he was also very adept at turn running ... Borzov was smooth as glass .. No wasted motion or energy ... He got the most out of himself ... My point with all of these is that these individuals overcame what they lacked and maximized what they have ...

And even among black sprinters the same holds true for success ... Those at the top are tose that can maximize nd minimize - strengths and weeknesses ...

And as Justin stated, what we have so far is a very small and select pool of sprinters ... A large majority of the world is as of yet non participatory ... Much as distance running was BEFORE the Africans began to take part ... So Entine aside we have no idea what is going to happen when thees people get involved ... The Chinese have proven to be very athletically inclined in other endeavors ... What is to say that they cannot excel here ... And India and Indonesia are untapped ...

I just believe it is coming ... And Dan I think the hurdling issue is the beginning of that transition to speed ...

Conway
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Run-Down Forums Forum Index -> Sprint Central All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group